Red Sox’s ‘Most Likely Playoff Outcome’ Remains This

Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora doesn’t want to talk about a potential postseason berth, but despite back-to-back losses against the New York Yankees, the team remains in good shape to qualify for the playoffs.

As the Red Sox try to avoid a sweep vs. the Yankees on Sunday night, they enter action with an 81.4% chance to make the tournament (per Fangraphs) for the first time since 2021. The numbers drastically dip to 0.5% for winning the AL East and 3.2% for capturing the World Series.

Mac Cerullo of The Boston Herald broke down the AL playoff race on Sunday morning, saying that the Red Sox’s most likely result is facing the Yankees in the wild-card round.

“The Red Sox already have little chance of winning the AL East, but if they want to give themselves a shot they’ll need to close the gap over the next week leading into their huge series in Toronto. One way or another, those games will determine whether or not the Red Sox can catch the Blue Jays,” he wrote. “Considering how light Toronto and New York’s remaining schedules are, Boston can’t count on their opponents tripping up, so it’ll be crucial that they take care of business against the Athletics and Rays.”

While Boston has 12 regular season games remaining after Sunday night — including a tough six-game slate vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers to close — New York’s schedule to end September is “a joke,” per Cerullo.

The Yankees will play the last-place Baltimore Orioles seven times in their final 13 contests after Sunday, as well as six games vs. the AL Central’s two worst teams (the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins).

“If the AL East crown slips away, then the Red Sox’s next goal should be making sure their final series against the Tigers is as meaningless as possible,” Cerullo wrote. “Boston’s most likely playoff outcome is a Wild Card series against the Yankees, so if that’s already locked up then the Red Sox can line up their rotation, rest Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito for the final weekend and gear up for their first playoff run since 2021.”