Seven Storylines To Follow As Patriots Open Division Play Vs. Dolphins

The New England Patriots are looking to get back on track against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2.

Mike Vrabel’s squad didn’t get off to the best start during their season-opening loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, though that matchup did provide some insight into what exactly they’ll need to correct heading into their first divisional matchup on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

I’ve got seven specific storylines to keep your eye on:

1. WEATHER WORRIES

The Patriots have historically struggled during early-season games down south, dropping three of their last four games played at Hard Rock Stadium in September and October.

Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill ran wild in 2023, Mac Jones had two backbreaking turnovers in 2022 and Knowshon Moreno (in his antepenultimate game) powered an unbelievable second-half comeback in 2014 — but the biggest factor attributed to those losses has always been tied to the weather.

New England isn’t nearly as hot or humid or wet or… y’know, gross, as Miami.

Vrabel talked about the weather during one of his pre-practice press conferences this week, saying: “It’s going to be warm, it’s going to be wet, it’ll be humid. I’m sure it’ll rain, probably lightning, who knows.”

AccuWeather doesn’t know, but they gave prediction that calls for a high of 86 and a 60% chance of rain.

2. TUA TYPICALLY TRIUMPHS

Tua Tagovailoa has come out victorious in all seven of his starts against New England, which is good.

Tagovailoa has completed 69% of his passes for 1,616 yards, 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions in those games — which, again, is good.

The Patriots haven’t given us any reason to believe things will change on Sunday, but perhaps they can take advantage of a signal-caller who is coming off a putrid three-turnover performance during opening weekend.

3. FINDING BALANCE

“We have to be more balanced. We have to use our run actions and be able to run the football,” Vrabel said following his club’s season-opening loss. “It’s hard to turn it into a drop-back passing game in this league. That’s just the facts.”

No, he wasn’t lying.

Drake Maye had more dropbacks (53) than any other quarterback in Week 1, and has almost zero chance of finding success should he be forced to continue that trend — which means there needs to be a concerted effort to establish the run in Week 2.

Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson combined for 45 total yards, but the complete and total lack of a running game primarily came from the fact that the club was trailing from an early point in the game and abandoned it altogether. Hunter Henry and Garrett Bradbury were also horrific in the running game, so there was that.

I’d imagine there’s a concerted effort to get the stable of running backs some early opportunities toward the boundary and see if they can get themselves going.

4. OLD FRIENDS, NEW PLACE

The Dolphins currently employ Matthew Judon, Jake Bailey, Jack Jones, Joe Cardona, Cole Strange, Yodny Cajuste (injured reserve) and JaMycal Hasty (practice squad) — a group of names you’re surely familiar with.

The Patriots once laid claim to all of those players, who will now be playing with some added motivation.

5. TAKING AIM AT TUA

Kion Smith and Larry Borom are slated start on the right side of the Dolphins’ offensive line on Sunday.

*insert that one gif of Milton Williams simulating an (expletive) whooping*

The Patriots need to take advantage of their opponents’ sudden (and gigantic) weakness, which should come by way of stunts along the defensive front that force communication breakdowns by the offense.

Harold Landry III might have missed practice early in the week, but he’s the league’s early sack leader and needs to keep pumping those numbers if there’s any hope of this being a competitive season for New England.

6. DEFENSIVE CHANGES UNDER NEW PLAY-CALLER

New England defensive coordinator Terrell Williams was away from the team for a significant portion of the week, and could miss the game altogether.

“It’s nothing related to the incident from March, but it was something that just came up and we’ll have to run some more tests and we think it’s best, I think it’s best, that he focus on that and we prepare for Miami,” Vrabel said.

Williams, of course, had a health scare back in the spring that caused him to spend a significant amount of time away from the team — with inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr taking over in his absense.

Kuhr will likely take the reins should Williams miss the trip to Miami, which leaves plenty of questions regarding the overall gameplan.

7. KEAGAN’S BETTING CORNER

If you’re going to read these stories, you ought to make some money doing it.

The Dolphins blitzed at the highest rate in the entire league last weekend, and had the third-worst pressure rate — meaning they aren’t very good at it. The Patriots have an opportunity to take advantage should that trend continue, with the running backs likely being a focal point in the passing game.

Josh McDaniels said it himself, that group needs the ball more.

I’d imagine that comes by way of screens and check downs, which already seemed to be the primary way of getting the ball into the hands of rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson in Week 1.

The Pick: TreVeyon Henderson O17.5 REC YDS (-110 at BetMGM)

What will you be watching for? Let us know in the comments, or send a note @KeaganStiefel on X!