Blue Jays series preview: Crossing the border

To the great north!

The Royals haven’t won a season series with the Blue Jays since 2017, but they can win it this year with one more victory this week. The Blue Jays dropped three of four against the Royals in Kansas City, sparking a five-game losing streak until they defeated the Dodgers on Sunday. The offense has been scuffling, scoring three or fewer runs in six consecutive games, and they haven’t scored more than five runs in a game since April 6.

Kansas City Royals (17-12) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (14-15) at Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON

Royals: 4.59 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 3.10 runs allowed/game (1st)

Blue Jays: 3.55 runs scored/game (27th), 4.38 runs allowed/game (17th)

Blue Jays hitters have the fifth-best walk rate but the seventh-worst batting average. Only six teams have hit fewer home runs and they are dead last in baseball in OPS with runners in scoring position, hitting .198/.300/.275 in those situations.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. made a big error in the series against the Royals in Kansas City, and he has also struggled with the bat, going homerless in his last 16 games. Bo Bichette is mired in a 1-for-18 slump in the last week. Justin Turner has hit well overall, but is hitting just .222/.300/.259 over his last nine games. The Blue Jays are 16-of-19 in stolen base attempts, but are fifth-worst in Baserunning Runs. Toronto has terrific defense, but it took a hit with the loss of Kevin Kiermaier, who is out after injuring himself in Kansas City last week.

Jonathan Bowlan will make his season debut for the Royals on Monday, and will face a fellow 27-year-old rookie in Yariel Rodríguez. Rodríguez is Cuban-born, but spent the last few seasons in Japan as a reliever. He has yet to go more than four innings in a start, and got just four swing-and-misses against the Royals last week with two strikeouts in four innings, while giving up six hits and three runs. He throws a 95 mph fastball that opponents are hitting .353 against, with a slider and splitter.

José Berríos is off to a great start, but has the second-biggest gap between his ERA and FIP in baseball. His strikeout rate is down but his groundball rate is up this year. Berríos snapped a three-start streak of scoreless outings last week against the Royals, but they managed just three hits and two runs in a 2-1 win. His slurve has been most impressive with opponents hitting just .136 against it with a 32.9 percent whiff rate.

Chris Bassitt couldn’t get out of the third inning in his last outing against the Dodgers, giving up seven runs. He has one of the worst strikeout-to-walk ratios among starters so far. His sinker has been hammered, with opponents hitting .393 against it, but he has a pretty deep arsenal with a cutter, curve, sweeper, slider, change up, and splitter.

The Blue Jays bullpen has a 4.75 ERA, and a 5.12 FIP, third-worst in baseball. They have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate, eleventh-highest walk rate, and the highest home run rate in baseball. All-Star closer Jordan Roman is 4-for-4 in save opportunities so far after going 36-for-40 last year. Opposing hitters are batting just .091/.149/.205 against Yimi Garcia this year. Lefty reliever Tim Mayza has allowed lefties to go just 2-for-15 against him, but with five walks and a home run.

The Blue Jays were expected to be contenders this year, and while their record isn’t bad, they aren’t clicking on all cylinders right now. The Royals have already shown they can handle this team, but they haven’t played as well on the road so far, with a 5-7 record away from Kansas City.