Free Agent Profile: Jakob Junis, RHP

Jakob Junis, RHP

Position: RHP B/T: R/R

Age: 32 (09/16/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 24 G (6 GS), 67 IP, 2.69 ERA, 0.851 WHIP, 4-0, 51 K, 8 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 162 ERA+, 20.2% K%, 3.2% BB%, 3.83 xERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 0.9 fWAR, 1.8 bWAR

Rundown

Jakob Junis enjoyed a bit of a resurgence in 2022 and 2023 with the San Francisco Giants, leading him to sign a one-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers that included a mutual option ahead of the 2024 season. However, he went on the injured list on April 6 with a shoulder injury and didn’t return until June 22. Junis was effective when healthy though, posting a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings before getting dealt to the Cincinnati Reds along with Joey Wiemer for Frankie Montas.

Junis was used exclusively as a reliever from June until August, but the Reds moved him to the starting rotation in September. He turned in a 1.57 ERA over 28 2/3 innings in his final six appearances of the season – five of which were starts. In fact, his numbers indicate he was far more effective as a starter, posting a 1.55 ERA in his six starts compared to his 3.55 ERA as a reliever. On the surface, this was the best Junis had ever performed in the majors.

Under the hood, there are some question marks surrounding Junis’ performance. He surrendered a 42.4% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 90 miles per hour – both of which were his highest marks since 2021. However, his opponents managed just a .224 BABiP, the lowest of his career by a wide margin (his previous low was .297 in 2017). Junis also saw his ground-ball rate drop four percent, while his flyball and line-drive rates both increased by a little over two percent. His strikeout rate dropped from 26.2% to 20.2%, though his walk rate also dropped to a career-best 3.2%. Homers have always been Junis’ biggest weakness, but his 3.2% home run rate was a tick lower than his 2023 mark of 3.3%.

Junis relies on a four-pitch mix, leaning most heavily on his slider (45.3%) and sinker (36.2%). He also mixes in a four-seam fastball and a change-up. Junis has never been a particularly hard thrower, and his velocity dropped on all four of his pitches this past season, though that could be attributed to being used more frequently as a starter compared to 2023.

His slider is his most effective pitch, but his sinker saw the biggest improvement from 2023, racking up a plus-4 run value after getting torched for a negative-9 mark in 2023. Perhaps that offering became more effective because he started throwing his four-seamer more, which he also improved significantly from the season prior. Junis also held both righties and lefties in check, with lefties only posting a .644 OPS against him while righties had a .565 OPS.

Contract

Junis declined his end of a $8 million mutual option at the end of the 2024 season. He isn’t listed among MLB Trade Rumors‘ Top 50 Free Agents, but FanGraphs predicts he will receive a one-year deal worth $6 million.

Recommendation

Signing Junis feels like a typical David Stearns move – he’s a pitcher who won’t cost much money and has experience working as both a starter and a reliever. Even if Junis regresses closer to his expected stats, he would slot in well as a back-end starter or as a swingman for the bullpen. He would be a low-risk signing that could add to the depth the team has built this offseason.

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