The Debate Between Justin Verlander And Carlos Rodón

Jacob deGrom is now officially gone and that means the hunt for a new ace to pair with Max Scherzer is well underway for the New York Mets. According to Andy Martino of SNY, the front office is determined to sign one of either Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón to put at the top of the rotation, with talks continuing with Verlander over the weekend.

Verlander has been a master of his craft for well over a decade now, while Rodón has been red hot in each of the past two years. So, who would be the better option for the Mets?

Justin Verlander

Verlander has been covered in-depth on this site and his sparkling resume speaks for itself. A Rookie of the Year, an American League MVP, three Cy Young Awards, the Triple Crown of pitching, three strikeout titles, three no-hitters, nine All-Star Games, and two World Series titles, the veteran is dancing his way into the Hall of Fame when all is said and done.

Drafted by the Detroit Tigers in 2004, Verlander did everything but win a championship in the Motor City and he finished his career with the Tigers with a 3.49 ERA. It is rare for players to achieve greatness in two places, but that’s exactly what the righty did after being traded to the Houston Astros in 2017.

In what was a blockbuster trade at the time, Verlander posted a 1.06 ERA in five starts before being crowned the MVP of the ALCS, where he struck out 21 and gave up just one earned run in two starts against the New York Yankees. He would become a World Series winner in 2017 and again in 2022 after an incredible season.

Despite returning from Tommy John surgery, Verlander was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball during 2022. He pitched to a career-best and a MLB-leading 1.75 ERA to go along with with 185 strikeouts and just 29 walks across 175 innings. He gave up one earned run or fewer in 20 of his 28 starts, finishing with a 18-4 record.

In terms of his potential fit with the Mets, there is no doubt that Verlander is built for the big stage and he would absolutely thrive under the big bright lights of New York City. Last year proved that the nine-time All-Star is still very much capable of pitching at the very peak of his powers. Further, he knows what it takes to get the job done deep in October and he’s a proven winner in every single aspect. If you are a legit contender that’s willing to go all in for a couple of years in order to win, then Verlander is probably your guy.

Of course, there are concerns. For starters, the three-time Cy Young Award winner will be pitching as a 40-year-old in 2023 and it will be a case of when and not if the regression comes. There will be a sudden drop-off in performance sometime soon and the risk of injuries will only increase the older Verlander gets.

Plus, it has been widely reported that the 39-year-old is looking to reset the market for starting pitchers, and he’s seeking a similar deal to the one Scherzer signed with the Mets last year. It was clear that owner Steve Cohen wasn’t willing to give a long-term deal to deGrom, but he may be willing to give a shorter-term deal with a high average annual salary to an ace who has done nothing but win throughout his career. Of course, that means relying on two players both over the age of 38 at the top of the rotation. Though, if Verlander can help the Mets win a World Series now, that might be a risk the organization is willing to take.

Carlos Rodón

If the Mets decide not to enter into a short-term marriage with Verlander, then it is very possible that Rodón could end up wearing a Mets’ uniform in 2023 and beyond. After all, general manager Billy Eppler has already spoken to the top left-handed starter on the market and there is genuine interest there.

And why wouldn’t there be? Rodón is coming off an incredible two-year stretch where he performed to a consistent and elite level with the Chicago White Sox and then the San Francisco Giants. The lefty threw a no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians during the 2021 season, ultimately finishing with a 13-5 record, a 2.37 ERA and 185 strikeouts in over 130 innings pitched. As a result, Rodón finished in fifth place for the Cy Young Award and earned his first trip to the All-Star Game.

It only got better from there. After hitting the open market last winter, Rodón signed a two-year, $44-million deal (opt out after the 2022 season) with the Giants and he absolutely dominated on the West Coast. In what proved to be his best-ever season in the majors, the Miami native made the All-Star Game for the second-straight season. He also broke Tim Lincecum‘s team record for most double-digit strikeout games in a season with 11. Rodón finished with a 14-8 record to go along with a 2.88 ERA and a career-high 237 strikeouts.

The only black mark against Rodón was the fact that, prior to the 2021 season, he couldn’t stay healthy. After enjoying success in his rookie year with the White Sox, pitching to a 3.75 ERA, injuries began to derail Rodón’s once-promising career. His value was then at an all-time low after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2019 and making only four starts during the shortened season in 2020.

Having proved that he can stay healthy and having re-established himself as a very, very good starter over the last two years, Rodón would be an intriguing option for the Mets. At 29-years-old, he’s younger than Verlander, Scherzer, and deGrom and could be a key piece of this rotation for the long term. If he can remain off the shelf and remain on his current upwards trajectory, then Rodón could turn out to be the guy to lead this starting staff for years to come.

That’s a big if, of course, given that the last two years, as impressive as they were, are still a small sample size and you can’t blame teams for wondering if maybe that was the exception rather than the rule. However, given his young age, and that he’s still in his peak years, giving Rodón a long-term contract could be the smart play by the Mets.

MLB Trade Rumors is projecting a five-year, $140-million deal with an average annual value $28 million per season. Meanwhile, Fangraphs projects a five-year, $135-million contract. If the Mets can get the 2021 and 2022 versions of Rodón for the next five years at either of those values, then that could prove to be money well spent.

Final Thoughts

This is a tough one. Verlander is clearly the best pitcher left on the open market and he’s a proven winner with an impressive resume, a filthy arsenal of pitches, and the knowledge of what it takes to win when the chips are down in October. His resume speaks for itself and he is coming off one of the best seasons of his storied career at the grand old age of 39. Verlander is the perfect option for any team looking to win now. On the flip side, he will be 40 in 2023 and you are probably only going to get one or two more years maximum of very, very good baseball from Verlander.

With Rodón, you are getting a much younger pitcher who could take over from the 38-year-old Scherzer in a couple of years, and really lead this rotation in Queens for a long time. Domination has been the name of the game for Rodón over the past two seasons. He’s proved that he can be a high-end, top-of-the-rotation lefty starter who doesn’t walk a load of batters but can strike them out at an incredibly high rate. Of course, Rodón has only really put it together over the past two years and there is the risk that he returns to the player he was before 2021 and struggles with injuries yet again.

Ultimately, for the Mets, it depends what you are looking for. If they want to continue in the win-now mode, tomorrow doesn’t exist and you have to make the best decision for today. With that in mind, Verlander would be your guy. You know exactly what you are getting with the three-time Cy Young Award winner, and he proved as recently as last year, he still boasts filthy stuff and can help lead a team to glory in October.

Though, if New York wants to try to build a more consistent winner, Rodón would be the better long-term option. He would be a staple of the Mets’ rotation for year’s to come. Something, with how the Mets’ rotation is currently built, they do not have right now.

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