MMO Trade Profile: Seth Lugo, SP

Seth Lugo, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 35 (11/17/1989)

2025 Traditional Stats: 19 G (19 starts), 113 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 7-5, 99 K, 33 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 139 ERA+, 22% K%, 7.3% BB%, 4.56 xERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 1.2 fWAR, 2.8 bWAR

Contract Status: $15 million player option for 2026

Rundown

For much of his time in New York, Seth Lugo made a living as a high-leverage reliever. He struck out as many as 104 batters in a season and even got occasional reps as the team’s closer. However, after the 2022 season, Lugo set out to become a starting pitcher like he was when he first debuted. He signed a two-year deal with a player option with the Padres, and after posting a solid season over 26 starts, he opted out and inked a three-year contract with the Royals.

Since joining Kansas City, Lugo has been one of the more effective pitchers in baseball. He made his first All-Star Game in 2024, finishing second in Cy Young voting with a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts over a career-high 206 2/3 innings. In 2025, he got off to a decent start to the season, but has posted a 2.38 ERA in 53 innings since June 6. Lugo currently ranks 10th in the AL in ERA and opponents’ batting average, and ninth in WHIP.

On the surface, Lugo is keeping pace with his magnificent 2024 season. However, his underlying metrics seem to indicate he may be due for regression. He has a FIP of 4.28, an xERA of 4.56, and an xFIP of 4.06. His 22% strikeout rate is slightly higher than his 2024 mark, but his walk rate has increased from 5.7% to 7.3%, the highest it’s been since 2021. Furthermore, his 45.7% hard-hit rate and 90.5 mph average-exit velocity are the highest marks of his career. His ground-ball rate has fallen to a career-low 38.7%, while his 28.3% fly-ball rate is the second-highest of his career, only behind his 2019 season. His opponents’ .245 BABiP is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. Lugo gave up just 16 homers in 2024, but he’s already served up 17 long balls in 2025. However, 12 of those home runs have come with no one on base. Lugo has an 85.3% strand rate, and hitters are batting just .203 with one homer against him with runners in scoring position.

Part of the reason Lugo is still effective is his deep arsenal — he’s thrown 10 different pitches at least 10 times this season. His velocity is down across the board, but his sinker and slider have both shown improvement. While his sinker doesn’t generate whiffs at a high rate (only 13.8%), it has registered just a 36.5% hard-hit rate, and he’s allowed just two home runs on the pitch. His slider, which he uses less frequently, has a whiff rate of 30.2% and hitters are just 4-for-26 with two extra-base hits against it. Six of the home runs Lugo has allowed have come against his four-seam fastball, which opponents have tagged for a 50% hard-hit rate and .529 xSLG, and opponents have a hard-hit rate of 48.3% against his curveball.

While he might have sacrificed the mid-to-high 90s fastball he had in Flushing, Lugo has transformed into a workhorse. He has pitched at least six innings in 13 of his 19 starts this season, working into the seventh inning six times. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in 16 of his starts as well. In 2024, Lugo threw at least six innings 25 times, completing seven innings on 13 occasions. So far in 2025, Mets starters rank 24th in the majors in innings pitched and are averaging just over five innings per start.

Package

Despite his strong production over the last two seasons, Lugo might not cost as much as other arms on the market. He’s in his age-35 season and seems likely to decline his $15 million player option for 2026, making him a rental.

Mets Receive

• Seth Lugo

Royals Receive

• RHP Jack Wenninger (No. 11 prospect per Mike Mayer)
• OF Eli Serrano III (No. 12 prospect per Mike Mayer)

Recommendation

The Mets have just one starting pitcher–David Peterson–who has averaged six innings per start in 2025. Lugo can provide the team with a veteran arm that can go deep into games and likely won’t cost any of the team’s top prospects. This is a move the Mets should strongly consider to give the starting rotation some stability for the rest of the season.

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