Does it have to be a Khrush?

I was looking at the stats, and Khris Davis's (our left fielder) batting average has dipped finally below the healthy .280-.300 mark this season to .268. Its been in the .240s the past 3 seasons, (2014-2016) in an average of 482 at bats. Thats an average of 118 hits per season.

Using MLB's Statistics, Hitting, and Last 7 tabs, (http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=oak#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type=%27R%27&season=2017&season_type=ANY&league_code=%27MLB%27&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1493660617443&timeframe=d7&split=&last_x_days=7)

Khris's last 19 at bats have produced a .211 batting average (4 hits) and a slugging of .684.

Given his 82 total at bats this season (today, 5/1/17), 82-19=63 at bats before this slump. His 22 total hits this season equate to 18 total hits before his 'Last 7' slump. Thats a change from 18/63 7 days ago to 22/82 today. A .285 average to a .268 average. Yet his season slugging percentage is .652, while in the last 7 his overall slugging has been higher, . 684.

Whats revealed today is a tipping point at which his average is starting to get too low for his slugging percentage to stay at an all star/HOF level. The basic question that arises is what variable has changed? Has Khris gotten out of shape in a way that specifically affects average but not slugging? Have pitchers started to pitch him differently? Its probably a combination of the two. His dexterity affects his contact rate, while more breaking pitches likely lower his average while leaving slugging the same (my experience not actual scouting).

Running and Kenpo Karate affect dexterity, while modified scouting reports based on footage from the beginning of the season likely affect which pitches he is seeing and his average. I'd be very curious about what type of pitching lowers his average while leaving his slugging the same.

I've been working on running outdoors every day, and doing so seems like a potential solution to low contact rates. Its a grueling effort that would challenge any athlete. Actually running hard attracts dogs and weird crazy stalking attention, and maintaining energy levels is hard if the runner lets dogs get into his/her space, plus if you are famous, its hard to learn that the crazy stalking is caused by fast movement, and not by people recognizing you. To run outdoors every day without getting worn out it is necessary in the end to be able to use the police non-emergency number on dogs, or to only use city streets with no repetitive path. Running boosts dexterity which then affects contact rate I think.

Its potentially easier for a black person to learn to run outdoors because the color of a black person's skin will have already attracted lots of crazy stalking and if they survive, they will have perceptual filters already in place that differentiate instinctive stalking (based on skin color) from the much more rare stalking that originates from the stalker actually knowing who you are. That is similar to the perceptual filters that differentiate stalkers who know who the ball player is from regular insane stalking. Although of course surviving that hardship while black will have lowered the rate that minorities will be running in the society outdoors. Again, the harder a person runs, the more dogs get attracted, and the more people stop to watch. This is relevant to global warming and reduced dependence on cars.

Anyways, to get back to the original point hopefully without having offended anybody, KHris Davis has played an average of 482 at bats the past 3 seasons, and so this is a season in which he can define himself as a 600 ab player or a part time all star etc. I'm guessing Kris working on his dexterity is probably going to affect his ability to get more at bats (health), and his average.

In my experience, doing each 3 main Wing Chun forms once Left hand dominant, and once Right hand dominant creates a good platform for creative curls. Doing Wing Chun and then curls (3x10 at 10lb increments up to 50-80lbs at the major league level) creates a good platform to then do Kenpo Karate colored belts with a pushup set after each of the 8 belts (orange to black). Memorizing Kenpo takes a while, but it should be possible to do that, Wing Chun, Curls, Kenpo and Pushups combo in under 40 minutes, and that does warm up the body for running outdoors well, through the craziness with a much higher durability.

Running outdoors every day is really important for being able to maintain a dynamic nervous system with habituation to what its like outdoors for normal people compared to what its like outdoors for famous people. Its crazy and dangerous to be running outdoors whether you are famous or not because people get freaked out if you are actually fast. Thats why its a little better to use city streets so you can vary patterns.

The overall quest for health and durability is probably strongly connected to ability to run outdoors every day. Its a big skill set that is also very relevant to car culture's role in a global warming environment.

In 2010, Khris had 555 ABs at Single A. In 2011 he had 507 ABs between A+ and Double AA. In his development, Khris doesn't get stretched out at AA. In 2011 he logs 136 abs at AA, and in 2012 his logs 154 ABs in AA before getting promoted to AAA for 294 total ABs.

His overall health and endurance skill doesn't get developed up to a major league level in AA or AAA. In 2013 he doesn't hit AAA pitching very well, but gets promoted, and does hit major league pitching, but he looks like hes spending energy unsustainably, and his major league 2014 season is bad. He's not ready. Thats a mis managed prospect. Its not a sophomore slump.

But there is hope. He really just needed to learn to run outside in the commons every day probably (my experience). I remember Sandy Alderson saying something about how Barry Zito was developed with the minimum of minor league experience that is appropriate for a player, but I know I'll never find that quote.

Jed Lowrie went from 438 ABs at A+ in 2006 to 585 ABs between AA and AAA in 2007. Thats a stretched out durable Major Leaguer who didn't have to strain in the majors while still developing. He got 234 ABs at AAA. Thats not enough given his durability, buts its better than what the minorities we have on staff got. Yonder Alonso did 322 ABs between A+ and AA in 2009, and 566 ABs between AA and AAA in 2010. Thats stretched out, kind of, before being promoted. Rosales and Healy are bit players without major league track records. The A's big 3 offensive players have a racially derogatory tone. Davis looks mismanaged, while the two whiter players look decently taken care of. One is under the bar, and two are over. That is separate from Lowrie's ability to stay on the field with habitual injuries.

