Final Phillies offseason thoughts as camp opens

CLEARWATER, Fla. — As spring training nears, let’s wrap up the Phillies’ offseason.

The club accomplished its two main goals heading into the winter in re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. There is more to the story than that, as the Phillies contemplated a pivot to Bo Bichette that would have led to significant roster changes. The Phillies nearly landed Bichette, only for the New York Mets to place the winning bid at the last minute.

The biggest changes are in the bullpen. Matt Strahm was traded to the Kansas City Royals for right-handed pitcher Jonathan Bowlan. Left-hander Kyle Backhus was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The big addition, right-hander Brad Keller, was signed to a two-year deal.

Adolís Garcia was signed to a one-year, $10 million deal to replace the Nick Castellanos/Max Kepler platoon in right field the Phillies ran with at the end of last year. The Phillies have all but penciled in prospect Justin Crawford as the starting center fielder, replacing Harrison Bader. Brandon Marsh will start in left field against right-handed starting pitchers. Otto Kemp or Dylan Moore, a non-roster invitee, could platoon with him. The infield is pretty much the same.

The biggest question marks are in the rotation. Zack Wheeler’s status, Andrew Painter’s readiness for the majors, Aaron Nola bouncing back after a lost season and how the Phillies move on without Ranger Suárez will be storylines worth following. Jesús Luzardo, their Game 2 starter in last year’s postseason, is also entering a walk year.

Here are a few final thoughts on the offseason. The first official workout for pitchers and catchers is Wednesday, Feb. 11.

Are the Phillies better? Probably not

Rob Thomson slipped in some unbridled optimism when he was asked about “running it back” for the millionth time this offseason on Monday. “I’m more excited about it this year than I was last year,” he said. “I think we’re better this year on this day this year than we were on the same day a year ago.” 

With Jhoan Duran as the closer and more depth behind him, they are significantly better in the bullpen. An outfield of Marsh, Crawford and García might be better than Kepler, Marsh and Castellanos, but even that is up for debate. But the Phillies entered camp last year in a much better spot with their rotation. Wheeler was coming off another second place Cy Young finish, not thoracic outlet surgery. The Phillies have another Cy Young runner-up in Cristopher Sánchez, but an ace version of Sanchez isn’t enough to make up for other shortcomings in the rotation. They lost Suárez and have not backfilled his spot. Painter doesn’t have the same prospect shine post- Tommy John surgery, though a good spring and an even better start to his season could get him back on track. All of this looks a lot better if Wheeler is back to being Wheeler at some point this year.

To me, it’s not “running it back” if you’re worse. While there are clear improvements in some areas of the roster, there are weaknesses in others.

What kind of pitcher will Zack Wheeler be after surgery?

Wheeler will likely speak with the media this week for the first time since his last start in August. We’ll learn more about his rehab and his expectations for this season. The Phillies have already ruled out Wheeler being ready for Opening Day, but it’s unlikely he’ll miss much time after that. 

The bigger question is what kind of pitcher is Wheeler following surgery. Since his first Cy Young runner-up season in 2021, the Phillies have been able to reasonably project Wheeler as a top-of-the-rotation arm. That won’t be the case this year. If anything, the Phillies have to be prepared for Wheeler’s best days being behind him. Anything more than that would be a spectacular development. 

They like the way his rehab has gone so far, but they won’t really know until he gets back on the mound. And even then, there should be a grace period for him to work around some rust. What really matters is what he looks like in October. 

Aidan Miller could be exactly what the Phillies need

The last successful era of Phillies baseball from the late 2000s to early 2010s was built around the homegrown position player stars (Utley, Howard and Rollins). The big trade and free agent signings (Halladay and Lee) came later. This era of competitive Phillies baseball is seemingly trying to do things in reverse order, with the big free agents (Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, Turner and Wheeler) coming first, then the wave of young talent. 

Most of the big free agents will still be around for years to come, but the word the Phillies are using now is “infusion” when it comes to youth. Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter will likely get the first chance to make an impression. 

But some experts have 21-year-old Aidan Miller as a top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball. A big second half at the plate and his improvement as a defender at shortstop are just some of the reasons why he is highly regarded around the industry.

He might not be that guy this year, or maybe next year, but Miller could eventually be the right-handed hitting homegrown star the organization has been craving for years. That alone should get you to tune in to Grapefruit League games over the next few weeks.

What do the Phillies have to gain by dragging out Nick Castellanos’ eventual departure?

The Nick Castellanos situation is all about saving a couple million dollars. The Phillies have long been committed to finding a “change of scenery” for the disgruntled right fielder. It has taken longer than expected because Castellanos is coming off of a bad year and the team is operating with no leverage after completely ruling out even the remote possibility of him coming back. For the Phillies, the chance to save some money, even if it turns out to be just a few hundred thousand dollars, is worth any fan backlash they receive on the process being perceived as disrespectful to Castellanos. 

If another team wants to take a chance on Castellanos, they could jump the line by offering to cover a small portion of the remaining $20 million on his contract. If the Phillies cannot find a trade partner, Castellanos will be released and the Phillies will be on the hook for all of the remaining money on the contract, minus the league minimum salary his future team will be paying him. This should all come together within the next week as the last remaining free agents agree to deals and position players begin showing up to spring training.