Armchair's Offseason Plan

Introduction

Exceeding expectations and then falling off a cliff – your 2020 White Sox, ladies and gentlemen. There’s a lot to be excited about, but also a lot to work on.

Manager

Tony La Russa. I think he has the right personality to connect with guys like Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez, and his decade away from baseball should have him coming in very refreshed.

In all seriousness, I’ll join Trooper’s idea of Matt Quatraro managing and James Shields replacing Don Cooper.

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Nomar Mazara, $5.9 million – Non-tender

Yolmer Sánchez, $2 million – Tender

Adam Engel, $1.4 million – Tender

Carlos Rodón, $4.55 million – Non-tender

Lucas Giolito, $5.3 million – Tender

Reynaldo López, $2.2 million – Tender

Evan Marshall, $1.9 million – Tender

Jace Fry, $1 million – Tender

Mazara and Rodon are dropped like 3rd period French. Giolito is an extension candidate. I’m trading Lopez.

Impending Free Agents

Re-sign, cut loose, or extend a qualifying offer of $18.9 million? (Explain any tough or complicated calls.)

· Alex Colomé (2020 salary: $10,532,500) – cut loose.

Unless your name is Aroldis Chapman, if you’re a reliever that’s been paid in the last five seasons, your contract looks bad.

· James McCann (2020 salary: $5.4 million) – Re-sign 3 years 25.5 million

8.5M AAV puts McCann as the 6th highest paid catcher in baseball. If we can give him this amount of money and have him start maybe 70 games behind the plate and another 40 at DH/1B, he might be enticed to not move to Pittsburgh and accept their starting catcher job.

· Jarrod Dyson (2020 salary: $2 million) – Cut Loose.

Team Contract Options

Write "pick up" or "decline," and explain any tough or complicated calls.

· Edwin Encarnación (2021 salary: $12 million) – Decline

· Gio González (2021 salary: $7 million) – Decline.

· Leury García (2021 salary: $3.5 million) – Pick up. Bat-first utility piece. I wanted Jurickson Profar or Brad Miller for this role, but they’re going to be more expensive.

Free agents

· No. 1: Jose Quintana (Three Years, $34.5 million). Welcome back old friend, we missed you. His 2019 got wiped out by a hand injury, but it looks like he put that behind him late in the year, registering a FIP in the low 3s (small sample size). He’s not the top guy on the market, so he’s not going to command a salary in the $20M/year range. He’s also probably not the 200 inning per season guy that he was when he was last with the Sox. What he can be is a reliable ~180 inning guy to slot in the middle of the rotation.

No. 2: Michael Brantley (One Year, $14 million). I did say earlier that McCann would get some DH at bats, but I never said he’d be the primary DH. This position has been a bottomless pit for the White Sox in recent years, and Brantley brings some impressive splits against righties as well as postseason experience. This is a bat that can bring balance to the lineup in a way that Andrew Vaughn and his 760 OPS in A-ball probably can’t from the jump.

INTERNATIONAL FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Norge Vera ($1.5 million). This was reported a while ago. He should slide in the development pool and be near the level of Matt Thompson, Jared Kelley, and Andrew Dalquist.

No. 2: Yoelqui Cespedes (the rest of the pool, and trade a fringe/40 cut player for bonus $ if you have to). The #1 ranked international prospect in this pool and younger half-brother of Yoenis Cespedes – although his tool breakdown is closer to Luis Robert. He is rumored to be weighing his options between signing via the international player pool, entering the MLB draft, or playing in Japan. He is also rumored to want a quick path to the majors. We can offer money and a shot to compete for the right field job.

Trades

· No. 1: Reynaldo Lopez and Yermin Mercedes to the Rockies for Sam Hilliard and Jon Gray

Scouting report on Hilliard, as he’s an under the radar guy. He was an older draft pick that primarily pitched in college, so he’s still a little raw with the bat at 27 years old. That being said, he’s shown a lot of power to go with his swing and miss tendencies. He’s shown slightly above average speed and an absolute cannon of an arm in the field. There’s a lot of potential to buy on a pre-arbitration salary, and (not like it’s a high bar) he’ll be better than Mazara was last year. In a small sample size, he has an 880 OPS against righties. He will compete with Yoelqui Cespedes for the 4th outfielder spot (even though the winner of this competition will likely get more playing time than Adam Engel).

