How Does Red Sox Rotation Stack Up Against Other Playoff Contenders?
With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Boston Red Sox appear headed for their first playoff berth since 2021. They enter play on Friday 15 games over .500 and half a game behind the New York Yankees for the American League’s top wild card spot.
Assuming they hang on and make it to October, how does their starting rotation stack up against the other 11 teams in the postseason field?
According to Enos Sarris of The Athletic, Boston’s rotation ranks eighth out of the 12 teams currently in playoff position and fifth out of six in the American League, ahead of only the Toronto Blue Jays. His rankings are based on the projected WAR and ERA of each team’s top three starters, who are Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito in the Red Sox’s case.
Boston has a legitimate ace at the top in Crochet (14-5, 2.67 ERA), who’s one of the best pitchers in baseball despite his recent slump. Sarris isn’t concerned about him and also believes in Bello’s breakout (11-6, 3.07 ERA), which has been fueled by his improved cutter.
Giolito (10-2, 3.38 ERA) has come on strong after a slow start, but Sarris’ model doesn’t trust his rebound. Because of that and the effects of Fenway Park, the Red Sox’s rotation has the highest projected ERA (3.95) among postseason teams.
That said, Sarris acknowledges that “ERA doesn’t tell the whole story,” and mentioned rookie Payton Tolle as a potential wild card. Boston’s rotation has been one of the best in baseball over the last few months and could exceed expectations.
Given Sarris’ assessment, however, the Red Sox may regret not adding a big-name starting pitcher like Joe Ryan at the trade deadline. They settled for depth in Dustin May, who’s 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA since joining them and is unlikely to start a playoff game.
There’s an old saying that pitching wins championships. Time will tell if Boston has enough of it.