Series Preview: Mets Will Avoid Skenes in Pirates Matchup

The New York Mets (48-34) appear to be pushing past their worst stretch of the season. Consecutive losses against the Atlanta Braves on Monday and Tuesday had them in a 1-10 rut. It felt like everything that could go wrong was going wrong. But they were able to stop the bleeding, winning the final two games of their series with Atlanta. The Mets have once again regained their place at the top of the National League East, thanks to the Houston Astros sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies.

Next up for the Mets is the Pittsburgh Pirates (32-50), who are scoring 3.26 runs per game. Second-worst mark in baseball. Despite having a few impressive arms, notably Paul Skenes, the Pirates are really struggling as a team. Let’s take a look at some ahead of the three pitching matchups for this weekend.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: David Peterson (5-3, 2.98 ERA) vs. Mitch Keller (1-10, 4.02 ERA): Peterson has been one of the shining stars in the Mets’ rotation. But for the first time this season, he will be looking to bounce back. Peterson gave up a season-high five runs in four innings against the Phillies last Sunday. He has pitched to a 3.31 ERA in four career appearances against the Pirates. Keller’s 10 losses are tied for the worst mark in baseball. A major factor in that is a lack of run support. The Pirates are averaging 2.18 runs per game when Keller starts. Their offense has scored two runs or fewer in 11 of his 16 starts. Keller is 0-7 with a 4.58 ERA in 10 starts at home this season. He has pitched well against the Mets, owning a 2.12 ERA over five career outings.
• Saturday: Paul Blackburn (0-2, 6.62 ERA) vs. Bailey Falter (6-3, 3.59 ERA): Blackburn threw five shutout innings in his season debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 2. In his four appearances since, two of which have come as a starter, he is 0-2 with a 9.24 ERA. With Sean Manaea‘s return on the horizon, Blackburn’s spot in the rotation could change. A quality start could alter the conversation. Falter has quietly been a big contributor for the Pirates. Since the start of May, he is 5-0 with a 2.29 ERA across 55 innings. Falter is enjoying the best season yet, despite having a career high in walks per nine (3.3) and a career low in strikeouts per nine (5.4). He is 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA in nine home starts this season.
• Sunday: Frankie Montas (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Mike Burrows (1-2, 4.45 ERA): Montas struggled on his rehab assignment. In 6 starts, he was 0-3 with a 12.05 ERA. He gave up eight home runs in 18 2/3 innings. It was not good. Well, apparently, those numbers can be thrown out the window. Montas threw five shutout innings in his season debut against the Braves on Tuesday. He was able to work around three walks, striking out five that night. Burrows has been a part of the Pirates’ rotation since the end of May. His last appearance did come out of the bullpen, though, throwing 2 1/3 innings of relief against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. He was efficient in that outing, throwing just 31 pitches. It will be interesting to see how many innings he will give the Pirates on Sunday.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

Mark Vientos is back with the big league ball club after suffering a hamstring strain at the beginning of this month. His presence in the lineup will be welcomed, especially for a Mets team that has received inconsistent production from the bottom of their order. To the surprise of some, both Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio have remained on the roster ahead of Jared Young, who is heading back to Syracuse. The expectation was that Mauricio would go back to Triple-A to get everyday at-bats. For now, that is not the case. In the four-game series against the Braves, Mauricio went 5-for-15 with a double, a home run and two runs batted in. Will Baty be the everyday third baseman? Will Vientos be the everyday designated hitter? How often will Mauricio play? All things to keep an eye on.

PREDICTION

The Pirates struggle to score. That has been an issue for several years. If the Mets can limit the walks and command the zone, a series victory should be the expectation. With Skenes not throwing this weekend, a sweep is certainly within reach. I like what I saw from the Mets over the last two games. The offense ticked up, pitching was much better, and the defense was solid all around. A game will be tight, but the Mets are going to take all three in Pittsburgh.

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