Deep Dive into Tobias Myers

It’s easy to look at the Mets’ January blockbuster with Milwaukee and view it strictly as the “Freddy Peralta trade.” And to Peralta’s credit, that’s fair. But history shows that the secondary pieces in these deals often end up outplaying expectations. Think Trevor Williams in the Javier Báez trade back in 2021.

That secondary piece here is Tobias Myers.

To understand what the Mets actually acquired in Myers, we have to look past the surface-level ERA and dig into a profile that includes a chaotic journey through pro ball, and a pitch mix that is undergoing a fascinating evolution.

At 27 and possessing just two years of major-league experience, Myers is neither a prospect nor a proven veteran, but in both 2024 and 2025 he was able to provide serviceable rotation depth. But to understand what the Mets actually acquired, we have to look beyond ERA and dig into a profile shaped by a chaotic journey through pro ball.

Breaking Into the Big Leagues

Myers’ development is anything but linear. Drafted by the Orioles in 2016, he was traded to Tampa Bay a year later for former first overall pick Tim Beckham, then sent to Cleveland in 2021 in the deal that brought back Junior Caminero.

His career could have unraveled in 2022. In one calendar year, Myers pitched for the Triple-A affiliates of three organizations: the White Sox (Charlotte), Guardians (Columbus), and Giants (Sacramento). He was traded or waived three times in roughly eight months and posted ERAs of 15.92, 6.00, and 9.00, respectively, at each stop.

For most pitchers, a year like that would end a career. Myers, however, made the big-league roster in 2024 with Milwaukee, throwing 138 innings with a 3.00 ERA. His shortened 2025 gives a clearer picture of what he could become in New York.

Regression

Myers’ rookie 2024 season looked like a triumph on the surface, but the underlying metrics flashed warning signs that caught up to him in 2025. Last year, he threw 50 2/3 innings while bouncing between spot starts and long relief. His ERA rose to a still-respectable 3.55, but the peripherals remain concerning.

The most glaring issue was the collapse of his strikeout rate. In 2024, Myers posted a 22.3% strikeout rate, which is considered roughly average. In 2025, that number dropped to 17.3%. For context, anything below 18% puts a pitcher in a danger zone, forcing them to rely heavily on defense and batted-ball luck.

And rely on luck he did.

For two straight seasons, Myers has outperformed his expected metrics by nearly a full run. His FIP has hovered in the high-3.00s (3.91 and 3.92), suggesting a solid arm — but not the elite pitcher his ERA implies. His 2025 xFIP of 4.74 is especially alarming. Myers has also survived on a high strand rate, sitting between 78% and 81% across his MLB career. While some pitchers sustain elevated LOB%, pairing that with a low strikeout rate is rarely sustainable.

Additionally, Myers is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. In 2025, his ground ball rate was just 36.2%. The league average usually hovers around 43-44%. Being a fly-ball pitcher isn’t inherently bad, especially with a high pop-up rate, but for Myers, it leaves him exposed to the long ball. Last season, he kept his HR/9 at 0.89, thanks to allowing just enough soft contact and the forgiving dimensions of American Family Field. Luckily, moving to Citi Field is pretty much a lateral move in this regard. However, if his HR/9 regresses to the level suggested by his fly-ball rate, his 3.50 ERA would rise in response.

Pitch Arsenal

Perhaps the most notable aspect of Myers is his willingness to tinker with his arsenal. He doesn’t rely on a single dominant pitch; instead, it seems he survives by constantly reshaping his mix. Between 2024 and 2025, he completely overhauled his repertoire, an unusual move for a pitcher coming off a 3.00 ERA season.

In 2024, Myers relied on a traditional changeup 11.4% of the time. In 2025, he replaced it with a split-change, which he threw 15.6% of the time, a subtle tweak that changed his profile. The changeup had graded out as mediocre in pitch models, and Myers needed a stronger off-speed weapon to neutralize left-handed hitters who pick up his fastball early. The splitter filled that gap, adding a north-south element his previous mix lacked.

Myers currently works the strike zone via all four quadrants. He throws his four-seam fastball 45% of the time, sitting 93-94 mph with average shape (101 Stuff+) but above-average command. His cutter makes up 19.5% of his usage, while the sinker (16.8%) is used to jam right-handers. The splitter (15.6%) has started to emerge as his primary out pitch.

Myers’ issue is that none of these offerings generate elite whiff rates. His fastball has decent ride, but without premium velocity, his mistakes get punished. The introduction of the splitter is a nice sign of adaptability, but the drop in strikeouts indicates that it hasn’t yet become a true elite put-away pitch.

Potential Role

The Mets’ acquisition of Myers feels like a direct replacement for Brandon Sproat, whom they had to part with to land Peralta. It’s important to note that Myers still has options remaining and is earning the league minimum. When the rotation is healthy, he can serve as a long man, and when it is not, he can fill in as a spot starter. His 2025 usage, which included 16 relief appearances in 22 total outings, shows he is already comfortable in that role.

The Mets should be realistic. They did not acquire a pitcher who they can consistently rely on to post a 3.00 ERA. Instead, Myers is a low-strikeout, fly-ball-oriented right-hander who relies on location, sequencing, and adaptability. For a team needing depth, he is an extremely low-cost gamble with a solid floor and a limited ceiling.

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