College football Week 12 picks: Notre Dame meets Virginia en route to potential playoff berth

Eight might not be all that great for College Football Playoff hopeful Notre Dame.

A ranking of seventh or sixth would allow the Irish to breathe easier.

There almost certainly will be a gleeful rendition of the school’s alma mater belted out on the field Saturday after Virginia (+23) at No. 8 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC 5, 780-AM). The Fighting Irish’ last two regular-season games, against Army and USC, look promising, too. Can’t the Irish be certain that if they make it to 11-1, they’ll get to host a first-round playoff game?

“Proudly in the heavens gleams thy Gold and Blue,” but the answer is no, not entirely.

It might end up being impossible for the Irish (8-1) to move up in the rankings. It’s not outside the realm of reason that the playoff committee could bump them down a spot after the conference championship games have been played. Remember how the playoff works: The champs of the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC will automatically be locked into top-four spots, with first-round byes, while teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 in on-campus games.

At this point, I’d bet against an 11-1 Irish team being ranked any lower than eighth. But the Big Ten and the SEC together rule the modern world of this multibillion-dollar industry. Notre Dame isn’t the power broker it used to be.

Barring any major upsets the rest of the way, the Big Ten — which currently has four teams ranked in the top five — would end up with at least two non-champions ranked ahead of the 11-1 Irish. It would be surprising if the SEC didn’t have a non-champ ahead of them, too. That adds up to the Irish at 8 in perhaps the best-case scenario.

And though it doesn’t matter — because Notre Dame’s shocking September loss to Northern Illinois still echoes — it’s wild to remember that even a 12-0 Irish team would’ve been frozen out of the top four. The rules are the rules. Irish independence comes at a price.

But I’ve gone on an awfully long time about the Irish’s playoff prospects, which will disappear in the blink of an eye if they take a second loss. There’s essentially no scenario in which they get in at 10-2, bringing utmost importance to this game against 5-4 UVA.

“Every week is the Super Bowl,” coach Marcus Freeman said.

The Cavaliers are about as close to being a Super Bowl team as the Bears are. Their defense is one of the ACC’s worst. They don’t have a 500-yard rusher, and one of the leakiest offensive lines in the country has given up 31 sacks. Lots of luck to quarterback Anthony Colandrea, who will be running for his life before he comes out of the tunnel. The Irish defense should feast, and QB Riley Leonard should get what he wants in the run game and find downfield shots readily available.

Style points might not come into play until the USC game, but romping never goes out of style. Irish, 38-10.

WEEK 12 PICKS

All games are Saturday.

No. 2 Ohio State (-28½) at Northwestern (11 a.m., BTN, 720-AM): Other schools plan their Homecoming weekends around games they expect to win. Northwestern (4-5) planned its Homecoming around what looks like an utterly unwinnable game against the Buckeyes (8-1) — at Wrigley Field, no less. Sometimes you just have to tip your ball cap when unironic Northwestern-ness is in full effect.

“There’s no one out there that expects Northwestern to go in and beat Ohio State or even, for that matter, compete,” coach David Braun said. “But this group believes [we] can make this a four-quarter battle, make it close in the fourth quarter and look up with zeros on the clock — and the expectation is to expect victory.”

Expect the Wildcats to put up a baseball score. Buckeyes, 34-3.

Michigan State (+2½) at Illinois (1:30 p.m., FS1, 890-AM): There are a couple of edges the Illini (6-3) have against MSU (4-5) that could make the difference. One, they’re a lot better at avoiding costly penalties. And there’s the turnover gap; the Illini are plus-4 (fifth in the Big Ten), the Spartans minus-9 (18th). MSU’s Aidan Chiles has eight touchdown passes and 11 interceptions — the worst ratio in the Big Ten — and Illinois’ Luke Altmyer 16 TDs and three INTs, the best ratio in the Big Ten. Is this enough to go on, though? Illini, 27-20.

No. 1 Oregon (-13½) at Wisconsin (6:30 p.m., NBC 5): The scene will be electric, at least until the Ducks start pouring it on. That’s “if” they start pouring it on. No, come to think of it, it’s “when.” No matter how amped up the Badgers are for a night game against No. 1, they just don’t have the talent or the speed to hang in there all the way through. Ducks, 41-17.

My favorite favorite: No. 6 BYU (-2½) vs. Kansas (9:15 p.m., ESPN): Is unbeaten BYU living on borrowed time? Is Kansas better — much better — than its 3-6 record in light of back-to-back impressive outings coming into this one? Is there actually a world in which a 9-0 team is favored at home by less than a field goal against an opponent that lost to Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia, TCU, Arizona State and Kansas State? Give me the Cougs.

My favorite underdog: No. 7 Tennessee (+10) at No. 12 Georgia (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Banged-up QB Nico Iamaleava has to play — and well — for the Vols to have a chance. The two-loss Bulldogs have to wake up and play like they didn’t at Ole Miss or else they’re going to find themselves on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, with no way to get back in. What a development that would be. Georgia barely, 19-16.