Realistic (no wait I mean the opposite of that… that’s what this is) off season plan….

So, we all kinda know the FO will probably take the same approach as last season, a couple of minor league SP like Chi Chi Gonzales or Ervin Santana on a bounce back, maybe bring back Aaron Brooks, add low end 5mil(ish) James Shields type, an old fill in catcher like McCann and Wieters and our off season will be essentially done……… Yawn……

On the flip side now as lovely as it is to imagine massive trades or cash outlays for a TOR type guy’s cause realistically that is unlikely to happen. So, my plan is based around trades which I think might be feasible or at least A’s like……

FYI, this is a high risk (going for players with high upside – but with lots of potential for failure), high reward approach…. With the aim of staying at the around the 80mil mark without trading any established stars…..

To get it out the way the Krush thing and the Lowrie extension have been talked about ad nauseum – Any Krush extension or Lowrie non-resigning would obviously impact payroll and would change the whole approach to the offseason.

However, until we know otherwise, I feel they should be included as part of any off-season plan. For my plan I am going to include them at Krush’s arb figure for this year of 18.1mil and Lowrie at a reasonable 2/22 with a club option.

My option if Jed doesn’t resign, I would go for Jordy Mercer on a 1/3mil deal with a club option (just in case Barreto needs a bit longer than expected) who had a down year and was only worth 0.1 WAR as a bounce back candidate. I chose Mercer as he’s a real get on base guy. He hit 251/315/381 last year, and as a former SS defensively he’s sound.

Additionally, Mercer could fill in at SS if Marcus gets injured and if Martin/Mateo isn’t ready. And hopefully once Barreto is ready, Mercer can then be used as trade bait.

Other arbitration:

Mike Fiers – $9.7MM Non-Tender

Rationale: Although Fiers had a career year last year but for all the good he has done this year, is still a 33-year-old righthander with diminishing velocity and ugly peripherals. And for mind is a massive regression candidate, so no…...

Marcus Semien – $6.6MM Tender

Blake Treinen – $5.8MM Tender

Sean Manaea – $3.8MM Tender

Kendall Graveman – $2.5MM Tender

Rationale: I think Kendall will be tendered just because he has shown that he can be a serviceable back or the rotation arm. In 2020 we would essentially be getting a back of the rotation starter, for the equivalent of 1/5 – Which would be probably be the type of player we would target anyway

Cory Gearrin – $2.4MM Tender

Liam Hendriks – $2.1MM Tender

Mark Canha – $2.1MM Tender

Ryan Buchter – $1.3MM Tender

Josh Phegley – $1.2MM Tender

Ryan Dull – $900K Tender

Other committed money: Piscotty 7.33, Petit 5.5, Rodney 4.5.

The total then with Krush’s and Jed’s salary is 75.13… Well that’s just dandy, already pretty much at budget, so will have to get creative….

Trade 1: Rodney, Phegley, and Martini to the Pirates for Cervelli.

Why this works for the Pirates: The Pirates work under tight financial constraints like the A’s and Cervelli is his last year of his contract (11mil). They already have his replacement in Elias Diaz who batted 286/339/452, and only need a cheap back up at this stage which Phegley provides.

At the moment the Pirates infield is a mess, well I say that, they barely have an infield at all at the moment. With no 2nd or SS currently (as far as I know, and Martin helps fill that need).

They also need help in the pen, a lead off type hitter and a LH outfielder. This trade fills out all those needs for them and helps them shed a little salary as well

Why this works for the A’s: Basically we have to get a primary catcher and we would struggle to get better than Cervelli, who had a 2.6 WAR season last year in 104 games.

He has long been considered one of the best two-way catchers in baseball. Renowned for being one of the best pitch framers in baseball and had a 2259/378/431 batting line.

Additionally, once you take off the comparative salary amounts, Cervalli for the season is essentially only costing us 4.75.

Increase in payroll 4.75 – Total: 79.88

Trade 2: Gearrin to the Diamondbacks for Shelby Miller.

Why this works for the Diamondbacks: Shelby’s return from TJ did not go well in 16 innings he gave up 24 hits, 5 HR, a WHIP of 2 and an ERA of -1.1. He would likely be a non-tender candidate, if he cost any more than the 5mil he is projected to earn.

The Dbacks are looking to re-tool and need help in the BP, and Gearrin offers them that. He’s cheap at 2.4mil, had a .8 WAR last year and had 3.77 ERA with 1.343 WHIP.

Why this works for the A’s: With TJ the spend on the fastball the spin rates etc typically come back after 12 months, the command and control typically start to return after 18months. And at the beginning of the season, Shelby will be 18months post his TJ.

And that’s what I saw when I saw Miller pitch (TV obviously) his stuff was all there the speed on the fast ball, the bite on the curve, the tail on the change up. He just had an issue with his command and location and when he did leave it up….. he got hit. He also seemed quite unlucky where a lot of ground balls, seemed to just find spaces.

It doesn’t get much more high risk, high reward than going for Miller but I personally think he’s worth the risk and could easily return to be a TOR stud again, especially with our outstanding infield defence and the cavernous nature of O’Co.

