Why Andrew Painter’s high ERA isn’t that concerning

Andrew Painter has made six appearances on a major-league mound, and so far, it’s been a mixed bag. Painter’s 5.28 ERA and 1.59 WHIP are not inspiring. But there are other numbers to look at when analyzing a pitcher.

When it comes to Painter, those other numbers suggest he’s been better than most pitchers who own an ERA as high as his.

Three of the more encouraging numbers for Painter so far are 3.59, 0.93 and .716.

The rookie right-hander has a 3.59 FIP, a statistic that takes defense out of its equation. It focuses on what a pitcher can control. And Painter’s done a nice job of that.

His 21.1% strikeout rate is below the league average. But his 6.8% walk rate ranks in the 76th percentile. He’s also only allowed three home runs, or 0.93 per nine innings. That’s much lower than it was a year ago.

One of the larger issues for Painter in 2025 was his tendency to give up the long ball. In 118 innings, he gave up 20 home runs. That’s 1.53 per nine innings. Improving upon that this year is a positive sign, and it’s part of that 3.59 FIP that’s much lower than his 5.28 ERA, a number that does not consider defense — something the Phillies have struggled with.

Another issue Painter had last year was against left-handed hitters. The right-hander allowed an .857 OPS to lefties in 2025. Teams know that. They appear to be stacking their lineups with lefties when facing Painter. Of the 133 batters he’s faced, 81 have been left-handed.

But opponents haven’t gotten the results they’ve been looking for. Painter is holding lefties to a .716 OPS. For context, left-handed hitters across the majors have a .747 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. Look for the Athletics, who had five left-handed hitters and a switch-hitter in their starting lineup against right-hander Zack Wheeler on Wednesday, to load their batting order with lefties again on Thursday against Painter.

To counteract a potential lefty-heavy lineup on Thursday, look for Painter to lean on two pitches. His better success against lefties has been because of his curveball and splitter.

Painter has thrown 64 curveballs and 60 splitters, and 56 of those curveballs and 49 of those splitters have been to left-handed batters. Those batters have recorded four combined hits against Painter’s curveball and splitter — all singles. Lefties are batting .143 against Painter’s curveball and .154 against his splitter.

Overall, Painter has allowed a .798 OPS. But it’s not as though hitters are consistently teeing off against him.

While Painter hasn’t induced a lot of swing-and-miss with a 20.9% whiff rate, he’s not allowed a lot of hard contact. He’s limited opponents to an 87.5 mph average exit velocity and 32.6% hard-hit rate, which rank in the 75th and 80th percentiles, respectively. It’s somewhat fair to assume that some of the balls put in play against Painter landed for hits because of not-so-good defense being played behind him. Luck, or lack thereof, has also played some role.

Yes, Painter has had his struggles. The Phillies’ defense and iffy luck are not the only reason for his high ERA and WHIP. He shoulders some of that blame. But the right-hander has flashed at times, and there are underlying numbers that suggest he’s better than what general statistics would leave many to believe.