Every bat the Royals were interested in this off-season has stunk so far
Upgrading the lineup is hard.
The Royals have had some early success, but it has come in spite of, and not because of the offense. Only three teams are averaging fewer than the 3.40 runs-per-game the Royals lineup is producing. As a team they are hitting .242/.300/.359, and their wRC+ of 83 is fourth-worst in baseball. It is a testament to how dominant the pitching has been that the team has the ninth-best record in baseball despite having one of the worst offenses in the game.
This problem isn’t new either - the team suffered offensive woes last September when Vinnie Pasquantino was knocked out of the lineup with an injury. The outfield in particular has been a weak spot offensively, ranking with the third-worst collective wRC+ in baseball last year.
The front office certainly tried to upgrade the offense this past off-season. They acquired Jonathan India from the Reds to set the table at the top of the lineup, but he has stumbled out of the gate with a line of .224/.325/.301. The Royals made other attempts to acquire a bat, if reports are to be believed, but none of those players have hit well enough to have made a difference. Let’s review some of the players the Royals were rumored to be interested in.
Brett Baty made sense as a trade target because the Mets had Mark Vientos energy at third. Baty was intriguing because he had so many controllable years left and was young enough to have upside. The 25-year-old third baseman had not really taken a step forward in his first three seasons with the Mets, and after a slow start in April, they demoted him to Triple-A after he hit just .204/.246/.352, He returned last week and went 4-for-8 with three home runs in the series against the Cubs this week. Perhaps this is the springboard he needs for his career, although the Mets may not have room for him in their lineup.
Alec Bohm is a player the Phillies seemed to have fallen out of favor with as they looked to shake up their lineup. He had a second-half swoon last year that caused concern that seems to have carried over into this year. The 2024 Home Run Derby participant hit just four home runs in the second half last year, and hit his first and only home run of this season so far on Tuesday. He is hitting .248/.290/.317 with the tenth-lowest walk rate in baseball, and has dropped to eighth in the Phillies lineup. He has a track record of success and could bounce back, but the trend since last year is troubling. It would have taken a lot to land Bohm, but considering the emergence of Maikel Garcia, it is perhaps best the Royals didn’t acquire the former Wichita State Shocker.
Starling Marte bounced back from a dreadful 2023 with a decent season in 2024, and with a crowded outfield, the Mets looked to deal him. There was a rumor the Mets wanted Hunter Harvey or Angel Zerpa for Marte last off-season and were willing to cover some of the $19.8 million owed Marte this season. A deal never came to fruition and Marte has been limited to mostly DH duties in New York. But he has forgotten the “hitter” in “designated hitter”, with a line of just .197/.308/.318. Marte has played just four games in the field this year and with many of his offensive metrics trending downward, this is probably the twilight of his career.
Jurickson Profar was one of the worst players in baseball in 2023 - Hunter Dozier-level-bad with a fWAR of -1.6, worst in baseball. Then last year with the Padres he was like a mini-Juan Soto, hitting .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs. The Royals pursued him, but were unwilling to match the three-year, $42 million deal the Braves offered. So how did Profar turn his career around? By using a banned substance. He will be out 80 games serving a suspension, and we don’t know how he will hit without Chorionic Gonadotropin. It is quite likely the Royals dodged a bullet with their restraint.
Anthony Santander was another big bat the Royals pursued when it seemed like the market had dried up for him. Reportedly the Royals offered three years and $66 million for the slugger. But the Toronto Blue Jays swooped in and landed him with a five-year, $92.5 million deal with deferrals. He may not have been a great fit for Kauffman Stadium anyway - just 27 of his 44 home runs would be out at the K, and his suspect defense would be a liability in the spacious outfield. But he’s not even hitting in Toronto, where his line of .196/.275/.336 is good for just a 76 wRC+ - numbers quite similar to the struggling Vinnie Pasquantino. Hopefully the Royals produce their own power-hitting corner outfielder in Jac Caglianone.
Taylor Ward was targeted by the Royals at last year’s trade deadline, with the Angels reportedly asking for a high price. The Royals checked in on him again last winter, but the Angels are going in a weird direction, collecting veterans for a team that is seemingly going nowhere. Ward has hit for power this year - his eight home runs are more than anyone the Royals have in their lineup. But he is currently mired in an awful 6-for-50 (.120) slump that has him hitting under the Mendoza Line. His wRC+ of 64 is 16th-worst among qualified hitters as his walk rate has plummeted and his strikeout rate has increased. His BABIP is .190, so perhaps his asking price has fallen enough that the Royals could buy a dip here.
What about some other free agents? Here’s a list of free agent hitters from this past off-season that the Royals could have realistically signed (no Juan Soto, Willy Adames, or Alex Bregman). Even a few of these probably weren’t realistic targets - it likely takes a major overpay to lure Teoscar Hernández from the Dodgers and Pete Alonso settled for a deal with the Mets when no one touched his high asking price.
If you look at the chart, there were some lower-priced free agents that have gotten off to a hot start so far. It is still early and many dormant hitters will eventually heat up. But picking free agents and making the right trade is hard. Upgrading the lineup is not quite as easy as it looks.