The 2020 Tribe
I've been thinking about the Indians' "window" of contention. Santana is certainly a significant loss this year, but we are still considered to be one of the current "super teams" along with the Dodgers, Astros, Cubs, and now the Yankees with the acquisition of Stanton. There are more significant departures after 2018 - most notably Cody Allen and Andrew Miller. And you have to consider the affects of aging. So I decided to look ahead to 2020. I am sure my foresight is not 20/20, but here is a guess at the composition of that year's team, with age and salary.
Rotation:
1) Corey Kluber (age 34): $15.5 million (team option). Unless something drastic happens, you would assume the team will pick up our two-time Cy Young winner's option.
2) Carlos Carrasco (33) $9.5 million. This is also a team option, and again, same assumption.
3) Mike Clevinger (29) Arb-1. $5 million?
4) Trade Return (hoping for a pre-arb young pitcher)
5) Triston McKenzie / Shane Bieber / Aaron Civale / Julian Merryweather / Matt Esparza (pre-arb)
Bullpen:
1) Danny Salazar (30) Arb-4. $12 million? - Suppose we move Salazar to closer at some point.
2) Dan Otero (35) $1.5 million.
3) Nick Goody (29) Arb-2. $2 million?
4) Tyler Olson (31) Pre-arb.
5) Leandro Linares (26) Pre-arb.
6) Argenis Angulo (26) Pre-arb
7) Minor league FA or waiver pickup, etc.
The bullpen obviously is the hardest to forecast. Other names that are currently with the organization who could be factors in the 2020 bullpen include Shawn Armstrong, Cody Anderson, and Ryan Merritt. In the 2014 offseason, none of Goody, Otero, or Olson (or Andrew Miller, of course) were with the Indians' organization; Zach McAllister had come out of the bullpen a little, but was still considered a potential starter. Armstrong had just reached Akron, and one might have thought him a good candidate for the 2017 bullpen; indeed he played a role, but not full-time, riding the bus back-and-forth to Columbus. 2020 would be Armstrong's first arbitration-eligible season, so if he establishes himself as a reliable pitcher, he could stick around. Same for Cody Anderson, who could follow McAllister's path to the bullpen; 2020 would be his second arb year though. Merritt would still be pre-arb if he proves useful as a long-man or left-handed role player. As for the closer position, I don't know if we have any good upcoming closer candidates. Salazar might not move to the pen, but here in this post his name and the $12 million salary can at least stand in for an expensive reliever acquired from outside the organization.
Position players:
1B: Bobby Bradley (24) Pre-arb
2B: Jose Ramirez (28) $6.25 million
SS: Lindor (27) Arb-2: $10 million?
3B: F. Mejia (25) Pre-arb; this could also be Diaz, if he figures out how to hit, or Yu Cheng-Chang.
C: Perez (31) $3.5 million / Haase (27), pre-Arb (note: the presence of Haase and Perez here is why I'm assuming perhaps that Mejia will indeed move to third, as the Indians' use of him this year suggests is an option).
LF: FA (Or Trade Return, etc.) - figure on about $5 million here for some bargain-shopping free agent or trade piece.
CF: Zimmer (27), pre-Arb - unless he's a Super-2. This could also be Allen instead of Zimmer
RF: FA: $18 million?
DH: Encarnacion (37) $20 million - this is a club option, so the Indians could decline it and avoid this expense if necessary.
Bench:
IF: Gonzalez (29) Arb-1 $1.5 million?
IF/OF: Minor league FA or scrap heap pickup
OF: Allen (27), pre-Arb
I believe a roster like this would come out to about $120 million total once you add it all up. That's probably less than the 2020 payroll will be in reality; the 2018 roster will probably be around 130 million. For 2020, you could probably add a pricier free agent in the outfield and/or in the bullpen, or maybe at first base if Bobby Bradley doesn't work out.
Trevor Bauer is not on this team; this scenario assumes that he is traded at some point. I am also assuming Danny Salazar not being in the rotation. Of course, you could also envision Carrasco being traded, with Salazar and/or Bauer in the rotation instead. Technically, all five of Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, and Clevinger are under team control through 2020, so they could all be in the rotation if the team can manage the expense - especially if young position players like Zimmer and Mejia reach their potential and make the rest of the team both good and cheap enough that Encarnacion or the major outfield free agent signing I am envisioning in right field are not needed.
Jason Kipnis could also be on this team - the Indians have a $16.5 million club option on him. But I am assuming he is traded. Hopefully the return for him and Bauer could fill in one or two of the holes here.
So how good does this team look? Perhaps the real problem will be after 2020, when Carrasco's contract is up; Kluber will be 35 and the last club option on his contract is for 2021.