Brett Baty Continues Power Surge Against Dodgers

It was a long, wacky game for the Mets into the late hours of the night on Friday. Fighting through a rain delay, a pair of unconventional rulings on the field, and four extra innings, the offense was sluggish through most of the night before an explosive rally in the ninth inning — then an eventual stall in extras.

But almost lost in the madness was Brett Baty, who continued a recent trend of sudden increased power.

Baty had slowed down lately, with three hitless games in a row from May 18-20. But after a 2-for-4, three-RBI performance on Wednesday, he got back in the home run column with a blast on Friday. It was another 2-for-4 day, which included a single that kept the Mets’ ninth-inning rally alive.

He drove an 89.6 mph cutter in the middle of the zone from right-hander Matt Sauer. It went a relatively modest 385 feet, with an exit velocity of 98.7 mph, but it was still a home run nonetheless. It would have been a homer in 20 out of the 30 ballparks, per Baseball Savant. Since coming back up from Triple-A Syracuse, Baty has shown improvement in simply lifting the ball more often. The change has reaped rapidly more rewarding results.

As Mike Mayer noted, it was Baty’s sixth homer out of his last 11 hits. The power surge has been something noticeable and remarkable for Baty, who now owns a .473 slugging percentage, fueled by a .247 ISO. Baty doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify, but if he did, that mark would rank in the top 20 in all of MLB.

In the major leagues, Baty has never posted an ISO above .158 in a season before. He wasn’t even over .100 last year. For reference, his career ISO in 427 Triple-A plate appearances is .257 — similar to where Baty’s current MLB mark sits. Obviously, the major league level is tougher on hitters, but it does suggest that maybe some of this breakout is legitimate.

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Entering the day, Baty’s xwOBA was a little higher than his actual wOBA — .324 to .297 — and his xBA of .256 was a solid bit higher than his actual average of .222. His xSLG, .481, supports the increased numbers mentioned earlier.

Despite all of the encouraging signs on the power side, Baty’s on-base numbers still leave a lot to be desired. Even with four hits in his last two games, his average is only .234. It’s even more concerning that his walks have plummeted this year. He walked in the 11th inning of Friday’s game, but it was only his fourth of the season. His OBP sits at only .265. His swing rates aren’t terribly different from past years, though he is seeing about 2% more pitches in the zone and chasing about 2% more of the time.

Nonetheless, this is what the Mets had to have been hoping to see out of Baty when they brought him back from Syracuse for another chance. It was starting to feel like the clock was ticking a little on Baty, who was yet to really take advantage of his small handful of MLB chances. To call it a full breakout right now would be a stretch, but he’s on the right track. He’s already three away from tying his career-high MLB home run mark of nine, which came in nearly four times as many at-bats.

Offense has been a mixed bag for the Mets, but they’re getting some much-needed sparks out of their young infielder.

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