Series Preview: Mets Host Rangers with Major Playoff Implications

Where should we start? The New York Mets (76-71) are in big trouble after being swept in a four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. They entered the week with an opportunity to get back into the race for a National League East title. Well, they went ahead and did anything but that. The Mets are now just 1 1/2 games ahead of San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds for the final Wild Card spot. It won’t get any easier for them, as the Texas Rangers (77-70) come to town to begin a critical homestand. Since August 20, they are a league-best 15-5. This recent hot streak has them back in the playoff hunt, as they open the weekend just two games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final American League Wild Card spot.

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Jacob deGrom (11-7, 2.78 ERA) vs. Jonah Tong (1-1, 4.09 ERA): For the first time since leaving the Mets, deGrom will take the mound at Citi Field. His last start in Queens came in Game 2 of their 2022 Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres. Over his first two years in Texas, he made a total of nine starts due to Tommy John surgery. This season, deGrom has already made 27 starts. He has been good but not great in recent weeks, pitching to a 3.66 ERA over his last six outings. As an old friend returns, a future stud matches up against him. The long ball hurt Tong his last time out, allowing three home runs over six innings against the Reds last Saturday. All three came against his four-seam fastball. Let’s see how the young Tong bounces back in the series opener.
• Saturday: Patrick Corbin (7-9, 4.36 ERA) vs. Brandon Sproat (0-1, 4.50 ERA): Corbin played an important role in the Washington Nationals winning the World Series in 2019. In the five seasons that followed, he struggled quite a bit. Corbin led the league in losses from 2021-23, in part due to playing for a rebuilding team. Nonetheless, Corbin has pitched well at times for the Rangers this season, although he owns a 6.34 ERA since the start of August. Sproat impressed in his debut last Sunday against the Reds despite taking the loss, giving up three runs over six innings. In particular, his breaking stuff was impressive, as six of his seven strikeouts came on his sweeper and his curveball. Sproat will make his first big league start at home on Saturday.
• Sunday: Jacob Latz (2-0, 2.91 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (4-1, 1.42 ERA): Latz has been invaluable for Texas, pitching in a variety of roles this season. With Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle and other rotation options on the injured list, his innings have increased. Each of his last three appearances have come as a starter, pitching to a 2.35 ERA over that stretch. Prior to this season, Latz had one career big league start, which came in 2021. McLean continues to exceed expectations with each passing start. Even when he doesn’t have his best stuff, he still manages to provide quality innings. McLean has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his first five outings. His last home start came on August 27 against the Phillies, when he threw eight shutout innings.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

The return of deGrom is big, but I think it would be getting even more attention if the Mets were playing well. Because they aren’t, though, the focus is on the team that is struggling across the board. With 15 games to go, the thought of the Mets missing the playoffs is very real. Both the Giants and the Reds are right on their heels, playing clean, crisp baseball with momentum of their side. A strong case can be made that either of them will get into the postseason ahead of the Mets, based off what we have seen in recent weeks. Things need to change, and quickly. Otherwise, the Mets will no longer have control of what October brings for them.

PREDICTION

Even with the absences of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and potentially Adolis García, the Rangers pose a big threat. With how the Mets played in Philadelphia, it’s difficult to predict a series victory. But in fairness, things do line up well from a pitching perspective. I think deGrom returns with a win, but Sproat and McLean follow that up with quality starts of their own. The Mets take two of three.

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