Dodgers series preview: Ohtani takes the mound
The Japanese phenom is scheduled to pitch this weekend.
For a team reeling with nine consecutvie losses at home, the Dodgers are probably the last team you want to see on the schedule. The franchise has become the bullies in baseball, combining lavish spending with a smart front office to produce 100-win seasons in five of the last seven full years, including two four pennants and two titles. Not only that, but the Dodgers are playing some of their best baseball of the year, winning 10 of their last 12 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (51-31) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-43) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Dodgers: 5.63 runs scored/game (1st in MLB), 4.55 runs allowed/game (22nd)
Royals: 3.25 runs scored/game (30th), 3.64 runs allowed/game (3rd)
The Dodgers have scored the most runs in baseball and are on pace to score 913, which would be a club record in their long history. They lead the league in home runs and have the third-highest walk rate.
They are led by superstar Shohei Ohtani, who is currently third in baseball in fWAR at 4.1. Homegrown Will Smith and Andy Pages are also among the top ten in fWAR, with Smith fourth in wRC+. The second-year Pages has been on a tear lately, hitting .333/.337/.611 with six home runs in 24 games. Teoscar Hernandez has terrorized lefties, hitting .396/.407/.774 against them.
Max Muncy has a 53 percent pull rate, sixth-highest in baseball. Enrique Hernández is hitting just 3-for-34 (.088) over his last 20 games. Tommy Edman is hitting just .225/.257/.392 on the road. Freddie Freeman has faced Seth Lugo 19 times, hitting .313/.421/.375 against him.
The Dodgers have stolen just 44 bases this year with Ohtani as their biggest speed threat. They are a good defensive team according to Defensive Runs Saved, but below average according to Outs Above Average. Shortstop Mookie Betts and Pages in the outfield rate very well in both metrics with Michael Conforto struggling not only at the plate but in the field.
The Dodgers have suffered a ton of injuries - only two teams have had more players on the Injured List this year. Among the starting pitchers currently out are Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Roki Sasaki, Gavin Stonee, and Blake Snell. Dustin May has made a career-high 14 starts this year after battling numerous injuries and missing all of last season. He has been much worse on the road with a 5.94 ERA in six starts and opponents hitting .267/.345./458. He relies primarily on a sweeper that he throws 41 percent of the time, plus a sinker that opponents are hitting .287 off of, occasionally throwing an effective 95 mph fastball.
Shohei Ohtani will make just his third “start” of the year, although he has yet to pitch the second inning, and will likely go no more than two innings against the Royals as he works back from off-season elbow surgery. Ohtani did not pitch all of last year, but had a 3.14 ERA in 132 innings with 167 strikeouts in 2023. Ohtani’s velocity is actually up since then, with a fastball clocking in at 98 mph in his short stints. He has given up just one run in three starts against the Royals (19 innings) but has never faced them at Kauffman Stadium.
The Dodgers have not announced a starter for Sunday, but it is likely to be rookie Justin Wrobleski. He struck out a season-high seven batters against the Rockies in his last outing, giving up just two runs in five innings. He throws a 95 mph heater, but opponents are hitting .313 against it.
The Dodgers bullpen has been below average with a 4.04 ERA. Dodgers relievers have allowed just 24 percent of inherited runners to score, third-lowest in baseball. Tanner Scott has 17 saves, but has five blown saves as well. He has been better this month, going perfect in save opportunities with a 1.46 ERA. Lefties are hitting just .156/.208/.267 against Alex Vesia. Kirby Yates is fifth among relievers in strikeouts-per-nine innings.
The Royals need to turn their season around quickly, but the Dodgers present a huge challenge. Royals hitters will need to keep up with the best offense in the league. It doesn’t seem likely the Royals will be able to end their long home winning streak, but baseball can be kind of funny sometimes, and desperate teams can surprise you.