About Last Night: A Julio outfield clip show

So it’s come to this

Julio Rodríguez had a busy night in the outfield.

Julio is an elite center fielder, which makes him valuable. His essential skill, beyond being very fast, is his route-running. He seems to know exactly where the ball will land and gets to that spot faster than most. Baseball Savant’s metrics love him. He entered Tuesday’s game with 9 Outs Above Average — tied for fifth among center fielders. He exited, however, a touch lower with 8 OAA. Julio got three challenging plays in the fifth inning that tested his route-running and served as a useful illustration of catch probability.

The first play was double to the left-center gap by Vinnie Pasquantino, an oppo-slicing drive at 99 mph with a 23-degree launch angle. Julio closed on the ball quickly and attempted a sliding, backhanded catch. It bounced off the ground, then off his glove, and careened away. It’s not clear how much ground Julio covered to reach the ball, as the play was ultimately credited to Randy Arozarena. (I’m not sure why it’s considered Arozarena’s ball, or if that’s something Savant will change later.) The ball hung in the air 4.9 seconds and landed 93.7 feet from where Arozarena started, making it a five-star play. I assume it would be rated similarly difficult for Julio, who has one five-star catch this year. It’s the kind of play only an elite outfielder can miss.

Two batters later, Salvador Perez hit a 104 mph, 31-degree barrel to the right-center gap. Julio ranged back and climbed the fence, only for the ball to bounce off the wall a few feet away. There isn’t much to say other than it was a bad play on a tough play. Perhaps he lost it in the sun. Savant gave it a 99% catch probability — similar to a can of corn. It probably wasn’t a can of corn, as the wall makes it trickier. I highly recommend this post from Tom Tango if you’re interested in how the wall impacts modeled catch probability.

This play also shows why center field defense is so valuable. There were two runners on base, a catch would have prevented a run, and the ball wound up far away from everyone. Two runners scored, and another wound up in scoring position. Julio makes this play almost every single time. That’s what he does for the Mariners. That’s why he’s valuable.

Doink.

On the next batter, Jac Caglianone ripped a 96 mph, 14-degree sinking liner up the middle. Julio covered 40.4 feet in 3.4 seconds to get there with a sliding flourish, making it a two-star play (85% catch probability). He has by far the most two-star opportunities this year and is a perfect 27-for-27 on those plays.

Julio had eight opportunities in total Tuesday (nine if you count Pasquantino’s double). He made a few other routine and semi-difficult catches. One play he did not make was Bobby Witt Jr.’s double in the ninth. Witt Jr. hit it 111 mph with a 21-degree launch angle. The ball hung in the air for 5.1 seconds and clanged off the wall 94.4 feet from where Julio started. Julio tracked it about halfway, then turned and watched it hit the wall before scooping it up and firing it back in. I don’t have any thoughts on the play other than that it’s another good example of a three-star wall ball.