Increase in payroll 2.6 – Total: 82.48

Trade 3: Canha to the Indians for Salazar.

Why this works for the Indians: Salazar lost all of 2018 due to a shoulder injury and has been nothing but a sick note for them.

Additionally, the Indians are deep with starting pitching and losing Salazar shouldn’t be much of a blow to their organisation. What they don’t have however is an outfield, specifically any right handers, and their CF is questionable at best as at this stage is the spore Leonys Martin….

Why this works for the A’s: When I said it It doesn’t get much more high risk, high reward than going for Shelby Miller, I was wrong, because it’s just as risky with Salazar, and shoulder injuries are always and should be massively concerning.

However, it sounds like he’s on track to begin a throwing program this month and should be ready for spring training. If he’s healthy, he’s a upper mid-rotation arm that’s under 30 for 5mil this year and under team control until 2020. As he’s a Super Two player meaning he’s eligible for a fourth year of salary arbitration.

Personally given his history, I would look to start him in the BP then look to move him into the rotation.

Increase in payroll 2.9 – Total: 85.38

Trade 4: Blackburn, Petit, Fowler and Martin to the Reds for Cody Reed.

Why this works for the Reds: The reds rotation looks set now, and apparently if the reports are to be believed they are looking to compete next year.

Unfortunately for them they need help in a lot of areas, and a promising young guy that struggled in the show with a terrible 2.27 HR per 9 IP might just be expendable. And if this article is anything to go by it seems like they probably are about ready to move on https://blogredmachine.com/2017/10/11/cincinnati-reds-pitcher-cody-reed-plan/

They need a back of the rotation arm, bull pen help and a LH outfielder/CF to platoon w Hamilton/take a corner and an SS who could allow Suarez to move over to his more natural 3rd base position. And allow Pereza to move over to 2nd if need be to take over from Scooter when he eventually goes/gets traded.

Martin is that high ceiling SS who’s seemingly learnt finally how to bat that could fill that need for them

Blackburn is a viable 5th rotation piece innings eater who generates a lot of ground balls, which is important at the Great American being a hitter’s park and is pre-arb until 2021.

Petit was worth 1.7 WAR last year and has been very effective for a number of years in the long relief role, and the Reds need help to be able to get the ball to Iglesias.

Fowler proved last year physically he is over his injury with his running. He struggled with the bat sure, but you would have to think that will come again with more at bats. He’s a high ceiling OF who can play CF and exactly what the Reds want.

Why this works for the A’s: The Reds are a weird franchise, almost Oriolian how they manage to bugger it up with their pitching, and they have been rebuilding for what seems like since Pete Rose left.

They have accumulated some interesting arms over the years, only to either see them implode like Homer Bailey, disappear into nothingness like Rookie Davis, Robert Stephenson, Finnegan or trade them for next to nothing and watch them turn into very serviceable pieces i.e Cingrani, Brantley, Floro etc.

Anyway, my point being is just because they have buggered up with their development of a player, that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try to go after that player. As there may be plenty of upside still to unlock, and that I think is the case with Reed.

We need pitchers, controllable TOR type pitchers and Reed potentially offers just that.

Reed is still pre-arb (until 2020), he’s a 6.5" lefty with a 4 pitch mix which can all get strikes and can hit 98mph on his fast ball and has a knee buckling cross body slider, change up and sinker all pitched with decent command and control.

Yes, there’s no guarantee, and he may just be Henry Owens is disguise. As there isn’t with any young pitcher, as there isn’t with Puk or Luzardo either. But Reed is arguably as good talent wise as either of those 2, and just looks like a TOR starter, or at least has the tools to be just that.

Decrease in payroll 5.5 – Total: 79.88

Trade 5: Hendriks and Sawyer to the Blue Jays for Jon Harris.

Why this works for the Jays: It appears the Jays are on the verge of giving up on Harris and there is a reasonable likelihood that he will not make the 40man and be placed on waivers if this piece from bluebirdbanter is anything to go by https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/11/9/18021918/2018-blue-jays-rule-5-decisions-overview.

In return they get a reliver in Hendriks who proved (WC game excluded) to be a very effective starter and assuming that their 5th starter is going to be someone like Gavigilio. Then using a starter like Hendriks could be a useful piece for them..

Sawyer is one of our top 30 prospects a lefty who’s not over powering by any means, but reportedly very deceptive with a 3-pitch mix. Who could become a useful long reliever or a LOOGY.

Why this works for the A’s: Harris was a top-ranked prospect with a 4 pitch mix (a two seam fast ball, slider, curve and change up), with the slider and fastball being above average, with an ability to get strikes with all 4 pitches on both sides of the plate and all with good command and control.

I think being in a pitcher’s park like O’Co and with our outstanding infield defence and defence in general, I think we would get the best out of Harris and could be a real good pick up for us. If not, he could be a real good pen piece if starting doesn’t work out with that nasty fastball/slider combo.

