Series Preview: Mets to Face Rebounding Orioles Squad

Ebbs and flows, that is the way life goes. And, evidently, it is how baseball works, too.

After an abysmal month of June, the New York Mets proceeded to win four of six games against the Brewers and Yankees. The lineup broke out of its prolonged slump, while the pitching had some positive luck/regression to help the Mets seal the deal.

As a result, the team’s losing ways did not do as much damage as it could have. New York is still very much alive in the NL East race while also holding a lead for the first NL Wild Card slot.

Now, the Mets travel to Baltimore to take on the Orioles. Once one of the worst teams in the league, a deep lineup has helped Baltimore claw back to some form of relevance. The O’s are a hungry team looking to stave off a playoff-less fate and reach the level it was supposed to, a la the Mets of 2024.

It should be a very interesting series to start the second week of July, and we have you covered here at MMO. It is time for another series preview!

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.99 ERA) vs. Brandon Young (0-3, 7.02 ERA)

• Clay Holmes, as has been the case for his past few starts, had an interesting outing against the Milwaukee Brewers last week. Lasting 5.1 innings, Holmes struck out one batter, walked four batters, and allowed three total hits. The pitcher also allowed two earned runs and one home run. Even with his struggles and pitch limits, Holmes is still finding a way to produce. Outside of some scattered home runs and extra-base hits, he is doing well in limiting damage. Both of his fastballs (four-seam and sinker) have run values of three or higher, despite not having a gaudy strikeout rate or overwhelming velocity. He has not been perfect, but Holmes has given New York enough production to be considered a semi-reliable pitcher. 
• On the other side of things is Brandon Young. Young has avoided getting barreled up consistently (7.5%) and has generated ground balls at a rate of 49.1%. However, Young does not have great stuff. He has a low peak fastball velocity and does not have a pitch with a positive run value this season. In short, the Mets could tee off on Young to start off the series. 

Wednesday: David Peterson (0-1, 10.13 ERA)  vs. Tomoyuki Sugano  (6-5, 4.44 ERA)

• In game two, the Mets will send David Peterson to the mound. Finding his footing again last week, Peterson recorded four strikeouts and only allowed one run over 6.2 innings pitched. However, he also allowed four walks in his most recent outing. Heading into the Baltimore series, Peterson needs to rein in his control a bit more. He found a few more swings and misses, dotted some pitches, and induced plenty of soft contact; however, the walk totals were still in line with his blowup starts. To truly have an “ace” performance on Wednesday, Peterson will need to find the control that allowed him to get off to a great start in 2025. 
• As for Baltimore, the O’s will roll out Tomoyuki Sugano in game two. After a solid start to the 2025 season, Sugano has given up six runs or more in his last two starts. He has an impressive split-finger fastball, but his sinker and curveball have been below-average pitches this season. Add in bottom-tier whiff, strikeout, and barrel rates, and the Mets should be in a position to do damage on Wednesday.

Thursday: TBD vs. Charlie Morton (5-7, 5.47 ERA) 

• New York, as of the writing of this article, does not have a scheduled starter to wrap up the end of the series. While it is likely to be a bullpen game, keep an eye on what the Mets decide to do here.
• To close out the series, the Orioles will send out arguably their best pitcher. After his abysmal start to the 2025 season, old friend of the Mets, Charlie Morton, has bounced back nicely. In the month of May, Morton recorded a 3.98 ERA with 19 strikeouts and only five walks. In June, Morton recorded a 2.88 ERA with 32 strikeouts, eight walks, and eight earned runs. While his fastball is not what it used to be, the 41-year-old has found success with his offspeed pitches over the past two months. It will be fascinating to see how Morton attacks the Mets on Thursday, and I truly think that this battle could go either way.

The Main Headline

For this week’s series, my main headline is the Mets’ curious case of Mark Vientos. 

After what looked to be a breakout 2024 season, the third baseman has hit the skids once again this year. In 233 plate appearances, Vientos has a .212 batting average, a .344 slugging percentage, and a .619 OPS. His advanced metrics are in the toilet; Vientos only has a 6.4 Barrel%, a 31.3 Whiff%, and a 24.9 strikeout rate, among others. Additionally, his fielding has been brutal, as the third baseman has a -8 OAA.

With Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio playing leagues better than him, it is fair to wonder what New York’s plan with the right-handed power threat is. It is clear that the team’s confidence is no longer fully in Vientos; in a key at-bat on Sunday, manager Carlos Mendoza pinch-hit Mauricio for Vientos, and the switch-hitter came through with a single.

I am fascinated to see how New York handles Vientos heading into the All-Star break, as there are many different outcomes that could be possible in this situation. What once looked like a long-term piece for the Mets could now be on the chopping block, and as a result, this storyline is my main headline for the week.

Prediction

In their series against the Orioles, I see the Mets winning two of three games. Jesse Winker will go yard in his return to the lineup, while Luis Torrens will break out of his slump and record two hits.  Juan Soto will have two home runs in the series, and Ronny Mauricio will find the stands once. 

After this series, I have the Mets at 54-40 heading into their last pre-All-Star game series against the Kansas City Royals.

The post Series Preview: Mets to Face Rebounding Orioles Squad appeared first on Metsmerized Online.