MLB Week 16 Hot or Not: The week before the trade deadline

Diamondbacks sell first, White Sox and Bucs surprise, and Jays gear up to buy

Long-time, no-see! After a week off from our regularly-scheduled programming, the Hot or Not feature series is back. This recap covers the first full week back from the All-Star break from July 20-26.

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AL West
Hot: Nick Kurtz makes rookie history
Hitting for the cycle is one of the biggest accomplishments for any hitter, but Kurtz far surpassed it and achieved a truly prestigious and rare feat. He went 6-for-6 with six runs at Houston, eight RBIs, and four home runs to become the first Athletics player and rookie in history to hit four bombs in a single game. The Big Amish became only the 20th player in history to put on such a show — rarer than a no-hitter, a cycle, and even a perfect game. Research indicated that in terms of ballpark effects, Minute Maid Park “gave” Kurtz one homer and took one away, so that’s a wash; he also came within mere feet of a fifth homer, with one hit off of the wall. Kurtz boosted his AL Rookie of the Year odds with his historic night, and his slash line now sits at .305/.374/.686 with 23 home runs this year.

Not: Marcus Semien continues to slump
Semien’s hitting hasn’t improved since the midsummer break. Although he had a hot June, Semien slashed .095/.200/.238 in his first full week back. His July batting average sits below the Mendoza Line and he missed the All-Star Game for the first time since 2022. The Rangers miss his offensive production, as they sit six games back from the Astros in the division. If the Rangers hope to make a play for the postseason, Semien has to pull it together.

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AL Central
Hot: White Sox start off mashing
The second half White Sox have been impressive. After sweeping the Pirates with a +20 run differential, the Sox remained on the road and took two of three from the playoff-contending Rays. The lineup slashed .287/.328/.514 and it was backed up by a formidable bullpen. While they dropped their second game in the Crosstown series — a sight no Sox fan ever wants to see — Adrian Houser and the young squad gave Chicago more than enough to pummel the Cubs in the opener, 12-5. The Sox are playing their best stretch of baseball all year, too bad it’s right before everything changes come trade deadline.

Not: Detroit finally buckles
It’s about time the Tigers hit their first major road bump. After becoming the first team to win 60 games this year, the Tigers put a pin in the win column and dropped five straight. Detroit’s rotation combined for a 6.29 ERA and shared 26 runs over seven games. Even Jack Flaherty was chased out early by the Pirates (a reminder, a team that was just destroyed by the AL-worst White Sox), showing that every player is vulnerable at any given moment. It just goes to show that the Tigers are an injury or two away from tumbling from the top.

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AL East
Hot: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. terrorizes pitchers
Guerrero has been a nightmare for pitchers lately. He’s on a seven-game hit streak and slashed an insane .520/.571/.800, which surprisingly didn’t include a home run. Guerrero’s two doubles, two runs, and an RBI against Detroit helped Toronto ascend to best-in-MLB for the first time since 1992. Vladdy has done nothing all season but prove why the Blue Jays paid him $500 million for 14 years, and now the hottest team in baseball has never looked more poised to claim the AL pennant.

Not: Red Sox employees go on strike
Boston’s dirty laundry is being aired this season. First, it was the drama between the front office and Rafael Devers, now it’s labor strikes. Concessions employees at Fenway Park staged the ballpark’s first strike in 113 years during their recent home stand against the Dodgers. Fans were asked not to purchase concessions in the park to support the strike’s efforts to secure a contract with Aramark to raise employee wages and improve scheduling with respect to seniority. Boston can’t seem to catch a break from drama this year.

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NL West
Hot: Shohei Ohtani is back to setting records
Ohtani put on a show for Dodgers fans last week, homering in the second and third games against Milwaukee and in every game during Los Angeles’ home stand against the Twins to compile a five-game home run streak. His fifth home run — a 441-foot blast off Twins hurler Chris Paddack — tied Joc Pederson (2015) and Max Muncy (2019) for the consecutive games with a home run. With 38 home runs this season, Ohtani has the second-most among hitters.

Not: Diamondbacks fold first
Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks made the first major move during MLB’s trade deadline season by dealing Josh Naylor to the Mariners. This star-packed team is only 51-54, but they’re competing in the toughest division in all of baseball. Christian Walker’s go-ahead single secured Houston’s sweep over the Dbacks last week in what seems like the deciding factor for the Snakes being sellers in July. It’s such a shame to see this team — NL pennant-winners in this decade — tear down instead of stock up.

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NL Central
Hot: Bucs bounce back against Tigers
After being handedly swept by the White Sox, the Pirates decided it was time to turn the tables. Backed by quality starts from Paul Skenes and Bailey Falter, Pittsburgh swept Detroit and outscored them, 17-6. Bryan Reynolds even came alive during the series, going 6-for-13 with four RBIs and three runs. It turns out that gifting the second-worst team in the league their first sweep of the year was enough to fuel Pittsburgh’s sweep the first team to win 60 games.

Not: Cubs power bats struggle
The Cubs are in a tight race with the Brewers for the NL Central and have recently seen themselves bypassed for first place, in part because three of their biggest offensive playmakers have taken a hiatus: Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and Kyle Tucker went 6-for-56 with two runs and two RBIs. Chicago is fortunate to have other position players producing runs while their top three hitters are on hiatus, but now isn’t the time to hold the bats back.

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NL East
Hot: Phillies walk it off in abnormal, historic fashion
A wild sequence of events ended in Philadelphia’s 3-2 walk-off victory over Boston. With the bases loaded and no outs, Edmund Sosa was awarded first base when Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez committed catcher’s interference on a 2-2 count. Sosa’s advancement to first brought in ghost runner Brandon Marsh home, ending the game in a manner so bizarre it’s only been exhibited twice in baseball’s Modern Era. The Phillies aren’t the wildest team this year, but it’s safe to say this may be the craziest walkoff of 2025:

Not: Mackenzie Gore takes a tumble
The former strikeout leader this year got pummeled by San Diego in his first start back from the All-Star break, gaving up eight runs off eight hits in just 2 ⅓ innings. Although he bounced back against the Twins later in the week and his ERA is still in the green at 3.52, Gore’s trade stock dipped slightly in Washington’s blowout loss. He has one more chance to impress teams before the deadline, as the Nats will entertain trade proposals for Gore.