Despite Victory, Kodai Senga Struggles Once Again

There’s a few ways to describe how Kodai Senga pitched on Saturday. His manager went with “uncompetitive.”

The always meticulous Senga, who is fighting through his mechanics, has been pretty bad since returning from the injured list. He hasn’t been the Kodai Senga we grew accustomed to seeing pre-hamstring injury. That Kodai Senga was bound for the All-Star Game in Atlanta. However, this version of Kodai Senga bears a striking resemblance to the one we saw in the 2024 playoffs.

The 32-year-old has looked a bit unceremonious since his first start off the injured list in Kansas City. In what’s become emblematic of his last three performances on the mound, the Japanese right-handed starter struggled through four innings in the Mets’ 12-6 win over the Giants, allowing four runs on five hits, striking out four while walking three.

Since pitching four scoreless innings in New York’s final series before the All-Star Break, Senga has pitched just 12 innings, allowing 11 runs on 13 hits while striking out 12 and walking 11. He’s also allowed four homes in his past three games. Prior to getting injured, Senga had his bouts with command issues, sure, but he only allowed four home runs in those first 13 starts. He’s getting hit. And he’s getting hit hard.

Prior to being shelved for a few weeks, Senga’s ERA stood at 1.47. After being pulled in favor of Reed Garrett without factoring into Saturday’s decision, his ERA had ballooned up to 2.31. His numbers are still really good. And they would place anyone else in the National League Cy Young — perennial All-Star — conversation, of course, if there was a larger sample size. However, Senga has struggled mightily as of late.

One of the calling cards for Senga’s early season successes was pitching with runners in scoring position. Whenever that is a pitcher’s calling card, regression is usually around the corner. Senga’s expected figures, albeit still strong, were always higher than his actual production. Regression was bound to hit Senga at some point, that is what we are unfortunately seeing recently.

Hopefully, Senga is able to cut this regression off, and pitch to the pitcher he has shown to be throughout his career. Pitching has been largely a bright spot for New York all season long, however, with seemingly most of the team’s starter struggling recently, especially with going deep into games, Senga’s ability to figure it out is paramount.

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