Detroit is where the Packers' division-title dreams die: Thursday Night Football predictions, odds

The Green Bay Packers visit the Detroit Lions on Thursday night, trailing their division rivals by two games in the NFC North. A win gives the Packers a split in the season series after last month’s 24-14 loss, and pulls them within a game of Detroit with four games left on the schedule — more than enough time to close the gap and make a push for the division crown. A loss all but leaves Green Bay clinging to a wild card spot.

Suffice it to say, this is a bigger game for the Packers than the Lions.

However, there’s a reason the Lions are ahead of the Packers in the first place. They aren’t just the class of the North or even the NFC, they might be the class of the entire NFL. They’re 3.5-point favorites Thursday, and as their 11-1 record proves (9-3 ATS), beating them ain’t so easy.

But hey, the Packers know that already.

Betting splits

Spread: 61% of bets on Lions / 53% of handle on Packers

Moneyline: 51% of bets on Packers / 63% of handle on Packers

Total: 58% of bets on over / 54% of handle on over

Injuries

Packers: CB Jaire Alexander (out), WR Romeo Doubs (out), LB Edgerrin Cooper (out), CB Corey Ballentine (out)

Lions: T Taylor Decker (out), DL Levi Onwuzurike (out), DL Josh Paschal (out), DL DJ Reader (out)

Prince’s Pick

Lions -3.5

When it comes to the Lions, I always look at their two-headed rushing attack and ability to control time of possession as their biggest strength. More importantly, their commitment to the ground game forces the defense to leave holes open in the secondary, and Jared Goff has taken advantage of that.

The injuries along Detroit’s defensive front could allow Green Bay to take a similar approach with Josh Jacobs. But when it comes time to take shots down the field, Detroit has better playmakers on the outside and a better secondary to defend Green Bay’s playmakers.

Prince’s Prop

Jared Goff Under 253.5 passing yards

This is an insanely big line for Goff, who threw for just 145 yards the last time Detroit played the Packers. And though he eclipsed this total four times in his last six games, he’s only done it once in his last three. The Lions simply run too well for him to have to throw for this many yards most games. On the season, he’s averaging 248 yards.

To add to that, the Packers have allowed this many passing yards just once in their last four games.

Anytime TD scorer

Sam LaPorta (+175)

Green Bay’s defense is among the NFL leaders in catches and yards allowed to tight ends, which is good news for LaPorta who has seen an uptick in targets the last few weeks. He’s been targeted six times in five of his last six games, including each of the last four. And he has four touchdowns in that span. Don’t be surprised to see him find the end zone once again.