Five Dumb Predictions for the 2025 Cincinnati Reds

Is this finally the year where they do the things they haven’t done in an entire generation?

Despite once again underperforming relative to the hopes and dreams of fans throughout the region in 2024, the Cincinnati Reds did not hit the personnel panic button this offseason.

Yes, they canned David Bell and hired a bona fide Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona. What they didn’t do, though, was blow up a roster that they had built conscientiously over the last half-decade in pursuit of quick, possibly non-sustainable glory.

They did not sign Anthony Santander to possibly add established thump into the lineup. Rather than aiming high at the likes of Alex Bregman to address potential infield concerns, they swapped international bonus pool funds for Gavin Lux.

They doubled down on what commitments they had already made. This team, if it is to head to any sort of glory, will do so on the backs of Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene. It will be dragged there by Matt McLain and Jeimer Candelario, by Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez.

Once again, the Reds enter a season hoping to be a team they have never yet been rather than a team that, on paper, already appears to have made it. The front office and ownership need this club to be, collectively, better than it has ever been in order to achieve success, and it is that promise that has once again reeled all of us in.

With that in mind, and with the new season dawning tomorrow, here are Five Dumb Predictions for the 2025 Cincinnati Reds season.

Nick Lodolo clears 150 IP, leads all Reds pitchers in WAR

Another year, another dumb prediction of Nick Lodolo emerging as a legitimate ace.

It’s hard to quit, I’ll admit. I’m still as tantalized by his upside today as I was when he first emerged back in 2022 and finished 6th in the NL’s Rookie of the Year voting.

Since then, he’s been limited to 28 total starts across two seasons, with an extended shin injury followed by issues with a finger, his back, his calf, a groin, blisters, head, shoulders, knees, & toes, knees & toes.

(Head, shoulders, Lodolo, Lodolo...I digress.)

Anyway, I think 2025 is the year it all finally comes together for Nick, both in terms of health and production. He’s in his arbitration years now, and production at this juncture is the kind of thing that can set a pitcher up financially for the rest of his life. Stars will align, health will prevail, and we’ll get to see ~27 or so starts of him helping lead the line alongside Hunter Greene, and his stuff will be so good he’ll actually end up the team’s leader in WAR.

5.2 bWAR incoming!

TJ Friedl steals 40 bags

Of all the things we were robbed of in 2024 with the spate of serious injuries across the Cincinnati roster, none pained me to see as much as TJ Friedl’s hamstrings. His freak wrist and thumb injuries were frustrating, sure, but his hammy problems sapped the speed that made him not just an elite defensive CF, but also a demon on the basepaths.

Those attributes helped make him a 4 WAR player in 2023, and 4 WAR CFs just don’t grow on trees. When TJ is right, he’s an absolutely elite weapon both on the field, in the lineup, and - for the Reds - on the bases atop the lineup.

If his hamstrings stay loose this year, I think he emerges even further as a threat on-base ahead of the thumpers developing in the middle of the order behind him, and a 40+ steal season is 1,000% on the table for him.

Sal Stewart is a key cog in the infield by season’s end

Back in 2023, the Reds still had Joey Votto entrenched at 1B when healthy. Spencer Steer emerged as a do-it-all infield option, while both Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain made their dizzying debuts. Jonathan India was the everyday 2B, the ghost of Nick Senzel was getting starts at the hot corner, and Jose Barrero was working his way around the diamond in a last gasp of top prospect relevance.

In other words, the infield mix looked incredibly crowded. Still, Noelvi Marte managed to hit his way right into the mix and became a rock in the lineup down the stretch despite there being so many other names seemingly ‘ahead’ of him.

I think Sal Stewart hits his way into a similar path in 2025. The kid has an absolutely elite eye at the plate, and only a freak off-the-field injury kept him from hitting his way to AA last year. He’ll start there this year, and I think he’ll keep mashing to AAA in short order, putting him on the cusp of a big league debut as soon as the Reds need - or want - him to do so.

Will he take over 3B? Maybe. Jeimer Candelario looked iffy there last year, Marte faltered terribly, and Gavin Lux has never really played there at all.

Will he claim 1B? Maybe CES is better suited for DH duties, and Sal stakes his claim there.

Doesn’t matter - he’s going to hit his way into a regular role down the stretch with this club, and maybe even lead the offense in the process. His bat is just that good.

Elly De La Cruz socks 44 dingers

It was certainly easy to get lost in just how many plays Elly made with his legs last year, how many steals he logged and how many extra bases he swiped even when opposing teams were looking right at him with the ball in their hand.

He’s going to keep swiping bags this year, sure. He’s also going to hit 3rd in the lineup most nights, it would appear, and will have Friedl (above) and Matt McLain on-base ahead of him a lot of the time clogging up those bases.

Elly will literally fall into a 35 steal season, but what I think takes him to the next stratosphere in 2025 is that light tower power of his. He’s not just going to up his dinger total from 25 to 30 this year, he’s going to take it all the way over 40. Hell, he gets to hit in GABP for 81 games, that may well be on the extremely low end!

Let’s say 44 homers, since Elly and 44 are just a match made in heaven.

The Reds - yes, the Reds - make the playoffs

Is it farfetched? Yes.

Is it impossible to fathom? Also yes, sort of - they just simply haven’t been there in a full season in a really, really long time.

The injuries have already begun to mount, with the likes of Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, Rhett Lowder, and Andrew Abbott all set to miss the beginning of the season. Every other team out there is going to run into that kind of issue though, too.

Still, there’s an air of confidence around this club that can only be described as Franconian, and the National League Central division is devoid of clubs truly on a different echelon than the Reds in terms of talent. When the talent is equal and the leadership suddenly emerges, that makes for epic breakouts, and it just feels like this is finally, mercifully a window for that to materialize in the form of the Reds.

Cincinnati’s going to win 89 games this year and make it to the playoffs. Just don’t ask me what happens when they get there.