Steamer Projections for Mets’ 2025 Hitters

Following a strong offseason, the 2025 New York Mets should be in a solid spot for playoff contention. They signed generational talent Juan Soto to a record-shattering $15-year, $765 million deal. Then, they bolstered their rotation, re-signing Sean Manaea and adding Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas. They brought back Pete Alonso, Ryne Stanek and Jesse Winker. They acquired Jose Siri from the Rays to patrol center field.

Below are Steamer projections for the 2025 Mets hitters, which can help you better understand how the Mets will compete in the tough NL East.

Steamer Projections

• Francisco Lindor, SS: .258/.336/.454, 23 SB, 26 HR, 77 RBI, 123 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR, (9.6 DEF)
• Juan Soto, RF: .283/.422/.541, 32 HR, 89 RBI, 170 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR, (-12.0 DEF)
• Mark Vientos, 3B: .250/.314/.472, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 120 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR, (0.4 DEF)
• Pete Alonso 1B: .239/.330/.476, 35 HR, 95 RBI, 125 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR, (-13.4 DEF)
• Brandon Nimmo, LF: .253/.348/.418, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 120 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR, (2.5 DEF)
• Jesse Winker DH: .244/.356/.399, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 118 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, (-9.0 DEF)
• Starling Marte, DH: .264/.321/.398, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 105 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, (-6.4 DEF)
• Jeff McNeil, 2B: .272/.333/.398, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 109 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, (0.3 DEF)
• Francisco Alvarez, C: .238/.315/.442, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 114 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, (1.1 DEF)
• Brett Baty, 3B: .239/.313/.398, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 103 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, (0.6 DEF)
• Jose Siri, CF: .206/.266/.386, 12 SB, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 84 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, (3.4 DEF)
• Tyrone Taylor, OF: .237/.292/.408, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 97 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, (-2.4 DEF)
• Luis Torrens, C: .226/.287/.370, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 87 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR (5.6 DEF)
• Luisangel Acuña, INF: .251/.296/.367, 11 SB, 4 HR, 243RBI, 88 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR, (2.7 DEF)

Total Projected 2025 Hitters fWAR: 29.1

2024 Hitters fWAR: 25.9

While the model projects “down” years from Lindor and Soto, Nimmo and McNeil look to return to their norm after experiencing bad luck at the plate in 2024. Nimmo’s uncharacteristically low .267 BABIP in 2024 proved poor luck at times, while Steamer projects a more Nimmo-like .302 BABIP for 2025. Vientos looks to produce similarly to 2024 as he prepares for his first full season in the majors.

Observations

Yes, Lindor and Soto performed better than their 2024 projections, and I expect them to outperform their projections once more — those shouldn’t be cause for concern. To put their fWAR projections into perspective, the 6.0 fWAR from Soto would rank fourth among position players, and the 5.3 fWAR from Lindor would rank ninth.

The significant bats to get back on track for 2025 have always been Nimmo and McNeil — they were a hindrance to the team’s failures at times during 2024. McNeil’s strikeout percentage in 2024 was a career-worst 14.4%. Steamer projects he’ll lower that to 12.7%, which is still high for the Flying Squirrel but an improvement. Like Nimmo, McNeil’s BABIP projects a return to normalcy in 2025. McNeil was extremely pull-happy in 2024 (44.2%) and looks to return to utilizing the entire field in 2025.

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