Red Sox series preview: New look lineup for Boston

The Red Sox will try to get back to the playoffs with some new faces in the lineup.

The Red Sox have missed the playoffs in five of the six seasons since they won it all in 2018. They seem to be transitioning again, with veteran Alex Bregman, rookie Kristian Campbell, and pitcher Garrett Crochet now the faces of the franchise. The team has been a very mediocre team around .500 the last three seasons, but they are hoping a new look can provide a new outlook.

Boston Red Sox (20-19) vs. Kansas City Royals (23-16) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Red Sox: 4.90 runs scored/game (7th in MLB), 4.41 runs allowed/game (19th)

Royals: 3.56 runs scored/game (26th), 3.15 runs allowed/game (1st)

The Red Sox are near league-average in most offensive categories. They have hit the ninth-most home runs, and have actually hit more home runs away from Fenway Park with 25 dingers in 19 road games, although their overall road numbers are worse than at home. As a team, they are tied for the highest hard-hit rate in baseball.

Alex Bregman was the big free agent signing this off-season and he has been sensational with the tenth-most fWAR in baseball right now. Second baseman Kristian Campbell is second among all rookies in fWAR and wRC+ behind only Jacob Wilson of the Athletics.

The team lost first baseman Tristan Casas for the year with a knee injury, and are looking for a solution at first base. That won’t be Rafael Devers, who rejected a move to first and is still sore about being moved off third base for Bregman. After a slow start, he is starting to hit, batting .383/.482/.723 with four home runs in his last 12 games.

Trevor Story is finally healthy, but he’s not the hitter he once was. He is just 7-for-his-last-57 (.123) and overall he is striking out nearly 30 percent of the time. Wilyer Abreu has a flyball rate of 58 percent, most in baseball.

Unlike a lot of past Boston teams, this Red Sox team can run. Only two teams have more stolen bases than the Red Sox and they have the top success rate at 87 percent. The team is second in baseball in Baserunning Runs, with Jarren Duran and Ceddane Rafaela are both among the top eleven players in baseball. They are an average defensive team, although Rafaela has been exemplary in center.

Rookie Hunter Robbins has held his own in his first three MLB outings, although the team has scored 31 combined runs in his starts. The former Texas Tech pitcher had a 3.08 ERA in 25 starts in the upper minors last year, but struggled at the beginning of this season with 9 runs allowed in 12 ²⁄₃ innings at Triple-A. He throws a 95 mph four-seamer that has been very hittable, with a slider, splitter, sweeper, and curve.

Saturday features one of the best pitching matchups in baseball - both Cole Ragans and Garrett Crochet are among the top six in baseball in fWAR since the start of last year. Crochet has given up more than two runs in a start just once this season, and opponents are hitting just .183/.265/.251 against him. Despite his time with the White Sox, this is just his second career start against the Royals, although he made several relief appearances. Crochet throws hard with a 96 mph fastball, but its his sweeper that has a 47 percent whiff rate.

Lucas Giolito missed all of last year and April of this year after Tommy John surgery. He had a quality start in his first outing against the Blue Jays, but couldn’t get out of the fourth inning, giving up six runs against the Rangers his last time out. His velocity is down considerably from his prime years and opponents are hitting .375 against his fastball this year. Salvador Perez is a career .432/.432/.946 hitter with five home runs in 37 plate appearances against Giolito.

The Red Sox bullpen has been average with a 3.85 ERA, but their 3.25 FIP is fourth-best and they have the lowest walk rate. Nevertheless, they are tied for the lead for most blown saves with eight. Former Royals reliever Aroldis Chapman is five-for-five in save opportunities and is tenth in strikeout rate among relievers. Brennan Bernardino has the 11th-lowest walk rate and lefties are hitting just .188/.235/.375 against him. Justin Slaten has a 55 percent flyball rate, eighth-highest in baseball. Greg Weissert has one of the most effective fastballs with opponents hitting just .160 against it with a 27.8 percent whiff rate.

The Red Sox took four of six from the Royals last year, including two of three at the K. The Red Sox are a good team, but they’ve played like a .500 team much of the year. They’re coming off a 3-3 homestand against Twins and Rangers and are 9-10 on the road this year. The Royals are rolling right now and can make a statement with a decisive series win over the Red Sox.