Juan Two Three Nicasio
This offseason has been an interesting one, I guess. Not exciting, but interesting. Let me take you back to early December. Remember Shohei Ohtani? Of course you do. He was the crush we wrote sappy Valentines to, who ended up going to prom with the cool guy with the convertible and a mustache. Of course Ohtani was plan A. A two-way superstar player, who can hit balls deep into the gap, as well as break off devastating curveballs, is a luxury that any ballclub would have traded their uvula for. But, in the end, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of the Western Hemisphere got him. And the Mariners get to see Ohtani in those ugly red uniforms 20 times this season.
So plan A didn’t work. But plan B is pretty exciting, on a micro level. After failing to land Ohtani, Trader Jerry pivoted his offseason focus toward the bullpen. And the biggest signing is that of Juan Nicasio. Nicasio had a busy season in 2017, buttoning up three different uniforms as he started the season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, was foolishly placed on waivers, and claimed by the Philadelphia Phillies in late August, who pretty quickly flipped him for actual prospects to the St. Louis Cardinals. What an exhausting year. Through all the turmoil and change, Nicasio put up good numbers. The Mariners newest bullpen stud is extremely durable, leading the National League in appearances with 76, putting up a 2.61 ERA, with a 1.078 WHIP and a 9.0 K/9.
Nicasio is a real do-it-all pitcher. In 2013, as a member of the Colorado Rockies, he made 31 starts, going 9-9 with a 5.14 ERA. He slowly started to transition into a spot-starter/ long-reliever role over the next several seasons. He began the 2017 season as a starter for the Pirates, before eventually finishing as a closer for their biggest division rival. He has only 7 career saves, but has at-least some experience in basically every role the bullpen could ask of him. Should Mariners closer Edwin Diaz struggle, as he did in May of last year, Nicasio would be a good option to hold the door closed as the hurricane whips through. If Felix or one of the other starters goes down, Nicasio is a good depth option for a start, meaning the Mariners shouldn’t have to rely on a Tacoma to Seattle shuttle service to be able to field a competitive pitching staff.
The 2014 Kansas City Royals showed how valuable a late-inning bullpen squad can be. Their 7-8-9 inning sequence of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland all finished with ERA’s under 2, and dominated their way to a World Series Championship. And Juan Nicasio, with his solid K/9 and late-inning successes, could be the missing piece late-inning piece in a Mariners bullpen that had all the stability of a house built on marshmallow fluff in 2017. Nicasio joins Nick Vincent and Edwin Diaz as go-to late inning options for the M’s, taking the pressure off the starters to go deep into games. With Felix’s arm mileage finally beginning to take a toll, and James Paxton being no guarantee to finish a season without injury, Nicasio could prove to be incredibly valuable. The MLB trend as of late has been to turn the game over to the bullpen before the starter has to face the lineup a third time. Once a manager turns to his late inning guys, who ideally have fastballs in the mid to upper nineties and a knee-buckling breaking pitch, opposing batters are often left picking up the pieces. Imagine a sequence of Paxton for six innings, then Vincent for the seventh, Nicasio for the eighth, and Diaz closing it out. Is it just me, or are you getting a little sweaty thinking about it too?
Sure, this offseason has been slow. It took the Cubs five months to give Yu Darvish a below-market deal, and Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, and several other decent-to-good players sit unsigned. Nicasio is not the sexy move that signing Japan’s biggest superstar would’ve been, but it is a move the Mariners had to make. Emilio Pagan was traded for a piece of old driftwood with two sentient eyes and broken hand, and Brazilian firebomb Thyago Vieria was traded to the Southsiders, leaving some holes to patch in the Mariners mediocre bullpen. They finished last season at 3.6 fWAR, which is fine considering the constant shuffling of spot starters to and from Tacoma. The pen struggled at times, as Marc Rzepczynski, Vincent, and Diaz all had periods of discontent, but overall was not TOO much of a liability. Now, with a veteran like Nicasio, the Mariners have some back up options, should any one pitcher struggle.
ZIPS projections this season have the Mariners bullpen finishing at 5 fWAR, perhaps a bit optimistic. But with Diaz, Vincent, Nicasio, along with David Phelps, and lefty James Pazos getting the majority of the calls, the bullpen should be a strength. Remember, last season the Mariners used 40 pitchers, tying an all-time major league record. I will go on record as saying that the Mariners will not come close to matching that number this year. God please, let me be right.
It seems like Jerry is counting on stability from his staff this year, a risky move, to say the least. Nicasio fills a huge role for the Mariners, who have done precious little this offseason to shore up any other part of the team. It’s a big ask, but one Nicasio will rise to. He will lead the AL in appearances this year. Write it down, and give me credit in September, once the Mariners win the Wild-Card game. You should be excited about this move. It’s pretty much the only thing.