Joe Mauer v Jorge Posada

It's been a while since I posted something here, but Mr. Hubler and I briefly discussed Joe Mauer and his Hall of Fame candidacy...which of course warmed up my gears. I pondered the comparison, and my initial reaction was: Mauer blows away Jorge Posada. I decided to investigate to settle the issue.

Joe Mauer & Jorge Posada played during somewhat different times:

Jorge Posada debuted in 1995, at the dawn of New York's most recent Golden Age and in the height of the steroid era. It took Jorge some time to solidify himself, but he assumed the starting duties for New York in 2000. Jorge staked out a position as a top tier batting catcher combining power with patience at the plate; kind of a poor man's Mike Piazza. His best offensive season came in 2007 when he batted a career high: .338/.426/.543, but his 2000 and 2003 seasons are a touch behind. Defensively he's a mixed bag. Nobody ever hated him, and he handled some truly excellent pitchers well; including CC Sabathia, Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens; but runners ran on him a lot, and he led the league in passed balls twice. He stayed at catcher forever, finally becoming a DH only at the end of his career at the age of 38, and he still caught over 80 games. Posada also offers an extensive post season career spanning 15 seasons, 29 series, including four World Championships and six pennants. He is, besides Yogi Berra, the most storied post season catcher in history.

Joe Mauer started in 2004, at the tail end of the steroid era. Unlike Posada, Mauer remained MLB side almost immediately. At first Mauer hit for high batting averages, with no power, and won a batting title in 2006. He lost the MVP that year to Justin Morneau, despite pretty clearly being a superior player. Everything came together for Joe in 2009 in his MVP season, again winning a batting title, combined with surprising power: 28 homeruns. Joe never hit even 15 home runs in any other season. Since 2009 Mauer has slowed down, still offering on base skills but with no power. Injury concerns caused Minnesota to move Joe from catcher in 2014, despite him only being 31. Since his move Joe has regressed further offensively. Unlike Posada Mauer was a terrific two way backstop, winning three Gold Gloves including in his MVP season. Mauer also rates above average defensively at first base. Also unlike Posada: Mauer only played in 3 post season series, and never beyond the ALDS, twice losing to Posada's Yankees.

Overall, the numbers paint a pretty clear picture: Mauer was a better hitter and defender than Posada. According to Baseball Reference Posada was -60 runs below average defensively for his career, while Mauer was +5. That's a pretty big swing regardless of how you slice it. Mauer also rated higher than Posada in pitch framing. Offensively the numbers are a bit closer, for their career batting lines:

Mauer: 6,870 PA .308/.391/.444 OPS+ 127, 1,836 hits, 130 HR, 825 BB-869 SO

Posada: 7,150 PA, .273/.374/.474 OPS+ 121, 1,664 hits, 275 HR, 936 BB-1,475 SO

Again, Mauer is pretty clearly the winner here: although Jorge offered greater power; Mauer walked more and hit for a higher batting average. In terms of WAR, JAWS ranks Mauer 9th all time, barely over the threshold for catchers (sandwiched by Bill Dickey and Ted Simmons) and Posada 16th, between two Hall of Famers: Buck Ewing and Ernie Lombardi (Ewing, it should be noted, played in the 1880s).

JAWS:

Mauer: 49.8/38.5/44.1
Posada: 42.7/32.7/37.7

It's pretty clear Posada falls below the current benchmark for catchers. Mauer falls in line statistically, but lacks a certain UMPH in his narrative. The good news for Mauer is his story isn't over yet; if he can play a few more years as a mediocre first baseman, I think he'll sneak into the Hall of Fame. Critically he needs to keep putting up high batting averages; retiring batting .300, and with 2,000 hits will greatly help with the older curmudgeons who won't like his short time at catcher. Is Posada a Hall of Famer? It depends on how well you feel catcher is represented. He's pretty clearly below the contemporaries, and near contemporaries around him: Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez & Buster Posey are all better than Jorge; and Yadier Molina may surpass him too (especially if you grant him Papal Dispensation for his excellent defense). The most comparable Hall of Famer for Mauer is probably Mickey Cochrane, who had a brilliant but short career at catcher. Jorge Posada compares somewhat well to Ernie Lombardi, a VC choice.