Astros series preview: Can the Royals hit in Houston?

Can the Royals adjust to playing in a smaller ballpark?

It seems as if I have been predicting the Astros’ demise in series previews several times in the past year. And while the franchise does seem to be transitioning to a new era, they are still competitive, just two games back of first in what seems like a very competitive Western Division.

The Astros offense was struggling when the Royals took two out of three from them at Kauffman back in April. The Royals shut them out twice, but the Houston offense has gotten hot lately, scoring 6+ runs in four of their last eight games. The Astros have been a better team at home this year, going 13-8 and took two of three from the Reds on this homestand.

Kansas City Royals (24-18) vs. Houston Astros (20-19) at Daikin Park, Houston, TX

Royals: 3.40 runs scored/game (27th in MLB), 3.26 runs allowed/game (2nd)

Astros: 4.18 runs scored/game (17th), 3.64 runs allowed/game (7th)

Despite playing in a home run park, only five teams have hit fewer home runs than the Astros. Houston is averaging 4.57 runs-per-game at home compared to 3.72 on the road. They are without slugger Yordan Alvarez, who was off to a slow start and suffered a hand injury.

Former Cornhusker Jake Meyers has been on a tear, hitting .378/.477/.622 with two home runs over his last 11 games. Isaac Paredes is hitting .274/.411/.521 at home this year. Jose Altuve suffered a hamstring injury over the weekend and is day-to-day. He has a 55 percent groundball rate, seventh-highest in baseball.

Free agent Christian Walker has gotten off to a slow start, but is hitting .298/.358/.468 in his last 12 games and has been a much better hitter at home. Jeremy Peña is fifth overall in fWAR among shortstops. Cam Smith was at Florida State just a year ago, but is in the big leagues after just 32 games in the minors.

Only five teams have stolen fewer bases than the Astros. They have been picked off just twice this year. Defensively they have been average, with Smith taking very well to a move to right field. Catcher Yainer Diaz has caught just 4 of 31 would-be basestealers (12.9 percent).

Royals starter and Texarkana native Michael Wacha has only made one career start in Houston, tossing five no-hit shutout innings back in 2021 with the Rays. He will face Astros rookie Ryan Gusto, who has shuttled between the rotation and bullpen this year and will fill in for the injured Hayden Wesnewski. he has failed to reach six innings in any of his four starts, but has yet to give up more than three runs. Gusto has pitched just once this month, a relief appearance over a week ago. He throws a 93 mph fastball more than half the time, with a sweeper, curve, cutter, and change.

Framber Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons, earning some Cy Young votes last year after posting 15 wins and a 2.91 ERA. He gave up just two runs in eight innings in a loss to the Royals back in April. He has a 3.68 ERA in 44 innings against the Royals, with Salvador Perez going just 1-for-10 against him with a home run. Valdez has a 53 percent groundball rate, eighth-highest in baseball. The lefty throws a sinker half the time, and gets a 39 percent whiff rate on his curve.

Colton Gordon is expected to be called up to make his MLB debut in a start on Wednesday. The left-hander was an 8th-round pick out of Central Florida in 2021 and had a 3.94 ERA in 25 games at Triple-A last year before posting a 2.55 ERA in eight starts this year. The 26-year-old was ranked as the #14 Astros prospect by MLB Pipeline. They write that although he has below-average velocity, he has “deceptive mechanics that produce high spin rates and tremendous carry.”

The Astros bullpen has been terrific so far with a 2.93 ERA, third-lowest in baseball, and the lowest FIP at 3.06. They have the second-highest strikeout rate, with closer Josh Hader posting the seventh-highest strikeout rate among relievers. He has converted all nine save opportunities and has not allowed a run in 13 of his 15 outings. Lefty Steven Okert has a 65 percent flyball rate, second-highest in baseball. Bryan Abreu and Bryan King are both in the top three in highest line-drive rate allowed. King has a reverse split with lefties hitting better against him (.218/.307/.291) than righties (.168/.246/.248) in his career.

The Royals were swept in a four-game series in Houston last year, scoring just nine runs, so this has been a difficult place for them to play. Perhaps like Yankee Stadium, moving to a much smaller ballpark is too much of an adjustment to make. It doesn’t help that the Astros usually have a pretty talented team. But they are without Alvarez and some of the other past stars that have carried this franchise to a decade of sustained success, giving the Royals an opportunity for a road series win.