Series Preview: Mets Riding Momentum Entering Subway Series

For the first time in three weeks, the New York Mets (50-38) have won a series. What a sigh of relief. The club took two of three against the Milwaukee Brewers at home, bouncing back in a big way after losing Game 1 of Wednesday’s doubleheader. Brandon Nimmo led the way with homers in both wins, including a grand slam in Game 2 of the twin bill. Consecutive wins gives the Mets positive momentum as they get set for the second Subway Series of 2025.

The New York Yankees (48-39) are trending in the wrong direction after getting swept over a four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays. They have now fallen out of first place in the American League East. Neither team is playing anywhere near their best brand of baseball at the moment. It should make for a fascinating encounter.

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups this weekend.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Marcus Stroman (1-1, 8.16 ERA) vs. Justin Hagenman (0-0, 1.50 ERA): Stroman will make his second start since coming off the injured list. His first start went very well, as he threw five innings and allowed one run on three hits against the Athletics last Sunday. Stroman has pitched in this rivalry before, but not as a Yankee. He is 7-8 with a career 3.43 ERA at Citi Field. The Mets have been forced to adjust on the fly due to injuries on the pitching staff. Hagenman will fill in for Paul Blackburn, who was placed on the IL with a right shoulder impingement. Not good. Hagenman has pitched well when called upon at the big league level, though, and he threw 2 2/3 innings scoreless innings in his last MLB appearance against the Atlanta Braves on June 19.
• Saturday: Carlos Rodón (9-5, 2.95 ERA) vs. Frankie Montas (0-1, 6.00 ERA): After a strong month of May, Rodón had an up-and-down June with a 2-2 record and 3.71 ERA over six starts. Both of those losses came against the Boston Red Sox, who were able to tag him for eight runs across 10 innings. Rodón has been excellent on the road this season, going 4-2 with a 2.67 ERA. Montas has had two big league starts as a Met. One was great, the other could not have gone worse. He allowed six runs in four innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Sunday, with five of them coming in the first inning. Montas reportedly has been tipping pitches, so an adjustment is coming. Montas is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in four career appearances against the Yankees, his former team.
• Sunday: Max Fried (10-2, 2.13 ERA) vs. Brandon Waddell (0-0, 2.55 ERA): Fried has been everything the Yankees could have hoped for when they signed him, especially with Gerrit Cole out for the season. Fried is coming off a start in which he gave up four runs over six innings against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Home runs have started to hurt him more lately, as he’s given up six over his last seven outings. The former Brave is 4-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 14 career appearances at Citi Field. The Mets could go in a few directions with their Sunday starter, but Waddell is the likeliest option. He has only thrown more than four innings once since the beginning of June in both Triple-A and the big leagues. There had been some rumblings that Brandon Sproat is in consideration to make his MLB debut against the Yankees as well. He is coming off a strong start for Triple-A Syracuse, throwing six scoreless innings last Saturday, though Waddell seems to be getting the nod.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

When the Mets went to Yankee Stadium in May, all of the attention was on Juan Soto and his return to the Bronx. He proceeded to go 1-for-10 with four walks, three strikeouts and no extra base hits. He did not have a good series, and as a result, there was a lot of noise questioning his happiness and comfort level as a Met. To that point, Soto had moments of brilliance but no more than that. That has changed.

In 41 games since facing the Yankees, Soto is slashing .277/.416/.567 with 12 home runs and 28 RBIs. He was just named the National League Player of the Month for June, hitting an outstanding .322 with a 1.196 OPS across 27 contests. The Mets had a bad month as a team, but Soto was absolutely sensational. The player the Yankees faced a month-and-a-half ago is not the same one they will match up with this weekend.

PREDICTION

This is a difficult series to call. The Mets come into it feeling better about themselves after their series against the Brewers. On the other hand, the Yankees probably have the edge regarding starting pitching, but they just lost four games in a row to a division rival. It will be tight, but I think the Mets can grab a win against Rodón or Fried. Not much separates these two at the moment, but I have the Mets taking two of three.

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