What could Seth Lugo return in a trade?

Looking at previous returns for starters at the trade deadline can give us an idea of what to expect if the Royals decide to move Seth Lugo

The Kansas City Royals are in an interesting position heading into the trade deadline. They have lost five games in a row, including a discouraging sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. As of right now, they would need to pass six teams to capture the third Wild Card Spot. Yet they remain in the mix despite their sub-.500 record; they are only 3.5 games back.

Royals general manager J.J. Piccollo and his team have some challenging decisions to make. Do you look at this pitching staff and think they can do damage in the playoffs if they can just get in and try to upgrade the lineup? Do they look at their win-loss record, run differential, and the amount of teams they are competing with and decide to sell? Or do they try to chart a middle path like we have seen previous MLB teams do, trading veterans at the last year of their deals while not completely abandoning hope for a 2024 Detroit Tigers style end of season run?

Unless the Royals decide they are outright buyers, and at this point I think they would need to go on one of their famous win 15 out of 20 runs to make that decision, they are likely going to receive quite a few calls about pitcher Seth Lugo. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked Lugo as the 6th best player that could realistically be available during the MLB trade deadline, and a quick Google search reveals lots of other baseball team blogs discussing Lugo and if he would be a good fit on their roster.

The Royals starter would be a great acquisition for most teams, particularly those that aren’t confident in their top three starters. Lugo is following up his AL Cy Young runner-up campaign with another strong season, posting a 2.93 ERA over 83 innings. He has similar strikeout and walk numbers as he did last year, but his xERA of 4.69 could scare some teams off. He pitched ahead of his advanced metrics last season and continues to do so this year, and his ability to throw so many different pitches and locate them well does suggest that he can maintain his ability to induce weak contact better than your standard pitcher.

Lugo is also on an affordable deal. He is due the remainder of his $15 million that he is owed for this season, and has a player option for $15 million for next year. At this point, he seems unlikely to pick up that player option; he should be able to command a better contract than one year, $15 million on the open market. So Lugo is most likely going to be a rental player if the Royals decide to move on from him.

I decided to look at previous trade deadlines to look at other rental pitchers to see what the Royals could reasonably expect in return for Lugo. I went back to the 2022 deadline and looked for pitchers in the last year of their contracts who were traded, and looked to see what kind of players they were traded for in return. I used Fangraphs Future Value rating as a way to compare the quality of players who were sent back for the renal pitchers. I also included trades that had a starter and a reliever in the deal, since the Royals would be able to package a reliever if they so choose to try to get a better return. Below is the comparison trades that I saw.

If you’re curious about some Future Value comparisons for Royals prospects, Carter Jensen and Noah Cameron have a 50 FV rating, Ben Kudrna has a 45, Blake Wolters has a 40 and Frank Mazzicato has a 35. I think Lugo would be as highly valued as Flaherty and Kikuchi were last season; you could argue that he is the best pitcher out of all the rental pitchers that have been traded in the last few years. So it would be reasonable to expect the Royals to land one prospect with a 50 FV rating and one with a 45 FV rating for Lugo.

Given the state of the Royals farm system and the fact that they are graduating Cameron and Jac Caglianone, a 50 FV prospect would likely be among the top 3 Royals prospects, and a 45 FV prospect would be among the top 10. That’s a pretty solid return, and Piccolo has done well in trades so far, so I would trust his and his team’s ability to find the right prospects to trade for.

Passan and McDaniel lists the Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres as potential options for Lugo. So if you want to do some prospect deep drives and dreaming, here’s some players who could be included from these teams if we go with one player at 50 FV and one player at 45 Future Value:

Chicago Cubs - Kevin Alcantara/Cade Horton, Owen Caissie
Toronto Blue Jays - Alan Roden/Ricky Tiedemann, Kendry Rojas
San Diego Padres - Leo De Vries, Kash Mayfield

While the Royals still have more time to make a decision, I’m personally on Team Sell at the deadline right now. Six teams is too many to pass, and the negative run differential and consistent lack of offense doesn’t give me confidence that this is going to turn around. The Rays found themselves in a similar position last year, chose to trade players away, and are now currently in the first Wild Card Spot and a ¹⁄₂ game back of the New York Yankees for the division. The Royals don’t need to burn it down, but unloading veterans and guys towards the end of their deals could help them compete again next year, and moving Lugo is a no-brainer if the Royals decide to move that direction.