When this principle of letting player's endurance expand naturally before the major league level is then applied to the A's pitchers, there is again a discrepancy of race.

In 2012, Cotton got 15 IP mostly in relief. In 2013, he got 73 IP, mostly starting at Single A. He was left at Single A in 2014 for 126 IP. In 2015 he got 94 IP at A, AA, & AAA. In 2016, he is stretched out to his previous inning high with 135 IP at AA, but before his durability can develop without stress, as it should at AA, he is promoted to the majors for 5 starts past his previous high at the major league level. That is mismanagement. Its not friendly. He is not stretched out at AA to increase his inning total, and now has a predictable restraining bolt at 125 IP. Congratulate him if he makes it past 125 this year without injury.

I watched Yoenis Cespedes burn out his perfect arm in left field being warmed up by a white man with a jeer.

Sean Manaea pitched 121 innings in 2014 at Single A. Thats high for a first season. But then he pitched only 73 innings in 2015 between Rookie League and AA, with 49 IP at AA. Then promoting him to the major league level without letting his endurance and health adapt to a AA innings load, to AAA, or to a major league inning level is B list decision making. Manaea's comfortable experience range was 121 innings at Single A. After that he was walking on air, it wasn't repeatable. The experience he gained in 2015 was 42 IP at AA. Thats worth something, but its not durable at the major league level. Developing people at the major league level isn't good for them. We are selling these guys souls on TV to satiate racists and its hard to watch with a positive attitude.

Graveman is white. He pitched 39 innings at Single A in 2013, and then 170 innings between A ball and the majors in 2014. That is stretched out with developed health and endurance skills. Graveman was not overly used at the major league level once at the edge of his experience. He only pitched 4 innings at the majors in 2014. Thats not mismanaged, but its barely not mismanaged, sort of like Barry Zito. Its a different standard for the bare minimum for a white person. Its not a habitually abusive restraining bolt in his ability because he reached 170 innings in the minors without being strained past his inning experience in the majors. Zito got 100 innings at AAA and was good for a few years.

Triggs was used in relief in the minors. He logged 42 IP at Single A in 2012, and 60 IP at A+ in 2013. Thats not a lot of room for expansion of his skills. In 2014 he pitched 60 again but at AA. Thats conservative development, but effective. In 2015 he pitched 60 in AA again in relief. Is Triggs not racist? Thats now probably mismanaged because he doesn't have room to expand his health or endurance. In 2016 the A's pitched him 18 innings at AAA, and 56 in the majors, expanding his durability in the spotlight to 74 IP. That might not be mismanaged given the repetition at AA. His innings cap is probably actually the 5 starts at the major league level he has now because he didn't start in the minors. It would have been better to stretch him out as a starter for 100+ innings at AAA, and to let his IP per year increase by 20 IP.

Ryon Healy has 600 ABs in 2014 at Single A. Thats high for Single A and probably wore him out. He then gets 543 at AA in 2015. This doesn't expand his durability at AA and is a warning sign, but not a big one. Khris Davis didn't get a lot of ABs at AA, and also didn't surpass his pervious AB high, while Healy did get a lot of ABs in AA but didn't surpass his Single A high. I think it is a warning sign if a player does get a lot of ABs in Single A, and can't work past that in AA because of how the system works.

Healy did get a lot of ABs at AA, while not improving durability. In 2016 when he got hot at AA over 164 ABs he was promoted to AAA for 210 ABs where he was not as good. He was then promoted to the majors with 374 at bats done. His previous high was 600 in 2014. This left him with 226 at bats before he reached the edge of his endurance, but that durability and health experience was at Single A, and only re-enforced at AA and not developed. He was given 283 at bats, pushing him 57 past his previous experience total in the exposure of the major leagues. That is stretched out at the major league level with a bad foundation. He is mismanaged technically, but I'd have done a similar thing 5 yeas ago with a highly touted prospect, but not someone with bad defense. Its not a sophomore slump, he needed fewer at bats at Single A, more at AA, and because he was not very athletic, extra time at AAA compared to most.

Sonny Grey pitched 148 innings at AA in 2012. That is stretched out at AA out of the limelight. He then pitched 118 innings at AAA, and 64 in the majors in 2013. That was a total of 182 IP, for 34 past his previous high while at the major league level. Not bad management for what was then a Billy Bean staff, but about as hard on Sonny as the A's were on Barry Zito. When he was then at 219 IP in 2014 it was a 37 IP increase. I think you are supposed to do 20 IP increases on young pitchers when they are in the majors and Sonny Grey is evidence of that.

The stats websites say Barry Zito was drafted in 1999, and pitched 40 innings at single A and 22 innings at AA that year. Then in 2000 he pitched 101 innings at AAA, and 92 at the major league level. So he was basically stretched out to 100 innings without pressure, and then had to double that at the major league level. Thats a Sandy Alderson system probably. Barry ended up with a 4.04 career ERA. He burned out his arm and Sonny Grey looks like that right now or worse.

When Cotton got 135 IP at AA, thats not near-MLB AAA experience. Its AA experience with a sharp acclimation phase to the MLB level. Zito doesn't have a sharp jump to the majors. He was used in AAA.Cotton looks much more badly managed than Zito.

I think the basic durability skill these mismanaged players are missing is the ability to run outside in the streets and parks every day safely year round. Rickey Henderson can teach that. I think its Wing Chun, curls, Kenpo colored belts, and pushups in the PM and again first thing when waking up. With a perspective, an A's fan,

MCP