The best hitter at Kauffman Stadium the past five years is a free agent - should the Royals sign him?

Should the Royals pursue Joey Gallo?

When I started exploring potential free agents the Kansas City Royals might target with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report, the usual suspects came to mind. Outfielder Anthony Santander seemed like a great fit, especially with reports suggesting he might settle for a short-term deal this offseason. Third baseman Alex Bregman’s elite ceiling could make him the perfect running mate for Bobby Witt Jr. on the left side of the infield. And then there’s the international market—where the Royals have historically been minor players—posing an opportunity to invest in top-tier talent like right-hander Roki Sasaki. These are the kinds of players who could improve nearly any MLB roster.

But nuance always complicates reality. Kansas City doesn’t have the payroll flexibility to sign players like Bregman or Santander, let alone compete for Sasaki’s services, which might require more international bonus pool money than the Royals can allocate. Even options one tier below those names could stretch Kansas City’s financial limits. That’s just the economic reality of the game. Most MLB owners are billionaires, but they didn’t get there by making poor investments. Why would they pour excessive money into payroll unless they had cash to burn? (Looking at you, Steve Cohen.)

For Kansas City, further roster improvements this offseason are likely to come through frugality—via trades, minor-league free-agent gambles, or reliance on internal development. It’s the Royals’ way, as it has been for much of the franchise’s history.

With this in mind, let’s consider the Royals’ reality. Kauffman Stadium isn’t a ballpark where every player thrives. Yankee Stadium’s home run-friendly dimensions don’t translate to the vast expanse of Kauffman’s outfield. Conversely, high-contact hitters with speed often flourish, turning singles into doubles and stretching doubles into triples. This quirky, unique dynamic is one of baseball’s most fascinating (and occasionally frustrating) features. As Vinnie Pasquantino humorously suggested, maybe moving the fences in at Kauffman would help, but the park’s layout remains a crucial consideration for free-agent fits—especially as Kansas City inches toward a potential new stadium.

Evaluating current Royals home and road splits offers some insight, but assessing potential free agents requires examining how their skill sets translate to Kansas City’s unique dimensions. Even brief exposure to Kauffman Stadium, through visiting appearances, can reveal a player’s ability to succeed in its environment. Surprisingly, one current free agent stands out as one of the most effective hitters at Kauffman Stadium over the past five seasons.

To find this answer, I set parameters for my search. Thousands of players have logged plate appearances at Kauffman, but I focused on hitters with at least 30 plate appearances at the stadium between Opening Day 2019 and the end of 2024. This sample size offers enough data for evaluation while filtering out small-sample anomalies, like a single scorching-hot series (looking at you, Julio Rodríguez).

Next, I prioritized batted-ball performance rather than on-base skills. Walks are valuable but translate consistently across all parks. Instead, I wanted to know which players excel when putting the ball in play. Using FanGraphs’ splits tool, I filtered for performance on “balls in play.” While not a perfect metric, it provides a strong foundation for identifying hitters whose batted-ball profiles align with Kauffman Stadium’s challenges.

The results revealed some intriguing names. Among Royals hitters, Witt ranks third, while Drew Waters’ 196 wRC+ leads all Kansas City players in this split. Nelson Velázquez, who delivered a red-hot rookie season, also stands out, providing some hope for growth in 2025.

The non-Royals list yielded equally surprising results. Santander ranks second, boasting a staggering 328 wRC+ at Kauffman and an absurd 1.043 slugging percentage—not just from home runs, but from maximizing contact. Yet, he isn’t the leader. One batter stands alone atop this list, offering a surprising yet compelling free-agent target for Kansas City.

Here’s how the top dog ranks on batted balls in Kauffman Stadium—and you’re going to like this.

You’re going to like that he’s a free agent once again, and his 2024 team declined his $8 million option, making his expected 2025 contract well within the Royals’ range.

You’re going to like that, while he’s primarily played first base, he also has extensive experience in the corner outfield. In fact, he’d likely be an upgrade over either MJ Melendez or Hunter Renfroe in that role—assuming his career 5 Outs Above Average as an outfielder holds up in Kauffman Stadium.

What you’re not going to like is his name: Joey Gallo.

For casual baseball fans, Gallo’s name might not ring a bell. But for those familiar with him, you know the reputation he brings. The career 38% strikeout rate. The plate approach that could make Nick Pratto look patient by comparison. The monstrous exit velocities that once pegged him as the Texas Rangers’ next great slugger. Gallo’s boom-or-bust profile has always been polarizing, and it hit a low point in 2024. Limited to just 76 games with the Washington Nationals, he posted a career-worst 76 wRC+, a performance that made Washington’s decision to decline his mutual option an easy one. Now, Gallo is searching for what could be his sixth team in five seasons.

If only he played in Kansas City last year.

For reference, here is Joey Gallo’s spray chart from his 33 plate appearances across 15 games at Kauffman Stadium. As a notoriously pull-happy hitter, Gallo’s approach has worked just fine against Royals pitching.

While rate stats often tell the story, Gallo’s counting stats in Kansas City are worth noting too. His five home runs at Kauffman are tied for sixth-most among visiting batters over the past five seasons. And that pink dot in center field? It’s exactly as far as you think—a 450-foot blast off Mike Minor in 2021. That homer also highlights a key detail this analysis doesn’t fully account for: the quality of Royals pitching during his visits.

While the Royals made significant strides with their pitching staff last season, Kansas City’s home pitching performance over the past five years has been abysmal. Since Opening Day 2019, Royals pitchers have posted a 6.37 ERA at home, allowing a .372 wOBA to opposing hitters. For all the talk about Kauffman Stadium being tough for home run hitters, Royals pitchers have allowed an 11.2% HR/FB rate at home—above the average for visiting pitchers and just shy of the league-wide 13% rate.

Gallo’s home runs at Kauffman came off the following Royals pitchers:

• Mike Minor
• Homer Bailey
• Amir Garrett
• Nicky Lopez (yes, pitching in relief)
• Dylan Coleman

Not exactly a murderers’ row by Royals standards. This contextual asterisk is worth considering when evaluating Gallo’s success in Kansas City. Has his performance at Kauffman been more a reflection of weak pitching than a perfect fit for the park? It’s a valid question.

But here’s the real issue: is the Royals' outfield so solid that this asterisk should disqualify Gallo from consideration? The frustrating reality is that Kansas City’s outfield options—especially at the plate—are severely limited. As of now, it appears Melendez and Renfroe will open the 2025 season as the Royals’ corner outfielders. Both were clear negatives offensively and defensively last season, and the current roster doesn’t offer viable competition for either player heading into spring training.

Yes, Gallo is flawed—his high strikeout rate and streaky production have been well documented—but so are the Royals’ current outfielders. Taking a low-dollar flyer on Gallo might be far from an optimal solution, but it could still represent a marginal upgrade for a team that desperately needs more offensive firepower.

Royals fans deserve better. After years of lackluster drafting and development, compounded by below-average payroll investment, Kansas City needs more substantial and sustained roster upgrades. Last year’s postseason berth and revenue growth should have paved the way for multi-year investments in players like Bregman, Santander, or other top-tier free agents. Those are the moves that elevate both the on-field product and clubhouse culture.

However, the reality of the Royals’ current spending approach suggests they’re more likely to make minor gambles to round out the roster before heading to Arizona. Gallo could be one such gamble. The arid Arizona air might make his spring training numbers look better than they are, but his track record at Kauffman Stadium provides at least some reason for optimism. If Kansas City wants to add slugging potential to its roster, few options within their financial reach offer a higher ceiling than Joey Gallo.