Trade Profile: Trevor Megill, RP

Trevor Megill

Position: RP B/T: L/R

Player Data: Age: 32 (12/05/1993)

2025 Traditional Stats: 50 G, 47 IP, 2.49 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 6-3, 30 SV, 60 K, 17 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 168 ERA+, 31.3% K%, 8.9% BB%, 3.19 xERA, 2.50 FIP, 3.08 xFIP, 1.5 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR

Rundown

Trevor Megill is the definition of a late bloomer. A seventh-round pick by the Padres in 2015, the towering righty didn’t debut in the majors until the age of 27 in 2021, when he was selected by the Cubs in the Rule 5 Draft. After a rocky season with Chicago, he was claimed off waivers by the Twins, but struggled to find his footing in 2022. Early in the 2023 season, Megill was dealt to the Brewers, and he began to turn a corner with his first above-average major league season by ERA+.

In his age-30 season, Megill became the Brewers’ closer while Devin Williams was on the injured list, collecting 21 saves with a strong 2.72 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings. While he lost the closer’s role when Williams returned, Megill reclaimed the position when Milwaukee dealt Williams to the Yankees. Megill proved 2024 was no fluke, enjoying the best season of his career and making his first All-Star Game, posting a 2.49 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 47 innings while racking up 30 saves. Unfortunately, Megill’s regular season was short-circuited when he was placed on the injured list with a flexor strain on August 27. Megill returned in time for the playoffs and pitched well, allowing just one earned run and striking out five batters against one walk in five appearances.

Megill set career-best marks in ERA, strikeouts, strikeout rate, FIP, xFIP, xERA, and ground-ball rate. He also allowed just three home runs, and his fly-ball rate dropped from 35.6% to 26.1%. Megill’s walk rate increased slightly, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio remained nearly identical to 2024.

Megill relies on two pitches – a high-90s fastball that can touch triple digits, and a power curveball that sits in the high 80s. His fastball was rather mortal – opponents hit .264 against it and had a .440 xSLG against it, though it did produce a plus-1 run value. However, his curveball was dominant, with opponents hitting just .121 with a .197 slugging percentage and a 48.9% whiff rate against it. Megill’s curveball had a plus-7 run value and a 2.4 run value per 100 pitches, which represents a huge improvement over the plus-2 mark it registered in 2024.

Trade Package

Megill has two years left of arbitration and will be a free agent following the 2027 season. The Brewers have won three consecutive NL Central titles and four in the last five years, so they will likely command major league-ready talent in return for any of their trade chips. When Milwaukee traded Devin Williams in 2024, they received former All-Star lefty Nestor Cortes and infielder Caleb Durbin, who was unranked in prospect lists but expected to break camp in 2025.

Mets Receive:

• RHP Trevor Megill

Brewers Receive:

• RHP Kodai Senga
• OF Nick Morabito (Mets’ No. 16 prospect)
• $5 million

The Brewers get a major league arm in Senga, who has proven in the past that he can be a major league contributor. Since he’s owed $15 million over each of the next three years, the Mets will have to send some cash to offset a little bit of the contract. Morabito stole 49 bases for Double-A Binghamton and fits the Brewers’ mold of a speedster who gets on base at a solid clip.

Recommendation

The Mets entered the offseason with a glaring need to upgrade their bullpen, and they need to do so even more now that Edwin Díaz has agreed to sign with the Dodgers. The price for Megill likely wouldn’t be super steep, and he’s under team control for multiple years. If presented with the opportunity, trading for Megill should be a no-brainer for the Mets.

 

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