Jon Gray has one year left on his deal. I think the Rockies will want to extract some value out of him, and I think the White Sox are a pretty logical trade partner. This allows the Sox to have two of Dunning, Cease, and Kopech work out their flaws in Charlotte or wherever minor league games are played this year and also gives them depth as its best to have 8 or 9 starters for a season.

It would have been more fun to trade for Joey Gallo & Lance Lynn or Michael Conforto/Brandon Nimmo & Noah Syndergaard, but I’d rather not rid the farm of Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, Matt Thompson, Drew Dalquist, and probably Benyamin Bailey to get either of those deals done.

No. 2: Gavin Sheets to the Rays for Jose Alvarado

Alvarado is entering arbitration off of two not so impressive seasons, which means the Rays could look to flip him. His velocity still looks good. Sheets is redundant for the Sox, but has value as a hitter. The Rays have success with this kind of profile.

SUMMARY

Catching: Yasmani Grandal, James McCann

Elite but expensive. Grandal probably gets 100 starts and McCann gets 60. Both can log time at DH and 1B. Collins and Zavala are waiting in the wings.

Infield: Jose Abreu (1B), Nick Madrigal (2B), Tim Anderson (SS), Yoan Moncada (3B), Leury Garcia (INF), Yolmer Sanchez (INF)

Anderson will come in mad that he didn’t win the batting title, Abreu will look to repeat his MVP performance. Moncada will come back after spending the offseason frozen in carbonite. And Madrigal, I don’t know. I wanted him to bulk up and work on his defense but he’ll be in a sling for 6 months. Stay slap happy I guess. Yolmer Sanchez backs up 2nd, short, and 3rd. Leury also backs up those positions as well as the three outfield spots. Vaughn, Burger, Mendick, and Yolbert Sanchez are waiting in the wings.

Outfield: Eloy Jimenez (LF), Michael Brantley (LF/DH), Luis Robert (CF), Sam Hilliard (RF), Adam Engel (OF)

Hilliard beats out Cespedes for the outfield job and will platoon with Engel. Brantley slots in as primary DH, but can slot in left field on days after Eloy gets stuck in the net. Robert stays in center (and wherever he feels like roaming) and hopefully works a lot on his pitch recognition in the offseason, because if we can replicate his bat from the first 40 games over a full season – good luck everyone else. Gonzalez, Rutherford, Cespedes and Adolfo are waiting in the wings.

Starting Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Quintana, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning

Established front 3. Dunning beats out Kopech and Cease for the 5th starter job, but we’re going to use all 3. Jon Gray holds down the fort in that 4 spot in a contract year.

Cease, Kopech, Jon Stiever, and Bernardo Flores are waiting in the wings.

Bullpen – Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet, Codi Heuer, Jose Alvarado, Jace Fry, Jimmy Cordero, Matt Foster, Evan Marshall

Reliever volatility is always an issue, and that’s why I didn’t want to waste my money on free agent relievers.

Aaron Bummer gets promoted to closer. Crochet is a Josh Hader-style multi-inning piece but on the Chris Sale development path. Cordero and Fry are probably the low leverage guys with. Foster and Marshall are my middle relievers. Heuer and Alvarado are the setup guys.

In the minors we have Zack Burdi, Jimmy Lambert (when he’s healthy), Kodi Medeiros, Hunter Schryver, Bennett Sousa, Ryan Burr, etc.

Conclusion

Payroll is a little under $140M. The Tigers and Royals are a year away from having really annoying pitching staffs, so we should beat up on them this year. Twins are going to be formidable again, but we should compete with them. Cleveland’s going to hang in there after they inevitably trade Lindor to Philadelphia, but this roster should be better than theirs. Looking forward to a fun, occasionally frustrating season – hopefully one that we can see live and in person.