One Data Point for Each Pitcher This Spring

Pretty much every pitcher tries something new in spring training. For many, it is new pitches and new pitch shapes. You can view MMO’s breakdown of some of the Mets pitchers trying out new pitches here. Pitchers also try to do things like attack the zone more, generate more ground balls, get more extensions, etc. Here are some potential trend lines to watch for the 2026 season.

Freddy Peralta – Zone Rate

Freddy Peralta has often been labeled as a “five and dive” pitcher and while it is not completely accurate, he is not known for going deep into games. A big reason for that is that he tends to run high counts and walk rates. Peralta has been in the bottom third of BB% most years of his career, and in 2025 he posted a 9.1% walk rate, which ranked in the 30th percentile. The reason behind these long at-bats and high walk rates is that Peralta hasn’t attacked the zone. In 2025, he ran a 44.8% zone rate.

New Mets pitching coach Justin Willard has discussed that he wants pitchers to attack the zone, and in spring, Peralta attacked the zone 50% of the time. This led to a 5.7% walk rate. We will see if this continues into the regular season and if that helps him go deeper into games.

Nolan McLean – Swinging Strike Rate

Nolan McLean ran a 30.3% strikeout rate in the majors in 2025, and that has been a category many analysts have projected to drop significantly, with estimates putting him at a 22-23% strikeout rate. Why the huge drop? McLean only had a 12% swinging strike rate, which was in the 49th percentile. This put him in line with Shota Imanaga (20.6% K rate), Gavin Williams (25.3% K rate) and Ryan Pepiot (24.6% K rate). On the high end is Bryan Woo (27.5% K rate) Sonny Gray (26.7% K rate). That is a wide range of strikeout rates, all well below where McLean was in 2025.

This spring, his 12.6% swinging strike rate is largely the same as in 2025. But one thing McLean does significantly better than all these players is getting called strikes. For a pitcher with 40 innings or more, McLean placed 10th across all pitchers in called strikes. A full season in 2026 will be the test as to whether McLean can stay an elite strikeout artist without a high swinging strike rate.

David Peterson – Zone Rate

Similar to Peralta, David Peterson has typically thrown his pitches out of the zone more than he has attacked the zone. In 2025, he ran a 49.4% zone rate, and in 2024, it was 47.2%. Across spring training, Peterson threw his pitches in the zone 51.8% of the time, led by his sinker, which he threw 66.2% of the time (up from 58.9% in 2025). This helped him generate a 72.3% ground ball rate, almost 20% better than in 2025. Against just major league hitters that will drop, but this is still a good sign.

Throwing in the zone more also has not hurt his whiff rate, as it jumped from 24% to 29%, though part of that was likely the quality of his opponents. None of these are bad signs for 2026, though, and attacking the zone could help Peterson take the next step as he looks to make 30 starts for only the second time in his career.

Kodai Senga – Fastball Velocity

This has been the talk of all spring – Kodai Senga hit 98.9 miles per hour on his fastball. In 2025, his only hit was 98 miles per hour, once, at 98.3. This spring he has done it four times. In 2025, he averaged 94.7 miles per hour on his fastball. In this year’s spring training, he averaged 96.1 miles per hour. Senga’s fastball velocity does not just improve his fastball, though; it elevates his entire arsenal. The larger velocity gap, in particular, makes his forkball even more devastating, as both pitches move arm-side from the same release point. This tunneling effect makes it difficult to pick up the pitch out of his hand and the larger velocity gap makes it even more difficult to adjust to the pitch if the hitter guesses incorrectly.

Clay Holmes – Walk Rate

Clay Holmes has made it clear he wants to go deeper into games, and cutting down walks is a great way to do that. In 2025, he posted a 9.3% walk rate (16th percentile), but in spring, he walked only 5.3% of batters (75th percentile). You may be noticing a trend here – a big change he made was to attack the zone more. Specifically, he threw his sinker in the zone almost 7% more than he did in 2025, utilizing it to get weak contact on the ground and generate quick outs. The Mets have improved their middle infield defense, which should help a ground ball pitcher like Clay. In 2025, his 55.9% ground-ball rate ranked in the 95th percentile, and that has carried over into spring training.

Sean Manaea – Fastball Velocity

Similar to Senga, Sean Manaea‘s fastball velocity has been a topic this offseason. Unfortunately, it has been a topic because he has averaged 88.6 miles per hour in spring after averaging 91.7 miles per hour in 2025. In the live games, he maxed out at 90.4 miles per hour, his only pitch over 90 miles per hour, though in the Mets simulated game on March 23, SNY Mets reported that Manaea touched 92 miles per hour per the radar gun, so it is possible the velocity is ticking back up.

Can Manaea be successful if his fastball averages less than 90 miles per hour? Martin Pérez, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, and Trevor Williams have had some success as starters, but not sustained success and those probably aren’t the names you want to be lumped in with. When you jump to 90-91 miles per hour, you get Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray, Merrill Kelly, Chris Bassitt, and Shota Imanaga. Two lefty relievers have had success with low velocity fastballs – Brent Suter and Hoby Milner -but Manaea isn’t going to be a typical reliever in the bullpen. At this moment, he is expected to be used in a piggyback role, building up until the Mets need a sixth starter in a few weeks.

