NL Wild Card Update: Mets Holding On

Suffice to say, things have not been going well for the New York Mets as of late. On a seven-game losing streak, they’re also losers of 11 of their last 12 games. They suffered three excruciating losses to the Brewers and were swept by the surging Cleveland Guardians.

At one point, the Mets were the first team in the National League to 40 wins, and on June 9, held the best record in the NL at 42-24. Since then, the Mets are 21-31, sporting a 63-55 record entering Monday. The Phillies hold a 5.5-game lead for the top seed in the NL East. However, the Mets still maintain a hold on the final NL Wild Card spot … but not by much.

As of Monday, the Chicago Cubs hold a 4.5-game lead for the top Wild Card seed. The Padres have a three-game lead for the second seed, and the Mets hold a 1.5-game lead for the final Wild Card seed. Trailing the Mets and gunning for the final spot in the playoff race are the Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants.

The Arizona Diamondbacks were sellers at the deadline and stand at six games back in the Wild Card race, tied with the red-hot Miami Marlins. The Braves, Pirates, Nationals and Rockies all follow, and will likely not see the playoffs in 2025.

Let’s take a look to see how the race is shaping up for the other NL Wild Card contenders.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were the shoo-in winners for the NL Central entering the season and for much of the first half of 2025. However, the Brewers, now on a nine-game winning streak, hold a six-game lead for the top seed in the NL Central.

The red-hot Pete Crow-Armstrong has cooled down considerably after starting the season .270/.308/.555 with a .863 OPS with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs. Since the All-Star Break, the former Mets prospect is hitting .227/.263/.440 with a .703 OPS and just two home runs and seven RBIs.

Entering the break, the team was tied first in the NL in home runs (142), runs (508), and first in RBIs (497), batting average (.257), SLG (.450) and fWAR (21.4). However, in the last month, they are 25th worst in baseball in runs, 19th in hits, 15th in home runs, 25th in RBIs, 15th in batting average and 16th in OBP. Simply put, the bats overall have significantly cooled off, with Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch faltering in key spots.

Upcoming Series:

CHC  vs. TOR (Aug 12-14)
vs. PIT (Aug 15-17)
vs. MIL (Aug 18-21) — includes a double-header

San Diego Padres

The Padres have been in the thick of it all season long — they’ve faltered slightly post-All-Star break, where they suffered a six-game losing streak, but remain just two games behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Manny Machado is in the midst of another phenomenal season, hitting .297/.358/.492 with a .850 OPS. He’s slugged 29 home runs and driven in 70, leading the Friars as their offensive juggernaut. Luis Arraez is enjoying another excellent season, although hitting, for him, a poor .295/.331/.403. They haven’t received the same production from Jackson Merrill as in his rookie year, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has faltered at times as well.

The Padres’ pitching took a hit with Michael King landing on the 60-day IL after battling an issue with his thoracic nerve, but he was activated this past weekend. Nick Pivetta has been stellar for the Padres in his place, while the rest of the rotation has been solid. However, it’s the Padres’ bullpen that has kept the team afloat. Sporting one of the best ‘pens in the game, they are tied for first for wins (38), are first in saves (39), ERA (3.04), FIP (3.47) and fWAR (6.3).

President of baseball operations AJ Preller went off again at the Trade Deadline, acquiring star closer Mason Miller from the Athletics, along with OF Ramón Laureano and DH Ryan O’Hearn from the Orioles to bolster the roster.

Their upcoming four series are all in division against the Dodgers and Giants, two playoff contenders. The outcomes of those will dictate the NL West leaderboard as well as the NL Wild Card standings.

Upcoming Series:

SD vs. SF (Aug 11-13)
vs. LAD (Aug 15-17)
vs. SF (Aug 18-21)
vs. LAD (Aug 22-24)

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds might be the Wild Card surprise of 2025. Expected to leap to the playoffs in 2024, the team finally looks to be living up to the hype in 2025. Thanks in part to the young hitting core of Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl and Gavin Lux, the team has kicked into gear. However, it’s been the Reds’ pitching that’s been most impressive. Andrew Abbott, a first-time All-Star, is generating Cy Young buzz for his 2.34 ERA and 8-2 record. Paired with Hunter Greene (who will soon be activated from the IL), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Nick Martinez and rookie Chase Burns, everything is heading in the right direction for the Reds.

