Royals Review Roundtable: The halfway point
The Royals are 38-43, what do we make of the first half of games?
We are officially at the midpoint of the season, with the Royals sitting at 38-43. They’ve lost 15 of 22 this month, including nine games in a row at home. We gathered our writers together to discuss what was wrong with the club and what they might do going forward.
The offense has clearly been the biggest problem so far this season. What is wrong and what would you do to try to fix things?
Matthew LaMar: The biggest thing that’s wrong is that they just don’t have the talent—they’re playing four or five guys every night who are borderline MLB players. I think there is absolutely no downside with trying a completely new batch of hitting coaching personnel and I am frankly somewhat concerned that we haven’t seen even a perfunctory sort of role shuffling to try to switch things up.
RoyalTreatment: There is not enough talent, that is what is wrong. Maikel Garcia has taken a large step forward, but it is pretty much him, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinnie Pasquantino. That’s it. Salvy is at an age and level where you want him at seven in the lineup, India has been okay at getting on base but not good overall, and after you get past the fourth hitter its a lot of bench players not guys you want starting every day.
If you want to fix it, a big bat from outside the current organization needs to be brought in. That hopefully takes pressure off to help Bobby be back to 2024 Bobby and Jac Caglianone to relax and do what he can as he acclimates to the league. That would go a long way toward a fix, but still only get them to league average or maybe slightly better if Jac really starts to figure things out.
Max Rieper: I outlined many of the problems a few weeks ago. They don’t walk and they have no power. That’s a recipe for a bad lineup. Last year they had some good luck with runners in scoring position, but that’s not really a sustainable way to score runs.
Cullen Jekel: There’s no power on this team. Plenty of singles to go around but the lack of extra-base hit power is glaring. Everyone seems to be laying off good pitches to hit in order to get that perfect one, and it’s not coming.
To change it, the team needs to a) become more aggressive early in the count or b) acquire a power hitter. Both are easier said than done. Of the two, the former is more likely, but it still won’t be easy.
Hokius: What is RIGHT with the offense? About the only thing they do at an above-average level is hit singles. There’s no power, not just no home run power, but no doubles power either. There are no walks. There’s a lot of watching fat pitches and swinging at bad pitches. The top six hitters in the lineup have all hit at an above-average level at some point in their careers, minus Caglianione, who still doesn’t look overmatched but is not catching fire as quickly as Royals fans had hoped. Honestly, the top five have all had hot stretches at various points this year.
We have to give credit to the hitting coaches for their successes. Bobby Witt Jr. came out of a slump when they helped him find a mechanical flaw. Maikel Garcia has been a revelation. But the only remaining lever for the team to pull is replacing the hitting coaches. I don’t have a lot of faith that will work after everything else has failed, but it’s that or nothing.
Which player are you most concerned about, and which one do you have the most faith can improve in the second half?
Cullen Jekel: Salvy concerns me the most. He’s not getting any younger, and his pitch selection seems to be somehow getting worse, which I did not believe possible. He can still crush a ball over the plate, which begs the question of why any pitcher bothers throwing him strikes. He’s at the end of the line.
I’ll say Caglianone improves the most in the second half. He’s had a tough start. His two homers came after a day off so I’m banking on him performing better after the break.
Matthew LaMar: I am concerned about Salvador Perez because the Royals need him to be productive and he simply has not been, and I am also concerned that the Royals will be unable to make objective decisions about making him sit and about the team option for next year’s contract. And the easy answer on the flip side: Bob will be just fine.
Hokius: The player I’m most concerned about is Jonathan India. The hope for many of us was that Kauffman Stadium’s expansive outfield would reward his poor power with fewer warning track flyouts and more doubles. That hasn’t happened. He’s having by far his worst offensive career in the big leagues because what little power he had seems to have diminished even further. He’s still walking a fair bit, but not enough to make up for the lack of defense or power.
Caglianone is probably the one I think can do the best in the second half. His strikeout and swinging strike rates suggest he’s not overmatched by big league pitchers, but I wonder if the lack of a threat behind him is preventing him from getting any juicy pitches and he’s probably not going to be a high walk-rate guy, at least not this early in his career. Still, that’s easily fixed by swapping him in the order with someone above him. Maybe the Royals should try leading him off!
Max Rieper: I think Jonathan India is concerning because it speaks to something with this organization that is failing the offense. He was a pretty solid hitter before he got here, and his numbers have just cratered. Is it hitting in this lineup? Hitting in this stadium? The coaching staff? Too much BBQ? Internally-developed players not hitting is one thing, having guys come here from outside the organization and faceplant is deeply concerning.
RoyalTreatment: I am most concerned about Lucas Erceg because protecting leads has become extremely fraught. With Harvey still hurt, if Erceg can’t get back to being awesome, this bullpen becomes weak to go along with the problems on offense and then the starters feel like they have to be perfect and go deep, and things could get much, much worse.
We are still a month to go before the trade deadline, how do you think the Royals should be approaching these next few weeks in regards to being buyers or sellers?
Matthew LaMar: The Royals don’t have to make a decision on if they’re buyers or sellers for a long time and shouldn’t pull the trigger early. That is, unless they, like, lose their next 10 games and are clearly out of contention at the All-Star break. Either way, though, I think trading Seth Lugo could happen even if they’re buyers.
Cullen Jekel: I’ve argued that they need to go for it while having the young core under club control but they’re trending toward selling. I absolutely hate that but maybe dealing away a player or two will light a fire in the rest of the guys.
Look for offers to be strongly entertained on Lugo, Lorenzen, and Bubic among the pitchers, plus Jonathan India.
Hokius: I’m struggling to think of the last time being a seller worked out for KC. Sure, they have better assets than any season I can recall in Seth Lugo, Hunter Harvey (if healthy), Michael Lorenzen, and even Jonathan India if the Royals want to give up on that experiment and let someone else have him for next season. But there is still a ton of talent on this team, the pitching is still elite, and it feels like if they could get hot, they could tear up the league. Maybe adding an experienced big league bat would fire the spark that calling up rookies and utility players has not.
Max Rieper: There is still a chance they could get hot over three weeks and become buyers again, but time is running out. If they become sellers, I don’t think they need to strip it to the bone or anything, but Lugo is the obvious trade piece, and you probably should really consider trading Kris Bubic, who is under club control through 2026. This is his peak value and he could probably fetch a pretty intriguing young hitter.
RoyalTreatment: I think buying looks foolish right now unless you can find some cheap upgrades like last season without giving up any of the Blake Mitchell, Carter Jensen, or Noah Cameron sorts. I just don’t know that anything else in the system is good enough to get you anything other than a serviceable bullpen rental. No way I’m giving up one of the few good prospects to augment a team that looks this far away from contention right now.
Give me one second-half prediction.
Hokius: Bobby Witt Jr. goes on a power tear in July and finishes the season as a 30-40 player.
RoyalTreatment: Caglianone and Bobby Witt Jr. both hit 15 home runs in the second half, which makes us all feel better about next year while we watch Seth Lugo, Carlos Estevez, and maybe a couple others get traded away in a couple of weeks.
Matthew LaMar: Kansas City goes on at least one hot run that gets people talking before falling back below .500 on the year.
Cullen Jekel: Gosh, this recent skid has me down, and I’m not thinking positively at all. I doubt this would change anything in the team’s fortune, but I’ll predict the team finally makes a change at hitting coach.
Max Rieper: Hitting coach Alec Zumwalt is fired, but Keonne DeRenne is his replacement.