J.P. Crawford is the best version of himself

J.P. Crawford has been a more sustainable version of his 2023 self

Last night, J.P. Crawford had two singles in his first three at-bats, and would have had three in three if not for Daniel Schneeman visiting the Acme Co pregame for a pair of rocket booster cleats. That is not, in and of itself, unusual. With 50+ singles already this season, Crawford is in the top 25 in baseball in singles, up among contact merchants like José Altuve and Alejandro Kirk. What is unusual is two of those three singles went into left field, which is unusual for J.P.’s overall profile as a lefty hitter but not unusual this year, when he’s running a 36% oppo rate, the highest of any full season of his career.

The Mariners have talked a lot this season about taking the up-the-middle approach, allowing the ball to travel to all fields based on where it’s pitched. It’s a version of what Hall-of-Famer Edgar Martinez has described as his approach to hitting: balls pitched on the inner part of the plate are pulled, balls on the outer part of the plate go into the opposite field, and balls in the heart of the plate are hit back up the middle, ideally for power. It’s an idea that’s much more simple in theory than it is in practice, which is why Edgar is in the Hall of Fame, where he belongs. But J.P. Crawford did a pretty good Edgar impression with his hits last night:

Crawford’s first hit was the single to left field on the furthest edge of the plate. He doesn’t make great contact with the ball—just a 92 EV—but that .440 xBA is somewhat deceptive because the Guardians were clearly playing Crawford to pull; third baseman José Ramírez had zero shot at making a play on this hit.

It’s understandable why teams have been trying to pitch Crawford outside and also play him to pull; last season, J.P. was pretty miserable on the outer edge of the plate.

But that hasn’t been the case this season:

In addition to improvements on batted balls, Crawford has also warmed up some of those ice-blue areas by improving his plate discipline. He’s shifted four percentage points from his 2024 strikeout rate over to his walk rate, putting him in line with his 2023 season, when he was nearly a five-win player.

At roughly two wins already, Crawford is on pace to match his best season as a pro; he currently has a wRC+ of 138, almost exactly where he ended 2023. However, the way he’s going about it is different than his 2023, when he hit 19 home runs - more than in his three previous seasons combined. He’s sacrificed some of that power, and with it some of the OBP, but boosted his average by about 20 points. He’s still using his elite eye at the plate to force pitchers to put it in the zone, walking slightly more and striking out slightly less than in 2023, but he’s also finding singles up the middle and, importantly, into left field, dividing his hits almost exactly into thirds and spraying them around the field. He’s dropped his pull percentage from 43% in 2023 and 32% in 2024 to just 30%, and increased his line drive percentage to a career-high 29%, transforming some of those homers into line drives—but many more of those flyouts, as well. Pitchers are continuing to work him on the outside edge, but Crawford is responding by hitting to the opposite field more than ever, and taking what pitchers give him - a true pupil of his hitting coaches Edgar Martinez and Kevin Seitzer.

“Whether he’s pulling it or hitting the ball the other way, he’s hitting it hard. He’s hitting it on the barrel. You can’t say enough about what his approach has been here offensively, and add that on to what he does defensively for us,” said manager Dan Wilson.

In Crawford’s second at-bat, you can see the catcher again set up on the outside, but the pitch is a cutter, breaking back to land in the middle of the plate, ideally for a called strike three. Instead, J.P. recognizes the pitch and puts a good swing on it, pulling the ball for what should have been a hit if not for a perfectly-timed jump by Schneeman.

In his third at-bat, Guardians starter Gavin Williams again tries to give Crawford a four-seamer on the outer edge of the zone, and J.P. comes up with a mirror image of his first hit, albeit hit a little more authoritatively as the pitch was a little more on the plate. This one went for a game-tying RBI single.

Crawford did come up with another opposite-field hit in his fourth at-bat, again taking a sinker slightly outside the heart of the plate—but still well on the plate—and shooting it into left field.

This time, instead of merely dumping it over the shortstop’s head, he drove it into the corner for a double. If Crawford can turn some of those singles into doubles, he’ll blast past his 2023 numbers. But even if he doesn’t, if he maintains his ability to hit line drives rather than popping up the ball, continues to hit to all fields, and keeps up this level of plate discipline, he’s on pace to be one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball. J.P. Crawford, Power Hitter, was fun; J.P. Crawford, Consistent Hitter, is a more sustainable path forward.