Underlying goal stats show there is hope for Tottenham under Ange Postecoglou

Despite a disappointing start to the season, Spurs’ underlying numbers suggest the team is excelling in one key area, highlighting a positive foundation for improvement.

Spurs’ impressive underlying stats

Tottenham Hotspur’s Premier League campaign might appear underwhelming at first glance, but the underlying numbers paint a much brighter picture of a team performing at a high level in several key metrics.

Spurs are leading the Premier League in goals scored, showcasing an attacking potency that has been a hallmark of their play this season. They rank third for big chances created and first for goals scored per match, underlining their ability to carve out opportunities and convert them with remarkable efficiency.

Defensively, Spurs’ pressing game has been equally impressive. The team leads the league in possession won in the final third, reflecting a structured, high-intensity approach that disrupts opponents’ attempts to build play from the back.

This pressing style has been a key element of the Ange Postecoglou philosophy, ensuring Spurs dominate large periods of matches even if the results have not always gone their way.

However, this statistical dominance has not been fully reflected in the league table. After 11 games, Spurs sit in 10th place with five wins, five losses, and a single draw. While they have produced some standout performances against top sides, inconsistency has plagued their season, with frustrating results against teams they were expected to beat contributing to their current position.

xG difference paints a brighter picture

While Spurs’ position in the Premier League table may not reflect their potential, their underlying numbers tell a different story. According to a tweet by The xG Philosophy, Tottenham currently rank second in the league for expected goals (xG) difference—a stat calculated by subtracting xG for from xG against — trailing only Liverpool.

This metric reflects how dominant Spurs have been in creating high-quality chances while limiting their opponents’ opportunities, indicating a level of control in matches that has not always translated to results.

The numbers behind the narrative

The xG Philosophy’s analysis gives fans a reason for cautious optimism, as it suggests that Spurs’ struggles are less about systemic issues and more about isolated moments that have swung games out of their favour. This key metric could also serve as an indicator of a potential turnaround in fortunes if the team can iron out these lapses and convert their statistical dominance into tangible success.

In my opinion, this highlights an opportunity rather than a failure. If Spurs can maintain their statistical dominance while finding a way to translate that into consistency, the foundations are already in place for a strong second half of the season.

These underlying metrics are often harbingers of improved results, but only time will tell if Spurs can capitalise on their promise and turn potential into points.

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