Checking in on Guardians Prospects After One Month

Which players are standing out so far?

It’s an off-day for the Guardians, time to check in on the minor-league affiliates now that all of them have had at least a month’s work of games.

In the columns below, I’ll give you the standout hitters and pitchers from Guardians’ Triple-A, Double-A, High-A and Single-A affiliates. I’ll be looking at their Weighted Runs Created plus or wRC+ (100 is average, this helps us adjust for the overall offensive performance of their respective leagues), their strikeout-walk percentage or numbers per 9 innings, their swinging strike rate (this helps us eliminate umpire inconsistency and poor opponent quality), and their pulled and fly ball rates (pulling the ball in the air is the most effective way to produce runs). When notable, I’ll mention a player’s age and/or groundball rates for pitchers.

Hitters:
Columbus:
CJ Kayfus LHH 23 year-old, 1B/cOF (from Akron and Columbus) – 202 wRC+, 21.2/13.5 K/BB%, 15.5 Swinging Strike%, 38.5/26.9 Pulled Rate/Fly Ball Rate
Johnathan Rodriguez RHH 25 y.o., DH/cOF – 161 wRC+, 23.7/13.5 K/BB%, 11.5% SwStr, 17.5/44.1 P/F
Petey Halpin – LHH 23 y.o., CF, 121 wRC+, 29.8/11.4 K/BB%, 12.6% SwStr, 43.1/36.8 P/F

Analysis: Zero doubt that the best hitter in the Guardians’ system so far has been CJ Kayfus, but it is important to note he still has a LOT of swing and miss in his game and doesn’t really pull many fly balls. But, man, he hits everything hard. It’s tough to see how a player who is best at first base would figure on to the current Guardians’ roster, but if he keeps hitting like this, they will find a way. Rodriguez continues to hit the ball hard, but he hits so many groundballs, I wonder if the team believes in him. Finally, after wondering why the Guardians’ added Halpin in the Rule 5, his hitting numbers as a player who looks viable as a defender in centerfield have mostly cleared that up. He’s also 4 for 5 with stolen bases this season which is a big pick-up so far in his success rates from past seasons.

Akron:
Jorge Burgos – LHH 23 y.o., 1B/OF, 140 wRC+, 25.5/12.3 K/BB%, 14.7% SwStr, 43.8/53.1 P/F
Cooper Ingle – LHH 23 y.o., C, 135 wRC+, 22.9/17.4 K/BB%, 8% SwStr, 44.6/43.1 P/F
Kahlil Watson – LHH 22 y.o., LF/CF, 134 wRC+, 26.1/8.4 K/BB%, 14.1% SwStr, 50/37.2 P/F
Travis Bazzana – LHH 22 y.o., 2B, 118 wRC+, 26.8/10.4 K/BB%, 7.4 % SwStr, 49.3/44 P/F

Analysis: There are a LOT of interesting hitters in Akron. First, Cooper Ingle continues to look like he will absolutely be an above average hitting big league catcher someday IF he can get the defensive side down well enough. Burgos and Watson, meanwhile, have been smoking the ball pull-side and looking like they should make their way to Columbus later in the year (things will be CROWDED there). Both do have some pretty significant swing-and-miss to their game, but both will take walks and make lots of quality contact, plus Watson looks viable in center. While Burgos’ final defensive fit is hard to see, I think he’s competent to play left or first. Finally, there’s a lot of hand-wringing about Bazzana given the rapid success of his fellow 2025 draftees like Braden Montgomery, Nick Kurtz and JJ Wetherholt. But, I would preach patience for Guardians’ fans. He’s not whiffing, he’s pulling fly-balls and he’s taking walks. If watching games, you’ll notice that NO ONE is giving him anything inside to hit. He will get the quality contact/plate discipline piece down for all the outside pitches he’s getting and, then, I expect him to take off. His defense looks above average, so far, which is a big deal.

Lake County:
Christian Knapczyk – LHH 23 y.o., SS, 161 wRC+, 14.6/13.6 K/BB%, 9.8% SwStr, 45/33.8 P/F
Jonah Advincula – LHH 24 y.o., LF/CF/RF, 143 wRC+, 13.9/16.5 K/BB%, 6.9 SwStr, 45.3/34 P/F
Alfonsin Rosario – RHH 21 y.o., RF, 136 wRC+, 20.6/6.2 K/BB%, 16.8% SwStr, 50/40.6 P/F
Johnny Tincher – RHH 23 y.o., C, 125 wRC+, 16.3/20.9 K/BB%, 7.4 SwStr, 46.4/50 P/F
Jaison Chourio – SH 20 y.o., LF/CF, 108 wRC+ (only a .269 BABIP), 18.7/23.1 K/BB%, 8.3% SwStr, 29.4/30.8 P/F

Analysis: Knapczyk has been somewhat of a revelation and his numbers look really good across the board, while playing good defense at short. Advincula is old for the level but should get a shot in Akron soon. Rosario swings-and-misses a lot but he has shown, so far, enough ability to get to his elite exit velocity and pull balls to make fans dream on a future major league corner outfielder. Tincher may be the most underrated Guardians’ prospect right now; his age is not particularly old for the level as a catcher and he is showing excellent plate discipline and the ability to pull fly balls. Keep your eye on this kid. Chourio has had the usual bumps in the road for a 20 year-old hitter in High-A, but you can see he’s been having some bad luck with the low batting-average-on-balls-in-play. However, he does have some work to do to beat the “slap-hitter” allegations.