Decrease in payroll 5.5 – Total: 79.88

Trade 6: Montas, Mateo, Neuse and Deichmann to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy

Why this works for the Orioles: The Orioles are just at the beginning their rebuild, and Bundy won’t be part of the organisation when they are ready to compete again.

Additionally, any potential return they will receive will only continue to go down the longer they hold onto him. Especially with him pitching, in the pitcher’s graveyard Camden seems to be.

That value will only decrease further if he has another season like last season, which could be very likely, given the state of the Orioles infield and outfield situation, not a lot of help for him there….. So for Baltimore the time to trade him is now.

Montas, still is intriguing as a player with his high spin rate on his fast ball which can touch 100 along with a slider which can just leave batters broken.

He still has the ability/potential to be a back of the rotation SP, an effective long reliever and has closer potential. In any of those capacity, he could be of real use in Baltimore. And they do seem to like a high octane, meh command and control relievers there.

Mateo and Neuse, could be the answer to the Orioles left side of the infield for years to come.

Finally the Orioles are really struggling to find outfielders and Deichmann could be one of the answers in a corner for them.

Why this works for the A’s: Bundy has TOR stuff and as high of a ceiling as you could possibly get. He has 3 years of arbitration left so he’s cost controlled. He only earned 1.64mil last year and after a 0.1 WAR last season he likely isn’t in for much of a raise. Projected to get 3mil and I think he will be pleased with that.

Increase in payroll 3 – Total: 82.88

Trade 7: Ryan Dull to the Astro’s for Garrett Stubbs

Why this works for the Astro’s: The Astros need bull pen help and love a high spin rate (hell they’ve doubled Cole’s) and Ryan already has higher than average. So I’m sure when he goes there he will be unhittable, as they will have miraculously got him spinning it more than a whirling dervish.

Stubbs appears to be blocked with Herrmann being picked up, Stasi already there and rumours that the Astros will be after Realmuto. So it is unlikely to be protected in the Rule 5, due to his size and that profiles as a back-up catcher. So for mind it will be unlikely that they get a better offer than this.

Why this works for the A’s: Stubbs profiles more as a back up…. Perfect, that’s what we need with Cervelli this year and for Murphy going forward. He’s a lefty, a solid defender with a good arm and hit 310/382/455 in AAA last year.

Decrease in payroll .9 – Total: 81.98

Trade 8: Skye Bolt to the Twins for Tyler Jay

This is basically a swap of former high ceiling prospects who are both rule 5 risks.

Why this works for the Twin’s: Bolt is a toolsy OF who seemed to finally work out how to handle a bat with a 260/347/474 line between A+ and AA and could be useful piece to the help the Twins OF needs.

Why this works for the A’s: Jay had injury issues when he was tried out as a starter when first drafted, however since moving back in the pen in 2017, those injury issues seem to be behind him. His fastball sits around 94-96, with a plus slider and an average curve and change up. Our second lefty out of the pen.

Trade 8: Darin Blanco to the Braves for Jacob Webb

This is another swap of former high ceiling prospects who are both rule 5 risks.

Why this works for the Braves: Webb is unlikely to be protected in the Rule 5, given the number of big arms in the Braves system so he needs to be traded as he will be unlikely to make it through. However, they are low on OF prospects and Blanco has enough tools to be interesting especially that +++ speed.

Why this works for the A’s: Webb is a two- pitch power guy, a mid-90’s fastball with quick arm action and a slider with good depth. He creates a lot of strike outs 69 in 53 innings with a WHIP of 1.19 pitched in AA and AAA in 2018. He was used as the closer, so he is used to high leverage situations and so as with Wendelken potentially a high end useful BP piece.

Trade 9: Matt Milburn to the Jays for Dalton Pompey

Why his works for the Blue Jays: There is no room left on their roster to continue holding onto Pompey, and will likely to be released on waivers. Matt Milburn is a SP with some upside and was pretty good at A+ last year 3.55 ERA, 96⅓ ip, 86 Ks, 11 BB, 8 HR, 110 hits, 3.41 FIP.

Why his works for the A’s: I’ve always liked Pompey as a player, he has a high up side and always felt he just needs to be given a decent chance. He has all the tools, is a plus defender (important given the spaces at O’Co) and bats a respectable 255/325/393 at AAA and as a 4th OF option seems ideal. As he’s a switch hitter, so could platoon with Pinder as well as act as a back-up for Laureano if we need to give him a rest.

So our opening date 25man roster line up is.

Starting pitchers: Miller, Bundy, Reed, Harris, Mengden/Bassitt

LH Relievers: Buchter, Jay. RH Relievers: Salazar, Wendelken, Webb, Trevino, Treinan (CL)

Catchers: Cervelli/Stubbs

Infield: Olsen, Chapman, Semien, Lowrie (Mercer) Barreto.

Outfield: Piscotty, Laureano, Pinder/Pompey

DH: Krush

Right that’s it, and there’s a lot of trades here (out with old in with the new as it were), and I would severely doubt the FO would make this number of trades. But there might be one or two in here that you like the look of or fill you with nothing but unending rage.

Varying degrees of praise or recriminations below please….