No, seriously, Gabe Speier should be an All-Star

Can I get an amen from the Speier Choir?

The All-Star rosters have 12 spots for pitchers, so typically between five and seven go to relievers. Accounting for replacements and injuries and opt-outs, let’s just call it eight relievers. The proposition of this article is simple: Gabe Speier has been one of the eight best relievers in the American League.

Of the AL relievers who’ve thrown at least 25 innings, Gabe Speier has one of the eight highest strikeout rates. And Gabe Speier has one of the eight lowest walk rates. That combination is hardly an accident: he’s earning those results with one of the eight highest CSW% (the percentage of his pitches that end with a called strike or a whiff).

Of the AL pitchers who’ve faced at least 75 batters, Gabe Speier’s got one of the eight lowest expected batting averages. And he’s got one of the eight lowest expected slugging percentages.

What I’m saying here is that he’s striking guys out, not putting runners on for free, and inducing bad contact. What else, exactly, are you looking for in a pitcher? When I named my AL All-Star roster the week that voting opened, I gave a nod to Speier, and I’ll admit I was being a little cute about it. But at this point it’s clear that, for real, he’s been one of the eight best relievers in the American League. This is hardly a flash in the pan either, a small-sample fluke. Speier was one of the game’s top relievers in 2023 as well, and only had a down year last year as he pitched through injury. It’s time he got his due.

Asked about this, Mariners Pitching Coach Pete Woodworth said simply, “Name a better left-handed reliever not named Josh Hader.” The Hader qualifier is fair. Hader is the only AL reliever besides Speier who is in the top eight by K%, BB%, xBA, and xSLG. The thing is, though, Hader’s going to be an All-Star; that’s what’s supposed to happen for pitchers who do those things. Speier is in the same tier of pitcher as Hader, and MLB ought to start treating him like it. It’s not as if he’s not marketable. Check out this strikeout of All-Star Carlos Correa, which Speier celebrates with a motion I’ve taken to calling The Smug Wizard, as it evokes a pose Sirius Black might make after embarrassing someone in a duel.

I went into more detail on how Gabe Speier is putting up these spectacular numbers in a different article, about a month ago. Little has changed. But the short version is that he constantly gets himself ahead in the count, with one of the eight highest first-pitch-strike rates, and by getting hitters to swing at unhittable pitches, with one of the eight highest chase rates. Here, for instance, is what happened when Speier was brought in to face All-Star Jackson Merrill with the bases loaded: Speier gets one of the game’s better contact hitters to swing at a pitch near his chin.

And it’s not as though Speier is getting away with this by facing weak hitters in garbage time. He’s pitching when it matters, entering the game with an average leverage index of 1.35, which is well above-average. As the only lefty in Seattle’s pen for most of the season, he’s been used as a set-up man who is usually called in to face the opposing lineup’s toughest lefty pocket, which on many teams means the toughest pocket, period. He’s the guy who gets the double-whammy of All-Star Kyle Tucker and All-Star Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s the guy who’s brought in when the game is close late and All-Star Yordan Álvarez is up. The man has faced off with All-Star Corey Seager five times this year. (Seager is 0 for 4 with a HBP.) Enjoy a clip of him striking out All-Star Rafael Devers:

But don’t confuse Speier for a lefty specialist. More than half of the batters he’s faced have hit from the right side. Thanks to a new approach against righties, he’s been dominating them as well. He’s striking out 35.7% of the northpaws he faces, while walking just 8.6% of them. That works out to a K% - BB% of 27.1%, which is where Speier finally falls out of the top eight among AL relievers . . . all the way to 11th.

Sure, part of the All-Star Game is about celebrating the game’s, well, stars. And some in and around the game continue to be fixated on saves, which Speier doesn’t rack up. But the All-Star game is also one of the ways that great players become stars. And Speier is primed for such a moment. Listen to Royals’ broadcaster Ryan Lefebvre process in real time just how good Speier has been. (Speier would go on to retire all four batters he faced, with three strikeouts.) Consider that maybe he should be an All-Star so people stop being so surprised by this.

Gabe Speier has indeed had a very nice year. Whether you’re looking at results or the underlying metrics backing them up, he’s been one of the game’s absolute best pitchers. He deserves a spot in the All-Star Game.