Relentless: Mariners vs. Orioles Series Preview
The Mariners look to snap out of their slide against the O’s.
The Mariners have had about as bad a two week stretch as you could imagine and the schedule isn’t letting up anytime soon. On the heels of losing their first home series since mid-April, the M’s will welcome one of the best teams in the American League for another big test of their mettle. Thankfully, T-Mobile Park has been a relative bastion for the ballclub; Seattle has won two-thirds of their games at home, the second best home record in the AL. They’ll need every advantage they can get as they try to right their listing season.
The Orioles and Yankees have been locked in a fierce battle for the top of the AL East this year and Baltimore enters this series in Seattle in a virtual tie for the division lead. They’ve been helped by a New York ballclub that’s had about as bad a two week stretch as the Mariners, though Baltimore isn’t necessarily playing their best ball right now either. Prior to winning three of four from the Rangers last weekend, the O’s had lost two straight series to the Astros and Guardians.
Like the Astros lineups of yore, the Orioles lineup is pretty relentless. Their weakest link is arguably Cedric Mullins, though he just posted a 140 wRC+ in June after a pretty slow start to the season. The duo of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman is as good as any one-two punch in baseball and the four guys behind them all have wRC+’s over 120. And their revolving door of top prospects continues to turn; they recently recalled Heston Kjerstad, their number one pick from the 2020 draft, and he’s blasted two home runs in six games since returning to the big leagues.
Probable Pitchers
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Grayson Rodriguez struggled a bit upon his debut in the big leagues last year, so much so that he was sent back to Triple-A at the end of May. Once he was recalled after the All-Star break, he posted a phenomenal 2.58 ERA and 2.76 FIP across 13 second-half starts. He hasn’t been as good as that stretch in his sophomore season, but he’s firmly established himself as a frontline starter for the O’s, making good on the high expectations placed on him as a top prospect. He relies pretty heavily on his fastball even though he has three truly excellent secondary pitches, each with whiff rates sitting around 30%. His changeup is the best of the bunch, though he’s really worked on developing his slider into a weapon to use against right-handed batters.
From a previous series preview:
Burnes gives the Orioles a true frontline ace to lead their rotation this year. Since 2021, he’s ranked second in the majors with 16.5 fWAR, showing a valuable combination of dominance and durability. If there’s one thing to be worried about, it’s a strikeout rate that’s fallen each year since his breakout in ‘21; it has dropped from 35.6% that season to just 23.3% this year. His cutter, the foundation of all his success, has been a little more hittable this year, even if the pitch’s overall expected wOBA is still a fantastic .294. His trio of secondary offerings earn the majority of the swings-and-misses in his arsenal and he’s throwing his two breaking balls a little more often to make up for the drop in effectiveness of his cutter.
Burnes allowed a single unearned run against the Mariners in his previous outing against them, striking out 11 in six innings.
From a previous series preview:
Dean Kremer has continued to improve year-over-year since his breakout in 2022. This year, his strikeout rate has reached 25.3% while maintaining a low-ish walk rate. He’s swapped in an effective splitter for his mediocre changeup which accounts for some of that improvement. The biggest problem he’s struggled with is a four-seam fastball that’s far too crushable. Opposing batters have already hit six home runs off the pitch and it has a whopping .770 expected SLG. He has good carry on the pitch and locates it in areas that generally earn swings-and-misses, but when he misses his spot up in the zone, batters usually take advantage of it.
Kremer is currently on the IL with a triceps injury and has already made three rehab starts in Triple-A. The O’s haven’t announced their starter for Thursday’s game, but it’s a good bet that Kremer will be activated to make that start. The alternative would be to start Albert Suárez on regular rest thanks to the off day on Monday.
The Big Picture:
The Astros continue to climb the standings, pushing their record over .500 for the first time this season with a series win over the Mets last weekend. They started a four-game series against the Blue Jays yesterday and won in Toronto on Canada Day. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rangers continue to struggle, losing six straight last week before snapping that losing streak with a win on Sunday Night Baseball. They’re a game away from being closer in the standings to the A’s than they are a playoff spot. They’ll host the Padres for three games this week.