Tobias Myers – Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate

Tobias Myers did not generate many swings and misses in 2025. Only a 21.4% whiff rate, 17.3% strikeout rate, and 10.9% swinging strike rate. His called strike plus whiff rate was 26%, which was in the 13th percentile. This spring, Myers has tinkered with new pitches and pitch shapes, elevating his “stuff” to generate significantly more swing and miss. His 30.4% strikeout rate this spring is in the 87th percentile and is aided by his 31.9% called strike plus whiff rate.

Similarly to McLean, he does not get a ton of swinging strikes at 12.4%, so you should expect a strikeout regression from spring training. His ability to generate called strikes by attacking the shadow of the zone should help him strike out more batters than he did in 2025. For Myers, a 23% strikeout rate would bring him above even where he was in 2024.

Devin Williams – Glove Side Movement

In 2025, Devin Williams did not throw a single pitch that broke glove side. Every pitch he threw moved arm-side except his cutter, which he threw twice with zero inches of horizontal break. Similar to Senga and his forkball, Williams relied on tunneling his changeup and fastball, which he throws roughly ten miles per hour apart. This was not much different than what he did in 2024 when he had a 1.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. But in 2025, hitters seemed to realize they could sit on one side of the zone and only had to adjust to velocity. He did still generate a 37.7% whiff rate because his pitches are so elite, but introducing glove-side pitches adds a new dimension to William’s game.

In spring, Williams threw 23 of his 92 pitches glove side (25%). His cutter averaged -4.1 inches of horizontal break and his slider averaged -6.5 inches of horizontal break. Now, hitters won’t be able to sit arm side, and he has two different pitch groups he can tunnel.

Luke Weaver – Barrel Rate

In 2025, Luke Weaver had a bit of a home run problem. In 64.2 innings of work, he allowed 10 home runs. Part of that could be fixed by pitching half of his games in Citi Field, but his biggest issue was giving up hard contact in the air. Batters ran an 8.3% barrel rate against him in 2025. Incorporated in that issue was the 89.7 miles per hour exit velocity batters averaged off him and his 1st percentile 27.4% ground ball rate.

In spring, Weaver generated slightly more ground balls at 30% with a better exit velocity of 86.1%, but most of all across 91 pitches and 10 batted ball events, he did not allow a single barrel. Continuing to generate weaker contact in addition to pitching in Citi Field should help limit the number of home runs he gives up.

Luis García – Velocity

Luis García lives and dies on his velocity. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 96.9, 96.4, and 97.2 miles per hour. In spring, García averaged 94.8 miles per hour on his sinker and topped out at 96.5 miles per hour. This is not ringing the panic bell yet. He is a 13-year veteran who had a secured spot in the bullpen and may not have been throwing max effort. Last spring training, he also sat at 94.8 miles per hour, and he topped out at 100.7 miles per hour in the regular season. But it is something to monitor in his age 39 season.

One other thing of note is that in 2025, he began the season averaging 95-96 miles per hour on his sinker, topping out at 97.8 in April, but by July, he was averaging 98.3 miles per hour. If García comes out regularly throwing 96 miles per hour in April, his velocity should be much less of a concern. If he is throwing 94-95, it could be a concern.

Brooks Raley – Barrel Rate

Brooks Raley, through 25.2 innings in 2025, facing 99 batters, did not allow a single barrel. No other pitcher in baseball last year had at least 60 batted ball events with zero barrels. So far in spring training Raley has continued that trend and in his four spring training games did not let up a single barrel. He likely will allow a barrel at some point in 2026 – his last full season in 2024, he had seven barrels, good for a 4.9% barrel rate (90th percentile). Preventing hard contact in the air is Raley’s entire game and the early returns in spring show no signs of slowing down. His pitch metrics look similar and if he continues to avoid barrels he should continue to have success.

Huascar Brazobán – Vertical Attack Angle

Huascar Brazobán‘s dominance in the World Baseball Classic was chronicled here by MMO, but I want to dive a little deeper into why raising his arm angle and arm slot have potentially helped Brazobán take a step forward. You may remember how Sean Manaea lowered his arm slot in 2024 to increase his stuff. Why does raising his arm angle help Brazobán? Manaea lowered his arm slot to get more horizontal movement across his pitches through his crossfire pitching style. Raising his arm slot has helped improve aspects of Brazobán’s vertical attack angle (VAA) specifically with his sinker. VAA is the angle at which a pitch approaches home plate vertically.

Per Fangraphs, the steeper the sinker, the wider the margin of error. Brazobán’s -6.2 VAA in spring training is a 5% increase over where he was in 2025 (-5.9), and as a sinker-heavy pitcher, this is a big benefit. While Brazobán’s VAA is not in the elite category, improving it should lead to better results.

The post One Data Point for Each Pitcher This Spring appeared first on Metsmerized Online.