Lynchburg:
Bennett Thompson – RHH 22 y.o., C, 165 wRC+, 14/17.4 K/BB%, 6.6% SwStr, 55.4/37.7 P/F
Tommy Hawke – LHH 22 y.o., LF/CF/RF, 135 wRC+, 20.4/19.5, K/BB%, 4.1% SwStr, 34.8/23.8 P/F
Jeffrey Mercedes – SH 20 y.o., 3B/2B, 132 wRC+, 23.2/11.6, K/BB%, 12.7% SwStr, 48.8/42.9 P/F

Analysis: Are the Guardians a catcher factory now?? Thompson’s hitting numbers look INSANE, so if he can stick as a catcher defensively, this is a player you’ll see ranked in their top 20 prospects by midseason. Hawke is a very good slap-hitter type who exercises elite plate discipline; the kind of player ticketed for a major-league bench role in the majors, especially given he has stolen 33 bases on 34 attempts already. Mercedes joins Tincher and Thompson as surprises on this list as he’s shown an advanced approach at the plate and the ability to hit a lot of balls hard so far. He doesn’t look great defensively to me, but it’s early.

Pitchers:
Columbus:
Parker Messick, 24 y.o., LHSP – 3.84 FIP, 12.69/4.23 K/BB/9, 16.3% SwStr
Slade Cecconi, 25 y.o., RHSP (in a small sample) – 2.42 FIP, 8.59/2.45 K/BB/9, 18% SwStr, 52.4% Groundball

Analysis: I think we probably see Cecconi in the majors for either Logan Allen or perhaps Gavin Williams or Luis Ortiz if either pitcher struggles to find consistency in the next couple weeks. He’s getting whiffs and groundballs so far, and I think his stuff plays now. Messick has to command the ball a little bit better and then he’ll be making his major league debut before you know it, perhaps first as the second-starter in a double-header.

Akron:
Rodney Boone, 25 y.o., LHSP – 2.58 FIP, 10.38/2.49 K/BB/9, 16.8% SwStr
Aaron Davenport, 24 y.o., RHSP – 4.15 FIP, 8.79/1.88 K/BB/9, 11.2% SwStr
Austin Peterson, 24 y.o., RHSP – 3.12 FIP, 7.42/0.67 K/BB/9, 11.2% SwStr
Special mention for Tommy Mace, RHSP 26 y.o. – walking too many right now but a 47% groundball rate

Analysis: Boone has been an absolute revelation so far and is going to force his way to Columbus in the next month if this continues. Davenport and Peterson are also very interesting due to their elite command and control, but probably we’ll need to see a slight uptick in either strikeouts or groundballs for them to get to the next level. Peterson just looks like a major league arm to me, and I think his ability to limit hard contact sticks there. I like Tommy Mace for his ability to induce groundballs, but his walk rate north of 4 per 9 will keep him in Akron until he addresses it, and, at his age, time is running out.

Lake County:
Steven Perez 24 y.o., LHRP – 2.41 FIP, 10.93/1.29 K/BB/9, 15.9% SwStr
Josh Hartle 22 y.o., LHSP – 2.97 FIP, 10.53/4.58 K/BB/9, 11.5 SwStr (65 Groundball Rate!)

Analysis: Perez needs to be in Akron tomorrow. He looks like an elite lefty reliever at the moment but needs tougher competition. Early returns on both players in the Andres Gimenez-Spencer Horwitz trade with the Pirates look good for Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy. Kennedy is hurt right now and needs to find some better command, but Hartle is absolutely sawing every hitter off and getting plenty of strikeouts. I’d like to see him in Akron before the All-Star break if some of those Rubber Ducks pitchers can get a promotion to Columbus.

Lynchburg:
Braylon Doughty RHSP 19 y.o., – 2.55, 12.81/3.20 K/BB/9, 13.5 SwStr%, (60% groundball)
Jogly Garcia RHSP 21 y.o., – 1.84 FIP, 17.85/6.41 K/BB/9, 15.4 SwStr%,
Izaak Martinez LHRP 23 y.o., – 2.24 FIP, 12.27/1.23 K/BB/9, 13 SwStr%,
Sean Matson RHRP 23 y.o., – 2.38 FIP, 12.27/3.07 K/BB/9, 17.4 SwStr%, (52.9% groundball)
Rafe Schlesinger LHSP 22 y.o., – 2.89 FIP, 9.39/3.52 K/BB/9, 11.3 SwStr%, (57.8% groundball)

Analysis: This is a VERY interesting group of pitchers, including relievers in Martinez and Matson who are destroying weak competition so far, Doughty showing himself to be a top 10 prospect in the Guardians’ system and rising, and Garcia and Schlesinger indicating that attention should be paid to their elite strikeout rates in Garcia’s case and elite groundball rate in Rafe’s case. If you’re watch Hillcats games or checking their box scores, highlight these names to see if they can force their way up to Lake County at some point.

Despite some rumbling to the contrary, I think the beginning to the minor league season for the Guardians has been very strong, overall. Welbyn Francisca’s struggle to adjust to low-A is probably the biggest disappointment, followed by Ralphy Velazquez’s incredibly slow start. Of course, injury-wise Juan Brito and Angel Genao’s ailments sting. However, everywhere else you look, there are solid-good performances from the top prospects and some unexpected breakouts from lesser known names. Let’s hope they can keep it up next time we check in another month from now!