The team, which struggled to hover over the .500 mark for much of the season, has finally broken out. Sitting at 62-57, they’ve leapfrogged the Cardinals in the NL Central standings and are 5-5 in their last 10. Since the All-Star break, the pitching staff is first in baseball in fWAR (4.2), HR/9 (0.79), fifth in quality starts (10), sixth in strikeouts (200) and ninth in ERA (3.73).

Lurking for the final spot in the Wild Card race, they can jump if the Mets continue to skid.

Upcoming Series:

CIN vs. PHI (Aug. 11-13)
vs. MIL (Aug 15-17)

St. Louis Cardinals

It’s been a mixed bag for the St. Louis Cardinals over the past few years. 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, nobody expected the team to get here. They’re 25th in home runs, 16th in RBIs, 21st in stolen bases, 14th in batting average and 22nd in SLG. All in all, they’ve been an average team at best in 2025. Not to knock the Cardinals, but it says more about the state of the rest of the teams in the National League for how the Cardinals managed to play their way into contention.

The Diamondbacks and Braves, two teams many expected to contend in 2025, have performed well below expectations. The Rockies, Nationals and Pirates continue to rebuild. And the Marlins are fighting their way into a spot, but it is likely too late too soon for the Fish (never say never, though!).

Utility player Brendan Donovan had one of the best first-half performances of 2025, hitting .297/.367/.430 with a .797 OPS. However, he hasn’t been able to keep up the same type of production in the second half, slashing just .192/.259/.260 with a .519 OPS. It’s quite a drop-off for the Cardinals’ offense, which has been powered by Alec Burelson, William Contreras and Masyn Winn.

Nolan Arenado looks like a shadow of his former self, and the starting pitching has left much to be desired. The rotation, which has been a weak point for years for the Cardinals, has the 25th worst ERA in baseball (4.61), allowed the fourth-most earned runs (324) and struck out the 28th fewest batters (484).

The Cardinals also have the 14th hardest schedule remaining (post All-Star break), so their fate does lie in their own hands.

Upcoming Series:

STL vs. COL (Aug 11-13)
STL vs. NYY (Aug 15-17)

San Francisco Giants

Perhaps the most perplexing team on this list, the Giants have had the most ups and downs in 2025 after the Mets. After a battle for top seed in the NL West with the Dodgers to begin the season, they significantly cooled off, experienced winning streaks and extreme losing streaks, but like the Cardinals, have hovered to maintain a spot in the race as the final team.

Buster Posey and company made the first shocking move of the season, acquiring Rafael Devers from the Red Sox, and he never quite took off like the team expected. In Boston until June 15, Devers posted a .272/.401/.504 line with a .905 OPS, 15 home runs and 58 RBIs. Since the trade to San Francisco, Devers has hit .231/.350/.408 with a .758 OPS and just seven home runs and 22 RBIs. Of note, the Giants were 41-31 before the trade on June 15, second in the NL West. After the trade, the Giants went on an 18-28 run, now sit at 59-59 entering Monday, and are now third in the NL West.

They were light sellers at the deadline, parting with bullpen pieces Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers, along with OF Mike Yastrzemski.

Logan Webb continues to be a top pitcher in baseball and for the club, and their rotation, amid injury, has still put together a productive season. They’re tied for the fifth-best ERA (3.92), have the sixth-most strikeouts (620), and have given up the second-fewest home runs (65). However, the lineup continues to struggle to produce, with newly inked shortstop Willy Adames finally coming around (.229/.316/.404 line compared to .251/.331/.462 in 2024). Their lineup has the fifth-worst average at .233 and is 22nd in wRC+ (96), slightly below league average.

Their lineup will be what makes or breaks them, and with a tough few matchups coming up, their fate in the Wild Card race might be resolved sooner rather than later.

Upcoming Series:

SF vs. SD (Aug 11-13)
vs. TB (Aug 15-17)

Check out the full standings and follow the Wild Card race here.

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