Series Preview: Mets Open Season of Excitement in Houston

The 2025 MLB season is officially here! It doesn’t get much better than this. The New York Mets, coming off a season where they were just two wins away from the World Series, have steep expectations and rightfully so. After all, adding a player of Juan Soto‘s caliber is a complete game-changer within the context of the National League. The Mets will begin the season against the Houston Astros, who had some significant changes in the offseason. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and third baseman Alex Bregman departed, while first baseman Christian Walker and third baseman Isaac Paredes were brought in. Let’s discuss the pitching matchups for this upcoming series.

Pitching Matchups

• Thursday: Clay Holmes (2024 Statistics: 3-5, 3.14 ERA) vs. Framber Valdez (2024 Statistics: 15-7, 2.91 ERA): Opening Day is an important one for Holmes. For the first time since 2018 and just the fifth time in his career, the right-hander will start a big league game. His adjustment from pitching one inning to five innings or more will be interesting to watch early on in the season. In spring training, Holmes looked sharp in his new role, with a 0.93 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings. Valdez had another strong campaign in 2024, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA for the second time in the last three years. The two-time All-Star did not begin the season in his best form, but over his final 12 starts in 2024, he went 7-2 with a 1.96 ERA across 78 innings.
• Friday: Tylor Megill (2024 Statistics: 4-5, 4.04 ERA) vs. Hunter Brown (2024 Statistics: 11-9, 3.49 ERA): Megill will begin the season in the big league rotation, largely due to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas being sidelined through injury. Can he take advantage of that opportunity? Certainly one to watch. Megill made four starts this spring, pitching to a 4.24 ERA in 17 innings. Brown is seen as someone who could take a massive step forward in 2025. Last season, he threw five different pitches at least 12 percent of the time, giving him a multitude of weapons to play off his four-seam fastball is a dangerous combination. Brown ended last season on a high note, going 4-3 with a 2.26 ERA over his final 12 starts.
• Saturday: Griffin Canning (2024 Statistics: 6-13, 5.19 ERA) vs. Spencer Arrighetti (2024 Statistics: 7-13, 4.53 ERA): Canning is coming off a season to forget. His 99 earned runs allowed in 2024 was the worst mark in all of baseball. Can a change of scenery make a significant impact for Canning? His numbers in spring show that could be the case, as he posted a 1.88 ERA in 14 1/3 innings. A good start to the year will significantly impact his role the rest of the way. Arrighetti dealt with a lot of ups and downs in his rookie season. In the first half, he really struggled to a 5.63 ERA in 17 starts. His second half was definitely better, recording 3.18 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts). He could be an important x-factor for an Astros rotation in need of some quality depth.

What’s The Story?

Soto will command a majority of the headlines, given the contract he signed in the offseason. His offensive profile to go along with the likes of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo could make for an elite offense. The Mets had a very potent lineup in 2024. Adding Soto should allow them to cause all kinds of problems for opposing pitchers. In addition to that, one point of focus is the injuries. The team will be without Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil to begin the season. That means others will have an opportunity to shine and become mainstays on the big league roster. That group includes Brett Baty, Hayden Senger, Megill and Canning, among others. If any of those players can break through, it could go a long way for this group.

Prediction 

It’s always difficult to call the first series of the season. Both teams have a lot to prove, which should make for a fascinating matchup. The Astros have the starting pitching advantage, at least on paper, but with the way Holmes and Canning have pitched in the buildup to the regular season, their performances in Houston will have a big part to play. With the Mets having one of the deepest lineups in baseball, even without Alvarez, I like their chances this weekend. The Mets take two of three against the Astros, including a home run from Soto on his official debut.

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