Free Agent Profile: Michael King, SP

Michael King

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 30 (05/25/1995)
2025 Traditional Stats: 15 G (15 Starts), 73 1/3 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 5-3, 76 K, 26 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 125 ERA+, 24.7% K%, 8.4% BB%, 4.30 xERA, 4.42 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 1.2 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR

Rundown

After a couple of successful seasons as a reliever, Michael King converted to being a starter late in the 2023 season and thrived. He silenced any doubts about his sustainability as a starter with a strong 2024 season, finishing seventh in National League Cy Young voting. Expectations for King were high entering the 2025 season, and he delivered early in the year. He posted a 2.59 ERA through his first 10 starts of the season, including a complete-game shutout against the Rockies on April 13 – his first major league complete game. Unfortunately, he was placed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation on May 25 and remained sidelined for over two months. King was activated on August 9, but threw just two innings against the Red Sox before being removed from the game. He was placed back on the injured list with left knee inflammation, and he would be sidelined for a month.

King’s overall numbers in 2025 pale in comparison to his 2024 performance – his ground-ball and strikeout rate decreased while his fly-ball rate increased, and he allowed 12 home runs in just 73 1/3 innings. His xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all considerably higher than his 3.44 ERA, and he gave up hard contact at a higher rate than he did in 2024. However, his stats are a little inflated by a disastrous outing against the Mets on September 16, where he allowed eight earned runs on 10 hits, including four home runs, in three innings. That outing caused King’s ERA to rise from 2.87 to 3.84, and his FIP to increase from 3.71 to 4.41. It was also the only start in which King allowed more than three earned runs. Over his last two regular-season outings of the year, King didn’t allow an earned run in 7 2/3 innings. He appeared in one postseason game, striking out three in a scoreless inning of work in Game 3 of the Padres’ Wild Card Series loss to the Cubs.

King doesn’t throw as hard as he did when he was a reliever, using a sinker and four-seamer that sit in the low-to-mid 90s, as well as a sweeper, slider, and changeup. His sinker produced a solid plus-3 run value, holding opponents to just a .209 batting average and six extra-base hits in 97 plate appearances. However, his four-seamer got crushed to the tune of a .349 batting average and .814 SLG, including six of the 12 home runs he surrendered, resulting in a negative-8 run value. King’s sweeper also got hit around, surrendering seven extra-base hits in just 47 plate appearances. King’s best pitch for the third year in a row was his changeup, which opponents hit just .181 against with a .209 SLG and only two extra-base hits. King’s changeup had a plus-6 run value and a 2.3 run value per 100 pitches.

Contract

King received a qualifying offer from the Padres, which he declined. MLB Trade Rumors predicts he will sign a four-year deal worth $80 million. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets recently held a meeting with King over Zoom. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that King is the Mets’ top rotation target.

Recommendation: Try to Sign

David Stearns is reportedly reluctant to give a long-term contract to a starter, but it doesn’t seem that it will take one to sign King. The Mets desperately need help at the top of their rotation, and King has proven over the past couple of years that he can be a very good starter. King has the highest ceiling of the remaining starters on the market, and the Mets should be aggressive in their pursuit of him.

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