2025 Report Card: Sean Manaea, LHP

Sean Manaea

Age: 33 (2/1/1992) B/T: R/L

Primary Stats: 2-4, 5.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 60 2/3 IP, 75 SO, 12 BB, 15 G (12 starts)
Advanced Stats: 72 ERA+, 28.5 K%, 4.6 BB%, 4.00 xERA, 4.39 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, .314 BABIP, 0.4 fWAR, -0.4 bWAR

2025 Salary: $25 million

Grade: D+

2025 Review

Sean Manaea felt soreness in his midsection shortly after arriving at spring training in February, and an MRI showed a right oblique strain that would force him to start the year on the injured list. While rehabbing in June, he was diagnosed with loose bodies in his left elbow. He made his season debut on July 13.

And while many Mets fans may have forgotten it because of the two disastrous months that would follow, Manaea was good in four July outings. He pitched to a 2.08 ERA over 17 1/3 innings, struck out 22, and walked four.

But when the calendar flipped to August, things fell apart. He gave up five earned runs against the Guardians on Aug. 4. In his next three starts, he gave up 12 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings. In three of those four poor outings, there was a pattern. He made it through the batting order the first time unscathed, then ran into trouble the second or third time through. A reporter asked him if he was tiring as the game went on.

“I wouldn’t say fatigued, I feel good,” Manaea said after it happened on Aug. 21 in a 9-3 loss to the Nationals. “I really have no explanation for why I’m hitting that wall.”

The Mets went 1-4 in games Manaea started in August, his ERA was 7.13 that month and September didn’t bring improvement. The Tigers and Phillies roughed him up and Carlos Mendoza decided his next outing would be a piggyback appearance in relief of Clay Holmes. That went well.

“He’s one of the best guys in the game,” Holmes said after Manaea threw five innings of one-run ball in the win. “I think everybody who’s been a teammate with Sean loves him. He’s a guy that he pours everything he has into this, into the guys in the locker room, into the game. When he struggles, everybody really feels it.”

Brett Baty showed Manaea a lot of love after that game: “I think he’s elite. And I think he’s been elite. The numbers might not show that. But I think he went out there and attacked hitters tonight and I think he was his best self.”

But that outing was the last time the Mets would win when Manaea made an appearance in 2025. He got the start on the final day of the regular season with the Mets needing a win to make the playoffs. He didn’t give up a run, but facing elimination, Mendoza thought it best to pull him after he walked two in the second inning.

After the loss, a reporter asked Manaea if anything was missing from the team this year.

“I think it starts with me,” he said. “Obviously, being hurt half the season isn’t ideal … but then to come back and perform like I did … if I had performed even half as good as I did last year … it’s just a complete failure … I think if I would have even done half as good we’d be in a way different spot.”

2026 Preview

It is still not known whether Manaea will have surgery to remove the loose bodies from his elbow. A decision will come after he physically cools down from the season, Andy Martino of SNY reported on Sept. 30. He finished the year with the elbow feeling well.

Coming off an excellent 2024, the Mets signed Manaea to a three-year, $75 million contract, so expect him to be in the rotation to start 2026. FanGraphs projects him to go 6-8 with a 4.55 ERA and throw 126 2/3 innings, an ERA which essentially falls at the midpoint between his 2024 (3.47) and 2025 ERA (5.64). (Have I uncovered a secret FanGraphs formula?)

If Manaea can come into camp healthy, I think he can outperform the projection, but I’d be surprised if he can reach his 2024 numbers.

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