Pitching Regression Hitting Mets Hard Right Now

It seems as though in the last week, the bricks have crumbled within the Mets’ pitching depth.

When your expected top two starters are on the injured list, and some of the pitchers who have filled in nicely start to regress, it’s an ugly combination. And it’s been a major factor in the Mets’ now-seven-game losing streak, one that has dropped them into second place in the National League East.

Those issues were exacerbated in a 10-2 loss to the Phillies on Friday. Home runs from Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil almost provided some heroics, but the Mets allowed eight runs over the final two innings to make it a laugher.

This was despite Blade Tidwell having an improved second start in the big leagues, and José Buttó giving the Mets two strong innings. They used Reed Garrett — who’s been an anchor in this bullpen — in a tie game in the seventh, and his outing was disastrous. He faced four batters. All four of them scored.

He did not record an out.

For the Mets, it’s been one stone falling after another. Just a day prior, it was Huascar Brazobán getting roughed up for four runs in 2/3 of an inning. His outing followed a shaky start from the usually-reliable Clay Holmes.

So what’s going on?

The Mets are in a non-ideal position to start with. It’s easy to forget that the pitching situation had plenty of question marks entering the season, and last year’s rock of the rotation, Sean Manaea, went down before they even got rolling. Their ace for 2023 and the start of this season, Kodai Senga, recently joined the injured list. Frankie Montas and Tylor Megill‘s absences weaken the depth even more (though Montas is expected back shortly).

That just leaves it for the rest of the guys, who have held this pitching staff afloat, to keep doing what they’re doing. And there lies the resulting issue: They haven’t been able to maintain an unsustainable pace.

While the Mets’ pitching has been a marvel at times this year, it was likely never going to continue to hold the best team ERA in baseball, especially with more injuries piling on top of each other. After Friday’s disaster, their team ERA is 3.15 — still the best in baseball, but by only .03, with the Texas Rangers knocking on the door. And things are only trending downward for the Mets.

Garrett had a 1.23 ERA entering Friday. He’d been tremendous — but he regressed last year, too, and surely he wasn’t going to stay elite forever. His FIP entering Friday was 2.75, and his xFIP even higher at 3.55. Last season, his ERA settled in at 3.77 after the ups and downs. Before that, he’d been in the 6-plus range.

Brazobán was probably an even more extreme regression candidate. His ERA is now 2.50 to go along with a 4.07 FIP. The 35-year-old had similar FIP numbers last year, and his ERA settled in at 3.83.

Max Kranick is another reliever who’s regressed, as discussed last week. In the rotation, Holmes and Canning have had some subpar outings lately. Holmes had never been a starter at the major league level before, and Canning had an ERA over 5.00 in two of the prior three seasons. For much of the season, the reaction to these pitchers’ performances has been along the lines of, “Wow, he’s been surprisingly good. Is he going to keep it up?”

It turns out, maybe not.

Of course, some guys still haven’t budged. David Peterson has somewhat quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball despite an xFIP nearly a run higher than his ERA. Buttó, after striking out three in two hitless innings on Friday, has a 2.75 ERA (though, again, with an xFIP more than a run higher).

The Mets are simply experiencing the consequences of multiple forces converging — the diminishing depth due to injuries, and the natural regression expected from some of these good but not elite pitchers. It’s not to excuse or deny the reality of what’s happening to the Mets right now — a seven-game plummet — but only to further emphasize the factors at play amidst a mound of frustration.

The good news is that it won’t last forever. The Mets still have a pretty solid — if thin — staff on paper right now, and pitchers like Garrett and Brazobán should settle in to their stats like they did last year. And reinforcements are on the way. Manaea and Montas are on the brink of return. Senga’s injury isn’t expected to keep him out terribly long. It won’t be this parched for very long — and that’s before even bringing up the topic of the trade deadline, where the Mets would be well-inclined to be in the market for some bullpen help.

So, for now, the Mets are going to have to keep trying to patch things together with what they have. They still, as a reminder, have the best team ERA in baseball. Saturday should be a good bounceback opportunity for Canning, and Peterson is set to pitch the series finale Sunday. By the end of the weekend, the Mets could snatch the division lead right back — it’ll just take a little bit of settling in.

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