Taj's 2020-21 Offseason Plan: No Money, No (Major) Problem
Like everything else in 2020, this Hot Stove season is going to be super weird, and my offseason plan is going to reflect that. Certainty for Oakland is going to be in short supply (who’s going to be GM / President of Baseball Ops come opening day 2021, what’s the personnel budget going to be, will we be able to see any games live in person at Spring Training or in the 2021 regular season, are we going to be able to cobble together any sort of middle infield before March...etcetera).
Some relatively safe assumptions probably are: the A’s personnel budget is going to drop from where it was projected to be before Opening Day 2020 and there will be at least a few additions to the current 40 man roster.
Besides that, I’m just going to quote what Dan Szymborski over at Fangraphs recently said about the A’s current predicament as backdrop to my plan: "Oakland’s top-level talent still keeps it in the high-80s in wins without a single move, but I’m quite uneasy about the team’s overall depth." So basically...we have a relatively high floor, but we need more additions to be serious playoff contenders again.
Here’s my plan to address that, starting with the projected lineups against both RHP and LHP, along with the projected cost.
Opening Day 2021, 26-man roster player payroll estimate: $85,233,000 (11-percent less than where they ended in 2019).
Additions or re-signs in italics
Vs. RHP
1. Tommy LaStella (DH - L)
2. Ramon Laureano (CF - R)
3. Matt Chapman (3B - R)
4. Matt Olson (1B - L)
5. Mark Canha (LF - R)
6. Sean Murphy (C - R)
7. Adam Frazier (2B - L)
8. Stephen Piscotty (RF - R)
9. Daniel Robertson (SS - R)
Bench: Davis, Pinder, Heim, Dustin Fowler
Vs. LHP
1. Laureano (CF - R)
2. Pinder (2B - R)
3. Chapman - (3B - R)
4. Davis (DH - R)
5. Canha (LF - R)
6. Olson (1B - L)
7. Murphy (C - R)
8. Piscotty (RF - R)
9. Robertson (SS - R)
AAA depth: Neuse, Machin, Barrera, Brown, Bolt, Orf, Kozma
SP
1 - Luzardo
2 - Montas
3 - Manaea
4 - Bassitt
5 - Puk
AAA depth: Daulton Jefferies, Grant Holmes, Brian Howard, Parker Dunshee
Bullpen
CL - Tommy Hunter
SU - Diekman
SU - Trivino
SU - Wendelken
SU - Burch Smith
Middle Relief - Kaprielian
Long Man - Weems
LHRP - One of Tony Watson / Sean Doolittle / Jake McGee (basically, cheap vet with some recent success)
Signings Explanations
Tommy La Stella - 2-years / $14 million ($6 million in 2021, $8 million in 2022)
- I loved what La Stella brought to the lineup in 2020 and still think he’s the ideal fit from an offensive balance perspective. However, at this point I’m just straight up against playing him in the field more than a few times a week. I like him in a sort of DH hybrid role: take most at-bats as the DH against RHP, but also start a few games a week at 2B, 3B and even 1B to give others a breather or turn through the DH slot. He actually has fairly decent defensive marks at 3B and 1B in his career, so he offers a bit of versatility there
- I also think he forms an ideal platoon partner with Khris Davis: through all of his recent struggles, KD has continued to produce against LHP (134 wRC+ in 2020, 145 wRC+ in 2019). Let him play out his days in Oaktown hammering left-handed starters, rather than hoping for a miraculous turnaround in 2021, and by combining what both he and La Stella do best, you’ll probably get something like 140 wRC+ from the DH slot, which is pretty huge!
Tommy Hunter - 1-year, $1 million
- In looking for relievers to bolster the depleted pen, I’m looking for cheap vets who bring some velocity, groundball-ish tendencies, suppresses homers, experience closing games and could serve as a mentor to the younger guys like Kaprielian and Weems who are probably the heir apparents to late-inning roles with the team moving forward. Hunter provides a lot of that, and while he’s a totally non-sexy journeyman, I think he’d be able to fill the role capably
LHRP - Tony Watson / Sean Doolittle / Jake McGee / TJ McFarland / etcetera - Take your pick for league minimum or $1 million
- The Oakland org is incredibly thin on left handed relievers throughout the system; I think the best strategy for this role is to sign a whole bunch of candidates to MiLB deals with invites to Spring Training and then break camp with one of them if they impress or show reasonable capability
- The A’s have a bit of flexibility here as Diekman and his rubber arm and general equal effectiveness against both righties and lefties won’t require the team to have to find a "perfect" option as a second lefty in the pen, just someone with a pulse who is strong against LHB and can maybe chew up some innings if called upon to be "sacrificial lamb" for blow outs or extra inning games
Trades Explanations
Adam Frazier from the Pirates for 3B Jordan Diaz & OF Junior Perez
- Oakland was interested in Frazier last winter and even after a down 2020, I think they’ll still be interested in him this year. He brings a lot of what we all like with Kolten Wong (LHH, low strikeouts, relatively young) with less defensive chops, but still solid 2B defense and two years of club control remaining. Diaz & Perez are interchangeable with any other non top-10 prospects in this deal, IMHO.
Daniel Robertson from the Giants for cash considerations
- This is probably my one major outside the box idea; Robertson was originally an A’s 1st round draft pick back in 2012, along with Matt Olson and Addison Russell. I’ve kept my eye on him ever since he was traded to Tampa as part of the Ben Zobrist deal. After a promising 2018 as utility guy with Tampa, he’s kind of muddled along, most recently getting some token at-bats with the Giants last year, without really ever impressing in any area.
- This is what I like about him: he’s cheap (a non-tender candidate with a projected salary of $1.3 million ARB-1), is still young (26), has major league experience at SS and according to DRS, is not terrible there (-1 for his career, though UZR is a different story) and thanks to a good batting eye (+10% career walk rate) can probably get on base at around a .330-ish clip at the bottom of a good lineup
- Flanked by ultra-rangey Chapman on his left and solid Frazier up the middle, I think he could hack it at SS at least for a year or two while Nick Allen seasons a bit more.
- I kind of think of him as a Marcus Semien type project: a guy who is naturally athletic and young enough who, through coaching / defensive placement, can maximize his experience and tools to take a leap or two with both the glove and bat if given the opportunity
- I’d rather give SS to a young, cheap / potential breakout candidate like this, rather than spend $3-4 million on filler like Freddy Galvis
Other Notes
- I’ve kept Dustin Fowler as a backup outfielder, because: he’s cheap, out of options, can backup CF better than others on the roster, bats left-handed and can serve as a decent late-inning pinch runner for La Stella / Piscotty / Murphy
- I’ve non-tendered Tony Kemp: I loved what the guy brought at times in 2020; he was a real sparkplug in the lineup, on the bases and in the community; but, I think he’s redundant if we bring Frazier onboard and re-sign La Stella. I’d be totally open to re-signing him to an MiLB deal and inviting him to Spring Training in case one of the above mentioned guys or Chad Pinder gets injured during Spring Training
There it is! Let me know whatcha think!