What has to go right for the Royals to win it all in 2025

What are the biggest factors for success?

Last season, the Royals had their breakout year, greatly exceeding expectations and making the playoffs for the first time since 2015 when they won the World Series. Bobby Witt Jr. became the star of Kansas City, putting up MVP numbers by hitting .332/.389/.588 while also being one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Royals starting pitchers finished the season with the second-best ERA in the MLB at 3.55 and looked significantly improved from years prior.

Going into this season, the Royals were able to return most of the players that sparked their playoff run in 2024. They also were able to make significant moves like trading for Jonathan India and adding Carlos Estevez. These moves gave the Royals a key leadoff hitter and helped bolster the back of their bullpen, both of which were significant struggles for the Royals in 2024.

Coming into the 2025 season, expectations are high for what this team can achieve, and after their performance in 2024, high expectations may be warranted. The Royals clearly got better on paper this season, and if these players can provide the boost that the Royals are hoping to see, they could be one of the best teams in baseball. You could even double down and say that if all goes according to plan, they could win it all. Today I look at how the Royals can find their way back to the World Series and what needs to happen for them to win it all.

Bobby Witt Jr. continues being one of the best players in baseball

Bobby Witt Jr is the star of Kansas City baseball, and proved to be the key to the Royals offense in 2024. Bobby Witt Jr. finished second in the AL MVP race in 2024 after having the best season of his career, displaying a true five-tool skill set. Witt is the star of Kansas City, with good contact and power at the plate, as well as speed on the bases. Witt is also an elite defensive shortstop at the most valuable defensive position on the diamond.

This year, the team has added some help, with a leadoff hitter in front of him as well as some hope for development at other positions behind him. This year, for the first time, Bobby will have a true on-base guy in front of him and he can get aggressive at the plate to move the line. The Royals are hoping for development from other players, but the team will need to ride their star if they want to go as far as they can this season.

Jonathan India finishes with at least a .330 OBP

The Royals number one priority this offseason, was to go out and get a leadoff hitter who can get on base in front of Bobby Witt Jr and their other top hitters. JJ Piccolo did just that, getting aggressive and trading away starting pitcher and former top prospect Brady Singer to go get India from the Reds.

India has a career on-base percentage of .352 and finished 2024 at .357. This year India has made his goal clear, to get on base as often as possible. This season, India will be followed up by an MVP candidate, as well as two of the top run producers in the league - Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez.

The Royals leadoff hitters finished dead last in OBP last year at .270, even worse than the lowly White Sox. The Royals rotated through several hitters, but were never quite able to put it together consistently throughout the season. Simply put, the Royals were abysmal getting on base in front of Bobby Witt Jr., and they made it their top priority to fix that this season.

No team wants to put someone on base in front of Bobby and they will attack Jonathan India and make him swing the bat. If India can effectively take long at-bats and continue to get on base at a high clip in 2025, he can make a massive impact on the offense this season.

Trade for a middle-of-the-order bat at the deadline

The Royals added Mark Cahna via trade earlier this week, but the Royals outfield remains weaker than they many had hoped for going into this season. The team will be counting on development from MJ Melendez, as well as more production from other guys like Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Isbel at the plate. The Royals have even tried players like Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey to the outfield to try to get an offensive boost.

If the Royals reach the trade deadline and are contenders in the AL, they will likely look to get aggressive to make additions offensively. Some of those options may include guys like Alec Burleson, Taylor Ward, and Adolis Garcia who all could be available at the trade deadline if their teams struggle this summer. If they get to the trade deadline, and find themselves in the driver's seat, we know J.J. Piccolo is willing to get aggressive and make the team better.

The Royals’ roster is solid, and their offense should be improved from last season, but the truth is, you can always improve. Making a move at the deadline, to add another hitter in the middle of the order can help provide consistency as well as depth in case of injury could be important come August.

The bullpen has a sub-3.70 ERA with a 25% or better strikeout rate

The Royals found success in 2024 despite bullpen struggles, especially to start the season. Royals relievers had an ERA of 4.42 by the end of May with the worst strikeout percentage in baseball. The unit showed improvement, and finished the year with a 4.13 ERA, but was still third-worst in the MLB in strikeout percentage.

The Royals put work into their bullpen, over the last year, adding several key names last season they hope can contribute in 2025. Lucas Erceg was the MLB leader in fWAR after the start of August and the team hopes Hunter Harvey can return from injury and return to form.

The Royals also added Carlos Estévez this offseason on a two-year deal they hope can bolster the back of their bullpen. Estévez has 57 saves over the last two years and should fill the closer role, allowing Harvey to be the setup guy and Erceg to come in and get outs when ever the team needs him.

Championship teams get leads, and they don’t let go. The Royals organization knew this, and they strengthened their bullpen mightily over the last year and they hope to see immense improvement from their unit this season. If this unit can lock down games, and get strikeouts, they could help lead the Royals as far as they want to go.

Erceg and Estévez finish with 40 combined saves

The Royals have a good team and hope to win a lot of games in 2025. But that means they will be in a lot of close games, and will likely lean on their star relievers to get them across the finish line.

As I mentioned above, Lucas Erceg was one of the best relievers in all of baseball after he landed in KCI, and will likely get some chances to close out games. But most of the save opportunities will be reserved for newly acquired free agent, Carlos Estévez.

Both Erceg and Estévez saw dips in velocity in spring training, with Estévez slowly ramping up after dealing with lower back tightness early in spring training. But if both Erceg and Estevez can sit upper-90s and return to form the way they were last season, they could be one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. After having some late-inning struggles in 2024, the Royals will lean on their veterans including Erceg and Estévez to close out games. If the two can find consistent success closing games, the Royals will make it very hard to take a series in 2025.

Kris Bubic throws 150 innings with a sub-4 ERA

I saved this take for last, not because I think it is the least important, but because I think it is the most likely to happen. This stat line was achieved by the four of the five starters in the Royals rotation in 2024. Confidence in Kris Bubic was a big reason why the team felt comfortable moving on from Brady Singer.

Bubic returned to the Royals out of the bullpen mid-season in 2024, after he completed his recovery from Tommy John surgery. This will be Bubic’s first full season in the starting rotation since 2022 and he has never pitched more than 130 innings in his career.

Bubic was electric out of the bullpen last season and was one of the team’s best relievers down the stretch. He posted a 2.67 ERA over 30.1 innings with just shy of 40 strikeouts. The Royals have put a lot of trust into Bubic to return to the rotation in 2025 despite his bullpen success last season.

Bubic won the fourth starter spot out of camp, effectively replacing Brady Singer and Michael Lorenzen filling the last spot in the rotation. Singer had a career year in 2024, with almost 180 total innings and an ERA of 3.17, leaving Bubic with some big shoes to fill.

If Bubic is able to achieve similar production to Singer (which I think he can do with ease) in 2025, the Royals will likely have a top 5 rotation in baseball again this season.

The Royals will need a lot of things to go their way (none of which is impossible) if they want to win it all this season. They will need their star players like Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans and Lucas Erceg to return to form, and will need production from their new additions as well. If guys like Carlos Estévez and Kris Bubic can exceed expectations, and their stars can return to form, they will be in a very good spot to win it all. The last step will be adding a key player at the deadline who can help contribute down the stretch, but if all goes right, this is a team that can beat anyone in baseball.

What do you think needs to happen for this team to win it all?