NFL Writer Dampens Patriots Hype With Pessimistic 2025 Prediction
The New England Patriots are gaining buzz as a trendy sleeper team, but not everyone is on board.
Many onlookers expect the Patriots to improve drastically from a 4-13 season. They’re even drawing some traction as a candidate to jump from worst to first place in the AFC East under head coach Mike Vrabel.
Las Vegas may not project the Pats as Super Bowl contenders, but an 8.5 win total indicates elevated expectations in 2025. The Athletic’s Vic Tafur warned everyone to slow down the hype train when picking the Patriots to finish under that win total among his best NFL bets.
“We like Mike Vrabel fine, but to hear people talk this offseason, the new Patriots coach is a combination of Vince Lombardi and Bill Belichick,” Tafur wrote. “New England is coming off back-to-back four-win seasons and was not favored in a single game last season. The Patriots had a point differential of -128. Now, thanks to Vrabel and an aggressive offseason, the Patriots are picked to more than double their win total.”
Tafur said fans should “stop blowing up the Hall of Fame balloons” for Vrabel, who took the Tennessee Titans to three straight postseasons before going 13-21 in his last two seasons.
The betting markets had no faith in the Patriots last season, but they’re favored in 11 of this season’s games due to a favorable schedule. Eight of those matchups are against teams with five wins or fewer in 2024, so modest progression could help them approach a .500 record.
Most optimism stems from hope that Drake Maye will take a massive leap in his second season. New England also reloaded its defense by adding four probable starters (Calton Davis III, Milton Williams, Harold Landry III and Robert Spillane), but those offseason acquisitions didn’t impress Tafur.
“Quarterback Drake Maye and the young secondary of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III are fine,” Tafur said, “but overpaying new defensive players and bringing in Diggs and Shoeless Mack Hollins doesn’t add up to nine wins.”